Caspian Cavier Gold Cup 16th December, Chelters

Marble said:
Think it relates to his front running style, Ivan.

'He's good with too much rope', alas, he's good if other jockeys allow him too much of a easy lead.

HTH
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Tried to take it up in March if I remember rightly but hit one early and then took a spill a bit further round...
 
There's a possibility he is better than the winning margins suggested when he beat Saphir and Le Prezien, (especially Saphir). If he'd beaten those two by a bigger margin, I'd argue he'd now be rated in the mid-high 150's.
 
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Marble said:
There's a possibility he is better than the winning margins suggested when he beat Saphir and Le Prezien.

If he'd beaten those two by a bigger margin, I'd argue he'd now be rated in the mid-high 150's.

I'm hoping that might be true anyway.
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Furthermore, he kicked half a dozen lengths clear of Saphir three from home at Chelters in January, and thus possibly kicked for home too soon, to only win a length. Maybe it was a race-winning move, or maybe he was value for more in terms of winning distance?

Le Prezien was a heavily backed 5/2 favourite, the day Foxtail beat him. They pulled 11 lengths clear of the third this day. I just feel it is excellent form.
 
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I'd agree that Foxtail isn't badly handicapped Marble but still feel he needs better ground to be seen at his best (over this trip anyway).

I don't know why you'd think he was better than the winning margin suggested against Le Prezien however I think it'll turn out in time that beating Le Prezien was a big performance in itself.
 
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I should have been more specific, Danny. I reckon he was value for more in terms of the beating he gave Saphir.

It's the actual horse he's stuck his neck out to beat (Le Prezien) that looks impressive on his CV.
 
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I'll sort of post some reasoning for Le prezien as I don't really like to put bets up without some sort of rational thought behind it. When you come to this race you can on most occasions find the winner from what is now the Bet Victor form but not always the winner of that race. There will be all sorts of opinions as who will come out on top this time but here is my take on it. However you view the front 4 or 5 from the race especially the front 3 they've obviously all been adjusted in the Handicap proper and different people have different views as to how much weight effects a horse over a certain trip but whatever that may be we should all agree that it brings the first 4 closer together. However when we are talking a couple of lengths here and there which can basically boil down to one bad jump then I think its a sensible approach to see who has room for improvement. Splash Of Ginge had Bottomless conditions in his favour but also had a a nice passage in the race and barring a mistake at the 8th which didn't cost him much ground or momentum was almost foot perfect at every other fence. Starchitect like wise always held a good position and bar a bit of an error at a vital time 2 out similarly did pretty much everything right. Le prezien on the other hand didn't jump at all well and some might reason that he may not again. However my view of it is that at the first fence I'm not sure whether he made an error or that he was indeed impeded slightly by Thievenal who fell and although it didn't cost him much ground he was certainly snatched up slightly, bumped into and slightly unbalanced. Did this set the tone ? It could certainly be enough to unsettle a horse and sure enough he then went on to clout the next losing him any chance of a good early position in the race. He followed that up with several scruffy jumps which didn't aid his cause. With serveral of the ones to finish in the frame they were all prominent and held good positions just before they turned for home Le prezien was a good 10 lengths off them but made "rapid" headway to get on the tails of the leaders. Although he battled on well up the straight it would have been impossible to sustain that sort of burst all the way up the hill. That sort of burst shows to me a sign of a bit of class and it's also the sort of burst that wins races if you are not too far away when you start the move. Its simply not enough to say Jumped badly and hope he jumps better this time without some sort of reason as to why. Personally I feel that being slightly impeded at the first got him off to a very bad start which can be all important in these sort of races and secondly a smaller field here should mean less hussle and bussle and a clearer view of fences. The pace may also not be as strong which again nothing pressure jumping like jumping at pace. My thought is that with better jumping you'll see him this time sitting on the shoulders of the leaders turning for home without expending as much energy and you should see that burst of speed deployed later and all things being even I think that will be enough to take this down. If you look at his report from the Bet Victor it reads as did my old school reports of "Could've done better" and as such I feel that's reason to believe he can reverse form. I still believe that over this trip he'll be seen to better effect on better ground as he has plenty of speed but he obviously handles softer conditions. If the ground had of had the word good in the description then I'd of had a bigger bet but I'll just stick with the decent poke I already hold as Softer ground especially Heavy ground would certainly aid the cause of plenty of the opposition.

As you like, but when Le prezien wins the Ryan Air then Foxtail Hill will look incredibly well handicapped :)
 
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Marble said:
I should have been more specific, Danny. I reckon he was value for more in terms of the beating he gave Saphir..
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I watched that race again and still feel the same. Jamie Balgary set a hell of a gallop and rode Foxtail from the front for all he was worth, saving precious little for the climb up the hill. As I said this could have been a race winning move...but in terms of how its translates to Saturday, I don't think they'll get as strung out, so (possibly) he'll need a more restrained ride from up front.
 
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Deaville Dancer being under-estimated at 33/1 - probably because he hasn't run in the grade, and the trainer is about as fashionable as a pair of loon-pants.

Young, progressive and unexposed at the trip. Can't see why he should be the price he is, in a wide-open race.
 
Good luck with Le Prezien Danny I can't put you off its just a personal preference for me with Foxtail, I want to see him run the legs off these. Hopefully his arse will appear smaller and smaller to the rest the further he goes. :)
 
You have to take into account though Marble that against Saphir he was a stone lower would he have won carrying an extra stone ...probably not. Obviously he can improve but if you take a view that he was beaten in the Bet victor by 25L if conditions are similar wouldn't it stand to reason that he'd struggle to do much better here ? I like the horse a lot I do as before the ground went south I considered dutching him with Le prezien for the BV myself I just can't have him if conditions do turn out to be similar.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Deaville Dancer being under-estimated at 33/1 - probably because he hasn't run in the grade, and the trainer is about as fashionable as a pair of loon-pants.

Young, progressive and unexposed at the trip. Can't see why he should be the price he is, in a wide-open race.
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He did get hit quite hard for his last win, which is part of the problem for him. But you're right in saying he's young, progressive and unexposed at the trip and that he's maybe a bit longer than he should be because of the trainer.

But he's also up against young progressive types who have form in better races. I give him an outside chance but wouldn't want to get involved at too much shorter. You might get 40s or 50s on the morning.
 
Points taken Danny but he wasn't at peak form last time, imho. His style of racing is to wear his heart on his sleeve and to do everything from the front. I feel these really genuine types often find it hard to maintain the exact same level of form week-in week-out in 60 grand handicap chases.

It doesn't mean their form is inferior, far from it..if he's back to his very best plus a bit more he'll be there at the business end, as on a going day as we've discussed, the form is right up there with the best of them.

Don't forget he's an each way price atm as well .
 
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O.k Marb good luck mate and I'll be the first to congratulate you are indeed on the winner as I think you deserve a bit of luck after the Splash of Ginge fiasco last time.
 
Aye I won't be having the mortgage on by any means, I've been on a poor run truth be told. This is too open to go in heavy on something like Foxtail Hill, although I'm clearly more than happy to argue his case. A tenner each way for fun is more than enough.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
He did get hit quite hard for his last win, which is part of the problem for him. But you're right in saying he's young, progressive and unexposed at the trip and that he's maybe a bit longer than he should be because of the trainer.

But he's also up against young progressive types who have form in better races. I give him an outside chance but wouldn't want to get involved at too much shorter. You might get 40s or 50s on the morning.
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I actually thought a 7lbs rise was getting nicely away with it, DO, because he absolutely danced-up at Doncaster without coming out of first gear.

My view (right or wrong) is that this is genuinely a field of handicappers, with none of them really have pretensions of going onto significantly better things, further down the line. Whilst some of them might improve a little bit, I don't see any of them improving massively, which I think makes the winning 'target rating' (for want of a better description), perhaps lower than would usually be the case for this race. On that basis, I wanted to be on something less exposed than most, and I felt DD worth chancing at the price (after the Henderson horse - who I'd originally picked for much the same reasons - wasn't declared).

It's true that DD has been winning in a much-lower grade, and he could easily get found-out on Saturday. He is also quite an edgy type, and might not take well to the customary preliminaries at Cheltenham, or what is likely to be a significantly bigger crowd than he's been used to. But at the odds on offer, and having absolutely no strong opinions on any of the rest of them, I figured to roll the dice.

I fear that I will be compelled to go in again Saturday morning, if I see anything bigger than 33/1 knocking around the village. Good after Bad. :lol:
 
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Grasshopper said:
I actually thought a 7lbs rise was getting nicely away with it, DO, because he absolutely danced-up at Doncaster without coming out of first gear.

My view (right or wrong) is that this is genuinely a field of handicappers, with none of them really have pretensions of going onto significantly better things, further down the line. Whilst some of them might improve a little bit, I don't see any of them improving massively, which I think makes the winning 'target rating' (for want of a better description), perhaps lower than would usually be the case for this race. On that basis, I wanted to be on something less exposed than most, and I felt DD worth chancing at the price (after the Henderson horse - who I'd originally picked for much the same reasons - wasn't declared).

It's true that DD has been winning in a much-lower grade, and he could easily get found-out on Saturday. He is also quite an edgy type, and might not take well to the customary preliminaries at Cheltenham, or what is likely to be a significantly bigger crowd than he's been used to. But at the odds on offer, and having absolutely no strong opinions on any of the rest of them, I figured to roll the dice.

I fear that I will be compelled to go in again Saturday morning, if I see anything bigger than 33/1 knocking around the village. Good after Bad. [emoji38]
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Just looking through his form, he hasn't run on soft too often but when he has he appears to have handled it pretty well.

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Think Paul Nicholls holds a strong hand

Posted elsewhere that I am a fan of Romain De Sanam.

Looks interesting each way at 12-1, and booking of Fehily will suit
 
RDS for me too. Ground will be better than for the BetVictor and he can resume progress


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Ground on Chase & Hurdles course reported by Claisse as Soft, G/S in places, this morning.

X-C course is G/S, Soft in places.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I took 16/1 Long House Hall this evening.

There has to be a chance he won't run but if he does turn up I suspect he might be the type punters could latch on to.
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I've had a bit of a saver on this Des so thanks for flagging it up. Looks like you might be able to get a bit bigger tomorrow if you fancied topping up just took 20's on the machine for the win. As I'm unsure whether he'll handle the ground I won't go e/w as I figure he's an all or nothing type of bet tomorrow, he either bolts up or pulls up I reckon.

Cheers des.
 
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Probably a ground thing as I suggested might be the case.

Unlucky Des. Hopefully he'll repay you at some point.
 
Been out since mid-morning so only just saw he's out.

If he went to 20 on the machine it would have worried me. Oh well, just need to keep him in mind for when it's not so soft.
 
I doubt if this is Clan De Obeaux type of race. I don't think he's much of a fighter and they don't come much faster and tougher than 2m5f round here.

I was thinking Starchitect but he has rune here 5 times without success and this is his highest mark to date.

Always said JP paid too much for La Prezien (290K) but he might just prove me wrong today.

Wasn't Barry's finest hour last time. Le Prezien lost ground 5 out and Barry either decided he had plenty time to make it back up again or he thought the others would stop.

Either way he was left with way too much to do and while he was perhaps the horse with the most toe it was all used up before he got to the last which he clouted anyway..

Ridden closer to the pace today I expect him to win and reduce the balance owed to JP in style.

La Prazien 7.5 taken
 
I think my idea of the first 4 now ends up something along the lines of

Le Prezien
Starchitect
Guitar Pete
Splash of Ginge

or at least that's what I'm hoping :)
 
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