Cambridgeshire

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
Messages
19,124
Location
Leyland
My favourite flat race run in the UK, mainly I admit because I've found the winner quite a few times since Risen Moon back in the day. Bronze Angel I was mad about tracker wise since he ran a stormer from a bad draw in the Britannia back in 2012 and I was on for both his wins in the race but he's way too high in the handicap now and at single figures he makes no appeal. My tentative selection this year is Express Himself who will love the test this race brings. He's a fast finishing beast who loves a decent pace to go at. I say tentative because I normally jettison horses from my tracker after they've won but his win from Birdman at Haydock in June was such a mouth watering eye-catcher (lost at least 3 lengths at the start before powering home) that I had to keep him onside. He's 28/1 in a place and as ever we have good each way terms for this race.
 
I had a look on Third Time Lucky but price is gane after a gamble today.
what do You think about Man of Harlech?
 
He was in the Lightning Spear/Saigon City race at Salisbury. Wonder why he hasn't got a claimer on like last time? Not sure he'll stay.
 
I've spent a fair bit of time looking at this race and have taken a few ante post positions.One of the biggest bets being Munaaser who was withdrawn a couple of stages ago after being well supported so I've already taken a decent hit before the off and I'll be lucky to come out even.After seeing the draw today I think its going to get a bit messy.Most of the better horses have been drawn high but there looks a distinct lack of front runners over there.It might well pay to be prominent on that side.Polar Forest (26) Ifwecan (20) and Nafaqa look to be the only ones who may make the running.I've had a decent bet on Nafaqa ante post but no bigger price that what is available now.His Newmarket form reads fairly well,a 2nd to Elm Park in the Royal Lodge here as a 2yo only beaten a length.2nd to Kool Kompany in the Craven staying on at the finish and given that Kool Kompany had a fairly easy time of it on the lead I think Nafaqa was worthy of a small upgrade. Nafaqa also finished a close up 4th to Peacock over 10f here which looks fairly good especially considering that I don't think Nafaqa really stays that trip and dropping back a furlong here can only help him.His form at other tracks this season hasn't been good his York and Ascot runs look poor but in fairness he doesn't seem to like going around a bend, he pulls very hard as he does and tends to blow his chances.He was given a break after Royal Ascot and I presume Barry Hills had this in mind for him.He had what looked like a run to blow off the cob webs and put him spot on for this at Doncaster over 10.5f 2 weeks ago and ran well enough to show himself in good order.Back in trip and with the ideal preparation I think he'll be going close at around 20/1.

Another one that may well run a big race at a price is Dragon Fie currently 50/1 with BV.She's an interesting one who again was given a mid season break and had what also looked like a prep run for this in a group 3 a week or so ago. She won a decent handicap back in May but the standout piece of her form with hindsight came at Navan where she narrowly failed to give now Group winner Curvy a stone and went down by half a length.Admittedly Curvy's performance would have been upgraded by the sectional boys and she may well have improved since but which ever way you look at it its not a bad piece of form. Her next run came over here in a 12F Group 3 where unfortunately for me she didn't do the business as I'd loaded a decent bet at a massive price. She travelled beautifully throughout the race and was boxed in all the way down the straight by the time she saw daylight the race was over.In fairness when she did see daylight she didn't exactly take off but it may have been a case that the trip was a little too far,her 7th place finish and the beaten distance doesn't really do her justice.A mark of 92 seems more than fair and Ed Greatrex claims a handy 5lb off that.She's drawn fairly low and there looks like a couple of likely front runners over there, she likes to sit fairly handy so hopefully they'll give her a nice lead into the race.She certainly is not a 50/1 poke in my opinion.

My biggest bet in the race is Halation and I'm not sure what to make of him after a disappointing performance at Doncaster a couple of weeks ago. Clutching at straws I could make some excuses for the performance.On all previous form he looked a likely sort and still holds a punchers chance I suppose but with a lack of pace over on his side I'm not as confident as I was when I laid my wedge out.I'd covered why I gave him a chance on the daily picks thread if anyone hasn't seen it and is interested.

It would be a magnificent feat if Bronze Angel could win a third Cambridgeshire. I'm not quite as dismissive of his chances of doing so as Euro in fact until he picked up his 4lb penalty I thought he had a reasonable chance of completing the hatrick as he'd won off 105 and was off 104 here, 108 now with the penalty :(.Was he off 99 when he won it last year ? He certainly did it with a degree of comfort and I'm not sure another 5lb would have stopped him ,9lb might have done. I agree with Euro at his current price he can be left well alone but if he does the business on Saturday and pulls this off and your not on your feet applauding you're either dead inside or a complete vegetable.

I read a bit of Gigilo's thread and saw he'd put up Energia Davos at 40's.At the time I thought it a bit far fetched as the form lines and the improvement of horses mentioned seemed to be a bit far back for my liking. However his victory at Ascot looked as easy as you like and he put away some decent yardsticks and didn't look like he had a hard race which for me is a positive because he was coming back from a break and if he'd had a hard race I think he'd have been less likely to reproduce his form here.It looked to me like picking up the 4lb penalty wasn't the plan and like Spencer was thinking for a moment about not letting him win but I don't think he had a lot of choice in the end as the horse travelled so well.Cracking shout by Gig and for those of you on at 40's you have a cracking bet.

I had sort of made a case for proverbial dog Abseil on my other forum as he was a big price however todays shock news of the return of Ryan Moore and the fact this is his mount has seen his price half.Not for me at that price,WOOF!.

No point stating the obvious for the likes of GM Hopkins,Third Time lucky,Portage and the others as their chances really are fairly obvious and prices now match accordingly.

Made a bit of a mess of the race myself with the Ante post betting so I'm buggered before I start really but hope you guys have better luck with it.
 
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Gig knows his stuff so I have a sniff on Energia Davos. Bet to nothing really at that price with Gig's backing and given the amount of money I have won off the last three years following him I'd kick myself for not having a few quid on it each way. Note Jane C-H half owns the horse also.

I agree on the additional weight for Bronze Angel, be surprised if he isn't in top 5 though with a chance of winning it two out. I'll have a look at Dragon Fie...
 
Could the first time hood bring out the neccesary improvement from the O Meara trained Earth Drummer. Could any of you guys write a critique of him? He looks a well bred, consistent and improving type, but didn't set the world alight on his latest outing. I'm in the same boat at Danny as 2 or 3 of my anti post fancies aren't declared, but I'm looking at Earth Drummer now.
 
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Earth Drummer when I originally looked into him looked held by Halation on their Ascot running and I thought the extra furlong would only benefit Halation more to add to that. However as you point out the first time headgear gives it a twist and I'm sure O Meara has employed such tactics before in the big races to good effect,Louis the Pious in the GC last year if memory serves amongst a couple of others. Certainly holds a decent chance you'd have thought marble.

The only one I didn't give a mention to who I thought had a reasonable chance at a big price was Donncha he's been improving all season and I think when I went through his profile I could make decent excuses for every defeat he's had this term. He was well fancied and punted lto at Goodwood but amongst a host of others he got caught out the back of a slow pace and had literally no chance along with the likes of GM Hopkins,Basem and Munaaser all of whom could have been forgiven there poor finishing positions in the circumstances. I do feel he'd need good ground or faster if possible and although unsure about the extra furlong for him I certainly think he's a nice type to be keeping on the right side of.
 
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I like the look of Dragon Fei at a big price as well, and may try again for my 100/1 winner in the shape of Polar Forest.
 
Think Polar is non runner. Alot of the fancy horses are all drawn wide. Might get a bit rough if they all tack across. I've done Forgotten Hero and may do 3rd Time Lucky as well.
 
Coming round to Brendan Bracken, often looks one paced, not ahead of the handicap, but strongly run 9f, nice draw, light campaign this year and almost classy back form, big price.
 
Can't be many recent years when an 84 rated's got into the race, and looks a poor renewal overall.
Abseil may be the reason for Ryan Moore's unheralded return, though they wouldn't have known he'd get a coffin-box draw.
 
A complete and utter horror show for me.Truly awful I don't think anything I fancied finished in the first 10.The likes of Halation and Donncha weren't helped by the draw but they were far from being the best on their side so no excuses really. The winner fair enough can't argue with that and the only reason I didn't have a saver on him was I felt I'd missed the boat as he was certainly 25's maybe bigger in places at the start of the week and was around 14's yesterday although that said his Betfair sp was over 18s and I'm sure at some point yesterday he could have been picked up at 20's on there.The 2nd 3rd 4th and 5th I don't think I'd have found if Id had another 10 picks. I know Steve H who used to frequent FF put up the third at 50/1 so fair play to him as he was probably a bit unlucky in that he wasn't drawn low. Nafaqa was probably my biggest disappointment of the race as had no excuses whatsoever and I was really surprised/completely shocked he ran so badly but judging by his Betfair Sp a lot of people weren't.

Back to the drawing board :(
 
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I read a blog yesterday that picked out 4 of the first 5 home..they it got wrong with My Dream Boat [who I did back because I fancied him] and Polar Falcon who didn't run. As I'm rubbish with this race I'm just going to read the blog next year and back accordingly.
 
I read a blog yesterday that picked out 4 of the first 5 home..they it got wrong with My Dream Boat [who I did back because I fancied him] and Polar Falcon who didn't run. As I'm rubbish with this race I'm just going to read the blog next year and back accordingly.

I'd love to read the reasoning behind Man of Harlech and Master of the world if those two were amongst selections as I find it completely mind blowing how anyone could have made a solid case for either.
 
Re read it...Man of Harlech and Examiner weren't in the top few but Third, Portage,My Dream Boat and Master the World were the 4 top rated ones [I keep getting Man of Harlech and Master the World mixed up]. This was before the draw as well.
 
Apologies I thought 4 of the first 5 meant only 1 selection didn't make it if he didn't have Man of Harlech or examiner then he only had 3 of the first 5.

I wasn't being sarcastic or owt like that I did just mean I'd love to read the cases for them as both had been quite easily held in previous races that is all.
 
I think it was more of a ten year trends analysis. I had it in my head that I must find a 10f horse. To be honest I don't follow the flat to the extent that I knew many of the horses, which is why I got the Man/Master thing mixed up. At least I backed Master Carpenter so I partly got the correct name for the second horse!
 
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