Caspian Cavier Gold Cup Cheltenham Sat Dec 15

M

Marb

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Some cracking value in this race, albeit anti-post value, if you look hard enough. Forest Bihan is winking at me.

This fella beat the ultra consistent Cloudy Dream as a novice, before beating another top horse in Simply Ned at Kelso last season, where he was giving away a few pounds in the weights.
He fell last time out, but is young enough at seven years of age to bounce back. I think he is very interesting if stepped up in trip for Saturday, on a mark of 150, currently at 25/1.
 
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One that looks to me like it might just be ahead of the handicapper is Mr Medic. He and Flying Angel pulled well clear of the rest at Ascot last time out. Cobra de Mai also ran in that race and became detached early on so may be quite a bit better than the bare result so makes some appeal at 20/1.

No idea of running plans for these two though


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Yeah I have no idea of running plans for Forest Bihan either. See what happens during the week. Should be a declaration stage tomorrow.
 
I strongly fancied Rather Be for the Bet Victor, was still cruising when brought down. Retrieval mission time.
 
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How's the ground shaping up ahead of this race?

Rather Be will be on everyone's radar now. He won't know that, of course, but I just wonder if he'll be poor value by Saturday.
 
Looks promising for some decent ground then.

It also looks like being dryish week but with the possibility of heavy rain on Saturday afternoon.
 
No Forest Bihan in 5 day decs Marble. Hope you held on to your cash.



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It's not a handicap, Maurice. It's the Grade 1 Novice Chase, 'Sugar Paddy' chase. I really have a feeling, having looked at his form, and knowing he had a wind operation during the summer, that a huge run is coming, in the next 1-2 runs. To be frank, apart from Footpad I am not sure what he has to fear in that race in Ireland where it's likely there will only be a dozen or so runners, but I will look more closely later. I am licking my lips at the 25/1 on offer. Brian Ellison likes a raid at Leopardstown too. It's the 27th December, but my money will be where my mouth is, assuming the fella turns up. I might even have an anti post nibble as I wouldn't want to miss the 25/1.
 
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Marble said:
It's not a handicap, Maurice. It's the Grade 1 Novice Chase, 'Sugar Paddy' chase. I really have a feeling, having looked at his form, and knowing he had a wind operation during the summer, that a huge run is coming, in the next 1-2 runs. To be frank, apart from Footpad I am not sure what he has to fear in that race in Ireland where it's likely there will only be a dozen or so runners, but I will look more closely later. I am licking my lips at the 25/1 on offer. Brian Ellison likes a raid at Leopardstown too. It's the 27th December, but my money will be where my mouth is, assuming the fella turns up. I might even have an anti post nibble as I wouldn't want to miss the 25/1.
Click to expand...

I'll check it out at some point. I wouldn't have thought he qualified for novice races but he does a have a high enough rating to be dangerous against genuine novices.

Edit - I've had a quick look. It is a Grade 1, not a novices' race. He has little chance unless it cuts up badly. If you can get NRNB fair enough.
 
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Just to point out to the RDS fans that he's 25's with Hills still,if you can get on with them. You'd certainly want a decent surface for him on Saturday imo.
 
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Your probably right, DO. Upon second thoughts, I would rather see him in a lesser race. On balance it does appear a Grade 1 is a big ask.
 
My early figures:

CASPIAN CAVIAR GOLD CUP HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3) (Class 1) (4yo+) Winner £74,035 18 runners 2m4f127y Good To Soft ITV4

[TABLE="width: 796"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]No.
[/TD]
[TD]Form
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Stats
[/TD]
[TD]Days
[/TD]
[TD]Age
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[TD]Trainer
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
(178+)
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 16
[/TD]
[TD]6800-3
[/TD]
[TD] Foxtail Hill
[/TD]
[TD]CD bf
[/TD]
[TD] 49
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]9-13
[/TD]
[TD]Nigel Twiston-Davies
[/TD]
[TD]137
[/TD]
[TD]186
[/TD]
[TD]e d L
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 13
[/TD]
[TD]P82-5P
[/TD]
[TD] Splash Of Ginge
[/TD]
[TD]CD
[/TD]
[TD] 28
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-1
[/TD]
[TD]Nigel Twiston-Davies
[/TD]
[TD]139
[/TD]
[TD]182
[/TD]
[TD]? v
[/TD]
[TD]175
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 15
[/TD]
[TD]07-43U
[/TD]
[TD] Romain De Senam
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 28
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]9-13
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]137
[/TD]
[TD]182
[/TD]
[TD]? +? p? L
[/TD]
[TD]175
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD]1U12-B
[/TD]
[TD] Rather Be
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 28
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]182
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]170
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD]4438-4
[/TD]
[TD] Top Gamble
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-8
[/TD]
[TD]Kerry Lee
[/TD]
[TD]146
[/TD]
[TD]181
[/TD]
[TD]++ t
{190}
[/TD]
[TD]175
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 17
[/TD]
[TD]U68-23
[/TD]
[TD] Guitar Pete
[/TD]
[TD]CD
[/TD]
[TD] 28
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]9-13
[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Richards
[/TD]
[TD]137
[/TD]
[TD](180)
[/TD]
[TD]L
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1
[/TD]
[TD]350-12
[/TD]
[TD] Frodon
[/TD]
[TD]CD
[/TD]
[TD] 28
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]11-12
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[TD]179
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]177
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD]122/21
[/TD]
[TD] Baron Alco
[/TD]
[TD]C D
[/TD]
[TD] 28
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]11-0
[/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore
[/TD]
[TD]152
[/TD]
[TD]178
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12
[/TD]
[TD]12/4-0
[/TD]
[TD] Gardefort
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 21
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-2
[/TD]
[TD]Venetia Williams
[/TD]
[TD]140
[/TD]
[TD][177]
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7
[/TD]
[TD]6131-1
[/TD]
[TD] Mr Medic
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 22
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]10-5
[/TD]
[TD]Robert Walford
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]177
[/TD]
[TD]p P?
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6
[/TD]
[TD]2-4914
[/TD]
[TD] Cobra De Mai
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 22
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]10-5
[/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]176
[/TD]
[TD]? p
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD]23414-
[/TD]
[TD] Cepage
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 241
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]10-5
[/TD]
[TD]Venetia Williams
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]176
[/TD]
[TD]+ p?
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10
[/TD]
[TD]1F33-U
[/TD]
[TD] Full Glass
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD] 21
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]10-4
[/TD]
[TD]Alan King
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]175
[/TD]
[TD]+ +?
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD]7189-U
[/TD]
[TD] Casse Tete
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 22
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]10-0
[/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore
[/TD]
[TD]138
[/TD]
[TD]174
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]174
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5
[/TD]
[TD]4222-1
[/TD]
[TD] War Sound
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 35
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-8
[/TD]
[TD]Philip Hobbs
[/TD]
[TD]146
[/TD]
[TD]174
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]170
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 9
[/TD]
[TD]21F-22
[/TD]
[TD] Casablanca Mix
[/TD]
[TD]D bf
[/TD]
[TD] 37
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]10-5
[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]173
[/TD]
[TD]? +p
[/TD]
[TD]173
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11
[/TD]
[TD]421-1F
[/TD]
[TD] Catamaran Du Seuil
[/TD]
[TD]D bf
[/TD]
[TD] 7
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]10-4
[/TD]
[TD]Dr Richard Newland
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 18
[/TD]
[TD]46-111
[/TD]
[TD] Marienstar
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 24
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]9-9
[/TD]
[TD]Neil King
[/TD]
[TD]133
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]+p L
[/TD]
[TD]170
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
*L – long handicap
 
Rather Be must go close if Frodon runs and the weights stay as is (I assume they go up if he is pulled out)

Nicky Richards has Guitar Pete tuned up for what has always been the plan. Ran better than expected last time and should at least reverse places with Baron Alco at the revised weights

Top Gamble promises but very seldom delivers

War Sound has been along time coming but he looked the part at Aintree and looks a snip off 146

Frodon will have to be tougher than the Man of Steel to win after the Mackeson efforts..can't possibly back him I would advice a place lay on him

Of the Nigel Twiston-Davies pair Foxtail Hill looks best in on paper but in reality he probably is 4lbs too high

I can't work out Mr Medic. He raced off 134 and was handicapped to dead heat with the 142 rated Flying Angel

He proves the handicapper wrong by 3lbs beating Flying Angel by 3 lengths,

But he raises Mr Medic to 143 so if they met tomorrow Flying Angel would be 9lbs better off for 3 lengths.

Just goes to prove what you beat means SFA it what you win.

He's actually been put up from 124 to 143 a massive 19lbs in 2 races which may be a tad too much to ask.

MY 123

War Sound

Guitar Pete

Rather Be
 
War Sound is the selection then Tanlic. It's interesting, I had my eye on him as well.
 
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