Tanlic
Senior Jockey
That's it!!!!! I am changing my mind :lol:
Caspian Cavier Gold Cup Cheltenham Sat Dec 15
- Thread starter Marb
- Start date
David Ord · Columnist
12:06 · December 11, 2018 · 5 min read
David Ord has a horse-by-horse guide to Saturday's Caspian Caviar Gold Cup and tips at 25/1 and 16/1.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way Top Gamble at 25/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt each-way Full Glass at 16/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)
FRODON: Tough, genuine and a credit to connections, he produced a career-best to chase home Baron Alco under top weight in the BetVictor Gold Cup. He’s three pounds better off for a two lengths beating with that rival but his own mark continues to creep up and he’s vulnerable to potential improvers down below.
BARON ALCO: May have had the run of the race last time but hard to fault his effort, racing and jumping with enthusiasm and finding plenty from the last. He’s sure to give another good account despite a six-pound hike.
RATHER BE: Runner-up in the Close Brothers at the Festival and tanking along when brought down four out in the BetVictor. Clearly there was still a long way to go but he appeals as a progressive and well handicapped young chaser from the champion trainer’s yard. Clearly a fair few boxes ticked but already short enough in the market.
TOP GAMBLE: Looked like he needed the run on his Newbury reappearance on the first of the month and is one to consider from a mark three pounds lower than the one he finished third in the Grand Annual from. Stays this far and will handle whatever going the weather throws up. Has course form to his name too, so must be a player.
WAR SOUND: Impressive reappearance win at Aintree confirmed all of last season's promise, when he proved frustratingly hard to win with. Clearly respected but the handicapper didn’t miss him post-Liverpool, and ten pounds more in a warmer race might mean he’s up against it.
CASABLANCA MIX: Stablemate of Rather Be and talented performer in her own right but unproven in this big-field handicap scenario and while she didn’t stay the extended three miles at Market Rasen last time, she is five pounds higher than when beaten by Copain De Classe on her Kempton reappearance.
CEPAGE: Useful performer who picked up a valuable pot at Kempton in March and ran well here on his final start of last campaign. Fitness has to be taken on trust for his reappearance here though and a tendency to make mistakes is always a worry in this company.
COBRA DE MAI: Somehow finished fourth at Ascot last time having looked laboured and almost tailing off at one stage and won previous start at Stratford. In very good hands but will need a slicker round of jumping to stay in touch with these.
MR MEDIC: Off for 11 months before winning at Ascot last time where he characteristically travelled and fenced well. Needs to back that up and more from a nine pounds higher mark in this better race.
CATAMARAN DU SEUIL: Impressive at Wetherby on his return and warrants a crack at a race of this nature but fell at the sixth in the Grand Sefton at Aintree last week which is hardly the ideal preparation.
FULL GLASS: Plenty of promise in only two starts in Britain, third in a warm Ayr handicap in the spring and unseating four out when running well in a graduation chase at Haydock. Held in high regard and looks handicapped to go very close if he gets his ground – and heavy rain is forecast to hit before racing on Friday. If it does he shoots up the shortlist on the pick of his form in France.
GARDEFORT: Seemingly isn’t the easiest to keep right and while runner-up spot in the Grand Annual shows his talent, a fence-shuddering 11th on his Ascot reappearance highlights his fragility too. Needs to be at his very best and produce a clear round, neither of which are easy to guarantee.
SPLASH OF GINGE: Another one that’s hard to predict although far more bad days than good ones since winning last year’s BetVictor, including when pulling up in this season’s renewal.
CASSE TETE: Represents the Baron Alco team and feasibly handicapped, five pounds higher than when winning well at Warwick last season, but unseated at Ascot last time and his overall profile isn’t convincing.
FOXTAIL HILL: Well backed to take advantage of a plummeting handicap mark and win the race at the November meeting he landed in 2017 – but had to settle for third behind Modus. It was a fair return but not one he’s guaranteed to progress from.
GUITAR PETE: Last year's winner who got going too late when creditable third behind Baron Alco at the last meeting. A pound out of the handicap if Frodon runs but should be on the premises again.
ROMAIN DE SENAM: Unseated at the first in the BetVictor and while ten pounds better off with War Sound for their run at Aintree, he has 25 lengths to make up. Trained by Paul Nicholls which is the main thing he has going for him.
MARIENSTAR: Completed a hat-trick at Warwick last time and clearly thriving right now but is now 24 pounds higher than when the winning run started and in a much better race. Throw in the fact she's likely to be five pounds out of the handicap and it's time to look elsewhere.
VERDICT:
It's easy to make a case for Rather Be but he's already 10/3 and Baron Alco and Frodon must be considered after their BetVictor heroics. Last year's winner Guitar Pete will also be on the promises but TOP GAMBLE should take a significant step forward from his Newbury reappearance. If he does he's handicapped to do some serious damage and makes plenty of appeal at 25/1.
So does FULL GLASS, who remains completely unexposed in this country. His run at Ayr last season suggests he's on a mark he can win a good pot from, and if the forecast rain arrives Friday night and through race day, then his chance increases. A saver is suggested at 16s.
Hope David does not mind me putting this up here.
12:06 · December 11, 2018 · 5 min read
David Ord has a horse-by-horse guide to Saturday's Caspian Caviar Gold Cup and tips at 25/1 and 16/1.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way Top Gamble at 25/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt each-way Full Glass at 16/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)
FRODON: Tough, genuine and a credit to connections, he produced a career-best to chase home Baron Alco under top weight in the BetVictor Gold Cup. He’s three pounds better off for a two lengths beating with that rival but his own mark continues to creep up and he’s vulnerable to potential improvers down below.
BARON ALCO: May have had the run of the race last time but hard to fault his effort, racing and jumping with enthusiasm and finding plenty from the last. He’s sure to give another good account despite a six-pound hike.
RATHER BE: Runner-up in the Close Brothers at the Festival and tanking along when brought down four out in the BetVictor. Clearly there was still a long way to go but he appeals as a progressive and well handicapped young chaser from the champion trainer’s yard. Clearly a fair few boxes ticked but already short enough in the market.
TOP GAMBLE: Looked like he needed the run on his Newbury reappearance on the first of the month and is one to consider from a mark three pounds lower than the one he finished third in the Grand Annual from. Stays this far and will handle whatever going the weather throws up. Has course form to his name too, so must be a player.
WAR SOUND: Impressive reappearance win at Aintree confirmed all of last season's promise, when he proved frustratingly hard to win with. Clearly respected but the handicapper didn’t miss him post-Liverpool, and ten pounds more in a warmer race might mean he’s up against it.
CASABLANCA MIX: Stablemate of Rather Be and talented performer in her own right but unproven in this big-field handicap scenario and while she didn’t stay the extended three miles at Market Rasen last time, she is five pounds higher than when beaten by Copain De Classe on her Kempton reappearance.
CEPAGE: Useful performer who picked up a valuable pot at Kempton in March and ran well here on his final start of last campaign. Fitness has to be taken on trust for his reappearance here though and a tendency to make mistakes is always a worry in this company.
COBRA DE MAI: Somehow finished fourth at Ascot last time having looked laboured and almost tailing off at one stage and won previous start at Stratford. In very good hands but will need a slicker round of jumping to stay in touch with these.
MR MEDIC: Off for 11 months before winning at Ascot last time where he characteristically travelled and fenced well. Needs to back that up and more from a nine pounds higher mark in this better race.
CATAMARAN DU SEUIL: Impressive at Wetherby on his return and warrants a crack at a race of this nature but fell at the sixth in the Grand Sefton at Aintree last week which is hardly the ideal preparation.
FULL GLASS: Plenty of promise in only two starts in Britain, third in a warm Ayr handicap in the spring and unseating four out when running well in a graduation chase at Haydock. Held in high regard and looks handicapped to go very close if he gets his ground – and heavy rain is forecast to hit before racing on Friday. If it does he shoots up the shortlist on the pick of his form in France.
GARDEFORT: Seemingly isn’t the easiest to keep right and while runner-up spot in the Grand Annual shows his talent, a fence-shuddering 11th on his Ascot reappearance highlights his fragility too. Needs to be at his very best and produce a clear round, neither of which are easy to guarantee.
SPLASH OF GINGE: Another one that’s hard to predict although far more bad days than good ones since winning last year’s BetVictor, including when pulling up in this season’s renewal.
CASSE TETE: Represents the Baron Alco team and feasibly handicapped, five pounds higher than when winning well at Warwick last season, but unseated at Ascot last time and his overall profile isn’t convincing.
FOXTAIL HILL: Well backed to take advantage of a plummeting handicap mark and win the race at the November meeting he landed in 2017 – but had to settle for third behind Modus. It was a fair return but not one he’s guaranteed to progress from.
GUITAR PETE: Last year's winner who got going too late when creditable third behind Baron Alco at the last meeting. A pound out of the handicap if Frodon runs but should be on the premises again.
ROMAIN DE SENAM: Unseated at the first in the BetVictor and while ten pounds better off with War Sound for their run at Aintree, he has 25 lengths to make up. Trained by Paul Nicholls which is the main thing he has going for him.
MARIENSTAR: Completed a hat-trick at Warwick last time and clearly thriving right now but is now 24 pounds higher than when the winning run started and in a much better race. Throw in the fact she's likely to be five pounds out of the handicap and it's time to look elsewhere.
VERDICT:
It's easy to make a case for Rather Be but he's already 10/3 and Baron Alco and Frodon must be considered after their BetVictor heroics. Last year's winner Guitar Pete will also be on the promises but TOP GAMBLE should take a significant step forward from his Newbury reappearance. If he does he's handicapped to do some serious damage and makes plenty of appeal at 25/1.
So does FULL GLASS, who remains completely unexposed in this country. His run at Ayr last season suggests he's on a mark he can win a good pot from, and if the forecast rain arrives Friday night and through race day, then his chance increases. A saver is suggested at 16s.
Hope David does not mind me putting this up here.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I could fancy those two at those prices but not before Saturday morning. The bookies appear to be giving very little away, certainly with the front six or seven.
I reckon by Saturday morning it will be at least 4/1 the field and the outsiders will be on offer at 40s or 50s.
I reckon by Saturday morning it will be at least 4/1 the field and the outsiders will be on offer at 40s or 50s.
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This is from at the races website.
A fantastic handicap for punters as 26 of the last 32 winners could be found in the first four in the betting, though surprisingly given that stat, just one favourite has won since 1996.
Five of the last 13 winners posted a top-five finish in the BetVictor Gold Cup. Do not restrict yourself to a top-five finisher from that handicap a month earlier though as the last two Caspian Caviar Gold Cup winners, Frodon and Guitar Pete, could only finish tenth and ninth respectively before winning here. It should be stated though that last season’s BetVictor Gold Cup runner-up, Starchitect, was all set up to romp home here before breaking down fatally when galloping towards the final fence when in a clear lead.
A FANTASTIC HANDICAP FOR PUNTERS AS 26 OF THE LAST 32 WINNERS COULD BE FOUND IN THE FIRST FOUR IN THE BETTING, THOUGH SURPRISINGLY GIVEN THAT STAT, JUST ONE FAVOURITE HAS WON SINCE 1996.
Not unsurprisingly given that this valuable handicap attracts many of the principals that contested the BetVictor Gold Cup being run over the same track (albeit this time on the New Course) over a trip only half a furlong longer in distance, three horses (Pegwell Bay, Senor El Betrutti and Exotic Dancer) have completed the double in the same season. Five other horses have won both races but in different seasons since 1983. The 2004 winner, Monkerhostin, had finished third in the BetVictor Gold Cup the previous month therefore becoming the first Caspian Caviar Gold Cup winner to improve on a place position in the BetVictor during the same season since Addington Boy (also third) in 1996. Since then, Poquelin and Quantitativeeasing have also placed in the BetVictor (both finished second) before winning this handicap. Walkon and Colour Squadron finished placed in both races in 2012 and 2013 respectively and Buywise finished second and fourth in both races three years ago.
Younger horses have dominated of late, in fact there has been no winner aged over eight since 1993 and novices have won three of the last six runnings via Unioniste, Double Ross and Frodon, two of which were Paul Nicholls-trained, French-bred four-year-olds. There has been no winner aged ten or more since 1974 and only two have made the frame in over 20 years so they can confidently be overlooked.
Like so many of Cheltenham’s leading handicap chases, previous win-or-placed form at the course has been an important factor. Only the Irish-trained Go Roger Go and Niceonefrankie in a race that fell apart from half-way have bucked this trend since 1992 so make your first port of call a horse that has proven it can handle Cheltenham's undulations.
As with the BetVictor Gold Cup, the major southern yards have proven very hard to beat here winning 15 of the last 18 renewals with Paul Nicholls successful on four occasions and Nicky Henderson taking the prize three times, all with second-season chasers.
French-breds have a tremendous record in chase races up to and including 2m5f at the Cheltenham Festival (notably the Plate which is the equivalent race at that meeting) and it doesn’t end there as they have won nine of the last 16 runnings of this 2m5f handicap chase.
At a glance summary
POSITIVES
The front four in the betting
A top-five finish in the BetVictor Gold Cup
Horses officially rated 145+
Trained by a powerful Southern-based stable (notably Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls)
Novices
French-breds
NEGATIVES
Yet to post a win-or-placed effort at Cheltenham
Aged 9+
A fantastic handicap for punters as 26 of the last 32 winners could be found in the first four in the betting, though surprisingly given that stat, just one favourite has won since 1996.
Five of the last 13 winners posted a top-five finish in the BetVictor Gold Cup. Do not restrict yourself to a top-five finisher from that handicap a month earlier though as the last two Caspian Caviar Gold Cup winners, Frodon and Guitar Pete, could only finish tenth and ninth respectively before winning here. It should be stated though that last season’s BetVictor Gold Cup runner-up, Starchitect, was all set up to romp home here before breaking down fatally when galloping towards the final fence when in a clear lead.
A FANTASTIC HANDICAP FOR PUNTERS AS 26 OF THE LAST 32 WINNERS COULD BE FOUND IN THE FIRST FOUR IN THE BETTING, THOUGH SURPRISINGLY GIVEN THAT STAT, JUST ONE FAVOURITE HAS WON SINCE 1996.
Not unsurprisingly given that this valuable handicap attracts many of the principals that contested the BetVictor Gold Cup being run over the same track (albeit this time on the New Course) over a trip only half a furlong longer in distance, three horses (Pegwell Bay, Senor El Betrutti and Exotic Dancer) have completed the double in the same season. Five other horses have won both races but in different seasons since 1983. The 2004 winner, Monkerhostin, had finished third in the BetVictor Gold Cup the previous month therefore becoming the first Caspian Caviar Gold Cup winner to improve on a place position in the BetVictor during the same season since Addington Boy (also third) in 1996. Since then, Poquelin and Quantitativeeasing have also placed in the BetVictor (both finished second) before winning this handicap. Walkon and Colour Squadron finished placed in both races in 2012 and 2013 respectively and Buywise finished second and fourth in both races three years ago.
Younger horses have dominated of late, in fact there has been no winner aged over eight since 1993 and novices have won three of the last six runnings via Unioniste, Double Ross and Frodon, two of which were Paul Nicholls-trained, French-bred four-year-olds. There has been no winner aged ten or more since 1974 and only two have made the frame in over 20 years so they can confidently be overlooked.
Like so many of Cheltenham’s leading handicap chases, previous win-or-placed form at the course has been an important factor. Only the Irish-trained Go Roger Go and Niceonefrankie in a race that fell apart from half-way have bucked this trend since 1992 so make your first port of call a horse that has proven it can handle Cheltenham's undulations.
As with the BetVictor Gold Cup, the major southern yards have proven very hard to beat here winning 15 of the last 18 renewals with Paul Nicholls successful on four occasions and Nicky Henderson taking the prize three times, all with second-season chasers.
French-breds have a tremendous record in chase races up to and including 2m5f at the Cheltenham Festival (notably the Plate which is the equivalent race at that meeting) and it doesn’t end there as they have won nine of the last 16 runnings of this 2m5f handicap chase.
At a glance summary
POSITIVES
The front four in the betting
A top-five finish in the BetVictor Gold Cup
Horses officially rated 145+
Trained by a powerful Southern-based stable (notably Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls)
Novices
French-breds
NEGATIVES
Yet to post a win-or-placed effort at Cheltenham
Aged 9+
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Wasn't there a similar stat about Hennessy (Ladbrokes) winners? Until Sizing Tennessee hacked up? And Top Gamble could easily emulate him.
Stats like this are entirely misleading.
It's a bit like saying I would make a good Santa because of my age and shape.
What all these winners had in common - as did Sizing Tennessee - is that they were handicapped to win the race. As is Top Gamble.
Stats are no more than contrived, convenient coincidences.
A litany of cons, you might say.
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Agree 100% DO. Stats are there to be broken and every race imo has it's own unique circumstances. As it goes when you said your figures were bearing up better than your bets this week I actually thought you were going down the same path again as you'd failed to mention Top Gamble. Previously when doing 2 and a half miles he's been on heavy ground well his last few attempts anyhow. Better ground might just help him see the trip out and hes
been given a chance by the handicapper. 25/1 with laddies ( which usually boosts to 28's ) is probably worth a shot. Although he is doubley declared so just bear that in mind. I think you can ignore his last run as he's been awful first time up the last few seasons and in truth his effort wasn't bad I'm comparison to those.
been given a chance by the handicapper. 25/1 with laddies ( which usually boosts to 28's ) is probably worth a shot. Although he is doubley declared so just bear that in mind. I think you can ignore his last run as he's been awful first time up the last few seasons and in truth his effort wasn't bad I'm comparison to those.
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Could you please inform him that he's made the wrong plan...the plan should preferably have National in the title and if he could squeeze the word Scottish into the plan also that would be absolutely pukka !
Having given this some thought tonight I've come to the conclusion if the ground remains decent my first 4
1st Baron Alco
2nd Top Gamble
3rd Rather be
4th Romain de Senam
I'll try and add some reasoning if I get time.
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Those four would be among the group I'm considering but it is such a tight race I could imagine someone putting up another four and me thinking the same about them!
Baron Alco certainly cannot be ruled out. He was impressive the last time and might have improved again. Top Gamble is simply chucked in (I'll flesh out that carcass later). I meant to say, in my table of ratings, Rather Be is rated as notionally having dead-heated for second behind Baron Alco. If people think he'd have dead-heated with or beaten BA on the day they should adjust his rating upwards. He was certainly going as well as anything but you never really know with the hill. Romain De Senam will definitely carry sickness insurance. I've had it very well handicapped for a while and I'm sure it has one of these big Saturday handicaps with its name on it.
Baron Alco certainly cannot be ruled out. He was impressive the last time and might have improved again. Top Gamble is simply chucked in (I'll flesh out that carcass later). I meant to say, in my table of ratings, Rather Be is rated as notionally having dead-heated for second behind Baron Alco. If people think he'd have dead-heated with or beaten BA on the day they should adjust his rating upwards. He was certainly going as well as anything but you never really know with the hill. Romain De Senam will definitely carry sickness insurance. I've had it very well handicapped for a while and I'm sure it has one of these big Saturday handicaps with its name on it.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I'm totally ignoring Top Gamble Danny. I waited all last season for him to hit Top Form and despite drastic drop in the weights he still cant win one. I really think there's a mental problem there and he doesn't want it enough
Yeah that's fair enough mate I've had 2 small interests thus far one on him at 28's e/w and one on the nut of Romain de Senam at 25's if both lining up that'll be more than a fair price for them but not without their drawbacks. Top Gamble you may well have him spot on mate I just think he might be a little caught between trips and as said when he's run over the 2m5f at Cheltenham last season on Heavy ground against Ballyhill he's really just faded from the last. He's better handicapped here and hopefully this trip on better ground might just see him last home. Romain De Senam on the other hand is certainly handicapped to be on the premises however not just through the fall last time but his jumping isn't the best. I'd wonder if a bit of headgear might help I'd also be tempted if I was Nicholls to deploy a claimer or as he's a pound out of the handicap pull Frodon out and then deploy a claimer for RDS.
With your War sound the problem I'd have is he was a bit useless last year and he certainly didn't look all that good at Cheltenham albeit in a hot race. If we were to say that the 3rd and 4th from Aintree were being readied for other days Warriors Tale ( won the Sefton ) RDS was lined up for the Bet victor although that went tits up at the first then War Sound as impressive as he looked beat Kings Odessy 6L. A few things we'd know about that one. He's seemed obviously held in Cheltenham handicaps, a couple of well beaten thirds last year of of similar marks attest to that. He also hasn't ever really run much of a race first time up. Add to that next time out, when he should of stripped a bit fitter he was being very well beaten by Aso + 1 other when he fell at the last so he hasn't really franked the form. All that into consideration and a 10lb rise for smacking him doesn't seem to fair to me and to ask a 9yo to find another chunk of improvement from there seems a hard task, I could be wrong I suppose as he visually looked really good and perhaps better ground then when he was last at Cheltenham would help his cause as he certainly seems to have speed but overall he's a lot on his plate. I'd agree on your thoughts of Mr medic a 9lb whack for beating Flying angel should be enough.
Baron Alco on the other hand gets a 6lb rise for winning the Bet Victor. O.k my initial reaction probably the same as most, perhaps through the pocket as were we all on something we thought would have won if it hadn't of fell ? RDS at the first ? Rather be brought down, Happy Diva was going well, Kings socks still in with a shout when coming to grief ?. Firstly its a very big assumption that any of those travelling well off what wasn't a break neck pace would have caught Baron Alco. Having watched the race again Moore has kicked him very early off the bend and he genuinely shot clear. O.k Frodon has run him close and you sort of might think that Frodon is handicapped to the hilt but he's still young enough to think he could go on to Graded Level. Baron Alco didn't set the strongest of pace up front he was quite well restrained which normally of course a steadier pace would suit those off the front as it did to some extent but it can also condense beaten distances Frodon was close to him all the way through. Its also an assumption to think that if Baron Alco hadn't run faster fractions and set a stronger pace that he wouldn't have just won by further.
If you took just a look at his last 3 runs just touched off by Charbel who's rattled Politlogue nto despite not jumping well and then hacked up in the Peterborough. Frodon had won... is it the Monets Garden Chase now ? Before hand and if we went back before Baron's injury he was 2nd in a plate trying to give a lb to what is now a 169 rated Gold cup candidate and the bunch of horses in behind were no mugs when it comes to Cheltenham handicaps. All these things obviously need a realistic overview but overall he's been banging into some classy types and remembering this will be only his 9th chase start at the age of 7. His Paddy Power win was nowhere near his biggest figure as I have it so we know at least at one point he was capable of running a better race. In the context of other horses rises like War Sound and Mr Medic does 6lb for beating Frodon look harsh ? I'd have said not. I'd normally be all for taking on the Paddy power winner in this race but this time given his price I think he's worth a shot at doing the double. They may all travel well in behind again but they might just have a job getting past him.
Here's to the rise and rise of Baron Alco...perhaps :
With your War sound the problem I'd have is he was a bit useless last year and he certainly didn't look all that good at Cheltenham albeit in a hot race. If we were to say that the 3rd and 4th from Aintree were being readied for other days Warriors Tale ( won the Sefton ) RDS was lined up for the Bet victor although that went tits up at the first then War Sound as impressive as he looked beat Kings Odessy 6L. A few things we'd know about that one. He's seemed obviously held in Cheltenham handicaps, a couple of well beaten thirds last year of of similar marks attest to that. He also hasn't ever really run much of a race first time up. Add to that next time out, when he should of stripped a bit fitter he was being very well beaten by Aso + 1 other when he fell at the last so he hasn't really franked the form. All that into consideration and a 10lb rise for smacking him doesn't seem to fair to me and to ask a 9yo to find another chunk of improvement from there seems a hard task, I could be wrong I suppose as he visually looked really good and perhaps better ground then when he was last at Cheltenham would help his cause as he certainly seems to have speed but overall he's a lot on his plate. I'd agree on your thoughts of Mr medic a 9lb whack for beating Flying angel should be enough.
Baron Alco on the other hand gets a 6lb rise for winning the Bet Victor. O.k my initial reaction probably the same as most, perhaps through the pocket as were we all on something we thought would have won if it hadn't of fell ? RDS at the first ? Rather be brought down, Happy Diva was going well, Kings socks still in with a shout when coming to grief ?. Firstly its a very big assumption that any of those travelling well off what wasn't a break neck pace would have caught Baron Alco. Having watched the race again Moore has kicked him very early off the bend and he genuinely shot clear. O.k Frodon has run him close and you sort of might think that Frodon is handicapped to the hilt but he's still young enough to think he could go on to Graded Level. Baron Alco didn't set the strongest of pace up front he was quite well restrained which normally of course a steadier pace would suit those off the front as it did to some extent but it can also condense beaten distances Frodon was close to him all the way through. Its also an assumption to think that if Baron Alco hadn't run faster fractions and set a stronger pace that he wouldn't have just won by further.
If you took just a look at his last 3 runs just touched off by Charbel who's rattled Politlogue nto despite not jumping well and then hacked up in the Peterborough. Frodon had won... is it the Monets Garden Chase now ? Before hand and if we went back before Baron's injury he was 2nd in a plate trying to give a lb to what is now a 169 rated Gold cup candidate and the bunch of horses in behind were no mugs when it comes to Cheltenham handicaps. All these things obviously need a realistic overview but overall he's been banging into some classy types and remembering this will be only his 9th chase start at the age of 7. His Paddy Power win was nowhere near his biggest figure as I have it so we know at least at one point he was capable of running a better race. In the context of other horses rises like War Sound and Mr Medic does 6lb for beating Frodon look harsh ? I'd have said not. I'd normally be all for taking on the Paddy power winner in this race but this time given his price I think he's worth a shot at doing the double. They may all travel well in behind again but they might just have a job getting past him.
Here's to the rise and rise of Baron Alco...perhaps :
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S
SlimChance
Guest
There is no way anyone can read a post that long without killing themself.
Lol thats a fairly brief one for me Slim.
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S
SlimChance
Guest
I take it back. There is a post twice as long on another thread today and you are not the culprit!
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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Fifteen runners in the CCGC
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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IE, Top Gamble, Gardefort and Marienstar out.
Agreed happy with Bowen taking the mount I've topped up with some e/w vouchers some at 3 places some at 4places for what is now a fairly tusky bet on a dodgy jumper, wunderbar !
As for the Baron I'll wait for the day I'd think he might be a better price on the day and I'm a little worried with them leaving Foxtail hill in as he won't have it all his own way i front but hopefully it'll lead to it being a proper race which is what we want.
War Sound was catching my eye after Forest Bihan was scratched. However, after looking again, really liking the look of Cepage at 12/1. Venetia Williams also had Aso entered up, who is no mug, but it seems Cepage could be an even better horse and must be there to do the business on Saturday. He has form with some good horses, and the sheer presence of Rather Be and other strong fancies is creating a great price on Cepage at present. In the words of Robbie Williams, he's the one.
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Gary Nutting on Atr made a fine case for Cepage. Admittedly I overlooked his chances initially as I'd just looked at the bare result of his Cheltenham outing in the spring although having watched the race he'd certainly as Nutting pointed out got a bit flustered in the Prelims and would certainly have benefited from a faster pace which he should get on Saturday now foxtail hill has stood it's ground. Certainly one of the more interesting ones marble.
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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If of any interest William Hill going seven places in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I was cheering him home from three out. I expected him to run his heart out and put up a career best but still thought something else would thwart him but that was brilliant to watch.
Cepage was a proper job horse who was miles clear of the third. Guitar Pete was nowhere near as far back as the last time and I thought at halfway maybe he was going to be the one but the first two were brilliant.
Rather Be was clearly nowhere near form and maybe last time took more out of Baron Alco than it seemed at the time. I half-expected these two and Frodon to be very close to each other at the line.
Off 164, Frodon will now go up to 170+ and that makes him better than a handicapper. I can't help thinking this has also been a brilliant training performance from Nicholls. It's hard to get away from the conclusion that this has been the plan all along and that he's been hiding the horse in plain sight.
Cepage was a proper job horse who was miles clear of the third. Guitar Pete was nowhere near as far back as the last time and I thought at halfway maybe he was going to be the one but the first two were brilliant.
Rather Be was clearly nowhere near form and maybe last time took more out of Baron Alco than it seemed at the time. I half-expected these two and Frodon to be very close to each other at the line.
Off 164, Frodon will now go up to 170+ and that makes him better than a handicapper. I can't help thinking this has also been a brilliant training performance from Nicholls. It's hard to get away from the conclusion that this has been the plan all along and that he's been hiding the horse in plain sight.
