I've spent a fair bit of time looking at this race and have taken a few ante post positions.One of the biggest bets being Munaaser who was withdrawn a couple of stages ago after being well supported so I've already taken a decent hit before the off and I'll be lucky to come out even.After seeing the draw today I think its going to get a bit messy.Most of the better horses have been drawn high but there looks a distinct lack of front runners over there.It might well pay to be prominent on that side.Polar Forest (26) Ifwecan (20) and
Nafaqa look to be the only ones who may make the running.I've had a decent bet on Nafaqa ante post but no bigger price that what is available now.His Newmarket form reads fairly well,a 2nd to Elm Park in the Royal Lodge here as a 2yo only beaten a length.2nd to Kool Kompany in the Craven staying on at the finish and given that Kool Kompany had a fairly easy time of it on the lead I think Nafaqa was worthy of a small upgrade. Nafaqa also finished a close up 4th to Peacock over 10f here which looks fairly good especially considering that I don't think Nafaqa really stays that trip and dropping back a furlong here can only help him.His form at other tracks this season hasn't been good his York and Ascot runs look poor but in fairness he doesn't seem to like going around a bend, he pulls very hard as he does and tends to blow his chances.He was given a break after Royal Ascot and I presume Barry Hills had this in mind for him.He had what looked like a run to blow off the cob webs and put him spot on for this at Doncaster over 10.5f 2 weeks ago and ran well enough to show himself in good order.Back in trip and with the ideal preparation I think he'll be going close at around 20/1.
Another one that may well run a big race at a price is
Dragon Fie currently 50/1 with BV.She's an interesting one who again was given a mid season break and had what also looked like a prep run for this in a group 3 a week or so ago. She won a decent handicap back in May but the standout piece of her form with hindsight came at Navan where she narrowly failed to give now Group winner Curvy a stone and went down by half a length.Admittedly Curvy's performance would have been upgraded by the sectional boys and she may well have improved since but which ever way you look at it its not a bad piece of form. Her next run came over here in a 12F Group 3 where unfortunately for me she didn't do the business as I'd loaded a decent bet at a massive price. She travelled beautifully throughout the race and was boxed in all the way down the straight by the time she saw daylight the race was over.In fairness when she did see daylight she didn't exactly take off but it may have been a case that the trip was a little too far,her 7th place finish and the beaten distance doesn't really do her justice.A mark of 92 seems more than fair and Ed Greatrex claims a handy 5lb off that.She's drawn fairly low and there looks like a couple of likely front runners over there, she likes to sit fairly handy so hopefully they'll give her a nice lead into the race.She certainly is not a 50/1 poke in my opinion.
My biggest bet in the race is Halation and I'm not sure what to make of him after a disappointing performance at Doncaster a couple of weeks ago. Clutching at straws I could make some excuses for the performance.On all previous form he looked a likely sort and still holds a punchers chance I suppose but with a lack of pace over on his side I'm not as confident as I was when I laid my wedge out.I'd covered why I gave him a chance on the daily picks thread if anyone hasn't seen it and is interested.
It would be a magnificent feat if Bronze Angel could win a third Cambridgeshire. I'm not quite as dismissive of his chances of doing so as Euro in fact until he picked up his 4lb penalty I thought he had a reasonable chance of completing the hatrick as he'd won off 105 and was off 104 here, 108 now with the penalty
.Was he off 99 when he won it last year ? He certainly did it with a degree of comfort and I'm not sure another 5lb would have stopped him ,9lb might have done. I agree with Euro at his current price he can be left well alone but if he does the business on Saturday and pulls this off and your not on your feet applauding you're either dead inside or a complete vegetable.
I read a bit of Gigilo's thread and saw he'd put up Energia Davos at 40's.At the time I thought it a bit far fetched as the form lines and the improvement of horses mentioned seemed to be a bit far back for my liking. However his victory at Ascot looked as easy as you like and he put away some decent yardsticks and didn't look like he had a hard race which for me is a positive because he was coming back from a break and if he'd had a hard race I think he'd have been less likely to reproduce his form here.It looked to me like picking up the 4lb penalty wasn't the plan and like Spencer was thinking for a moment about not letting him win but I don't think he had a lot of choice in the end as the horse travelled so well.Cracking shout by Gig and for those of you on at 40's you have a cracking bet.
I had sort of made a case for proverbial dog Abseil on my other forum as he was a big price however todays shock news of the return of Ryan Moore and the fact this is his mount has seen his price half.Not for me at that price,WOOF!.
No point stating the obvious for the likes of GM Hopkins,Third Time lucky,Portage and the others as their chances really are fairly obvious and prices now match accordingly.
Made a bit of a mess of the race myself with the Ante post betting so I'm buggered before I start really but hope you guys have better luck with it.
