Champion Stakes

Gamla Stan

Gamla Stan

At the Start
Joined
Aug 19, 2005
Messages
4,337
Bet £3.65 have priced it up as follows:

Twice Over 7/2
Vision D'Etat 4/1
Snow Fairy 6/1
Await The Dawn 7/1
Cape Blanco 71
Fuisse 10/1
Wigmore Hall 10/1
St Nicholas Abbey 12/1
Glass Harmonium 16/1
Gitano Hernando 16/1
Beethoven 20/1
Tazeez 20/1
25/1 Bar

Anything stand out? Gitano and Tazeez look interesting at nice prices, particularly with the formers outstanding record at the track.
 
Had a tough old time this year, I'm one of his biggest fans but seems like Fame last year to me.
 
Agree with your choices - I've changed my mind about Tazeez. May open an account with them to back him as I think a lot of the above will be non runners.

It's very difficult for any horse to come here after a busy season and run well - Twice Over and Cape Blanco two examples of this.

Also think Gitano Hernando has a real chance. May have won in Dubai of Fallon hadn't found him all the trouble in the world. Why is he 16s and Wigmore Hall 10s? Should be the other way around and then some. Doesn't make sense.

Both are fresh horses which is the key, but both had preps around the right time.
 
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EC1 said:
old oxo hoss...Cape Blanco...end of analysis

back to a trip he stays :)
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Horses like him contest this year in year out and don't win - Fame, Hurricane Run, Oratorio, Notnowcato all ran way below form as favourite in recent years as they had been on the go too long/had too many hard races/too recent a hard race.
 
No harm. He could have a very good year at 4 over 10f.
 
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Originally Posted by EC1
old oxo hoss...Cape Blanco...end of analysis

back to a trip he stays :)
Horses like him contest this year in year out and don't win - Fame, Hurricane Run, Oratorio, Notnowcato all ran way below form as favourite in recent years as they had been on the go too long/had too many hard races/too recent a hard race.

no of runs this season

5 Twice Over
2 Vision D'Etat 4/1
5 Snow Fairy 6/1
2 Await The Dawn 7/1
6 Cape Blanco 71
6 Fuisse 10/1
8 Wigmore Hall 10/1
1 St Nicholas Abbey 12/1
3 Glass Harmonium 16/1
3 Gitano Hernando 16/1
6 Beethoven 20/1
6 Tazeez 20/1
25/1 Bar


Last few runnings of Champion Stakes - no of runs that year

6 Twice Over
5 New Approach
5 Literato
5 Pride
6 David Junior
4 Haafhd
2 Rakti
6 Storming Home
6 Nayef

I'm not sure where you getting your stats from Hamm..but they not really that accurate are they?
 
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I actually got the animals mixed up there, same initials. But they are both backable. This race reminds me of the Sun Chariot, a contest where five of the first six in the market I wouldn't back with stolen money.
 
6 Twice Over
5 New Approach
5 Literato
5 Pride
6 David Junior
4 Haafhd
2 Rakti
6 Storming Home
6 Nayef
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Cape Blanco took in the Dante, French Derby, Irish Derby, King George, Irish Champion and the Arc. According to yourself three of those runs were over a trip that would have stretched and hurt him...particularly the Arc where he was trapped wide on an easy surface and got a thump in the last furlong. I do not expect him to line up but in any case he has had a pretty tough campaign.

The likes of Twice Over (he was specifically aimed at this race) and Pride were four year olds.
 
EC1 said:
Last few runnings of Champion Stakes - no of runs that year

6 Twice Over
5 New Approach
5 Literato
5 Pride
6 David Junior
4 Haafhd
2 Rakti
6 Storming Home
6 Nayef

I'm not sure where you getting your stats from Hamm..but they not really that accurate are they?
Click to expand...

Twice Over's year was weak and many underperformed (Fame flopped).

New Approach was so far clear of his opposition that it was embarrassing (Russian Cross was 4th and he's barely listed class).

Literato's year was woeful (Notnowcato flopped)

Pride beat Rob Roy FFS (Hurricane Run underperformed and Sir Percy was the worst Derby winner in years)

David Junior was a big improver as his subsequent two Group Ones showed (Oratorio got turned over)

Stats like that can be misleading as you know despite how much as you cling to them. It's true to suggest that plenty of big named horses like Cape Blanco who have contested the very best races in each year have got turned over in this (as listed above)

The race often has a couple of big names but the form is usually quite unpredictable due to it coming at the end of a hard season and it's something of an after thought for some horses.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Twice Over's year was weak and many underperformed (Fame flopped).

New Approach was so far clear of his opposition that it was embarrassing (Russian Cross was 4th and he's barely listed class).

Literato's year was woeful (Notnowcato flopped)

Pride beat Rob Roy FFS (Hurricane Run underperformed and Sir Percy was the worst Derby winner in years)

David Junior was a big improver as his subsequent two Group Ones showed (Oratorio got turned over)

Stats like that can be misleading as you know despite how much as you cling to them. It's true to suggest that plenty of big named horses like Cape Blanco who have contested the very best races in each year have got turned over in this (as listed above)

The race often has a couple of big names but the form is usually quite unpredictable due to it coming at the end of a hard season and it's something of an after thought for some horses.
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generalised statements based on a few random examples isn't top analysis is it?

in that list of Hamm's you agree with..is old F&G..a 2 miler running at 10f..I wonder why he didn't win?

Its like quoting RP standard times from Longchamp and calling the ground faster than it was..its lazy analysis

i was just joining in with it..funny how my generalised bollox is wrong but Hamm's is correct..thats never happened before :D
 
Await The Dawn is a bounce animal waiting to happen. And beating Nanton is hardly much of an indicator of any sort of class.
 
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EC1 said:
i'd say my stats are as big a load of generalised bollox as the statement Hamm made..generalised statements based on a few random examples isn't top analysis is it?

in that list of Hamm's you agree with..is old F&G..a 2 miler running at 10f..I wonder why he didn't win?

Its like quoting RP standard times from Longchamp and calling the ground faster than it was..its lazy analysis

i was just joining in with it..funny how my generalised bollox is wrong but Hamm's is correct..thats never happened before :D
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Hamm said "horses like him" when referring to Cape Blanco. I think very few if any of those you have put up are "like" Cape Blanco in terms of the type of campaign they had.
 
EC1 said:
Its like quoting RP standard times from Longchamp and calling the ground faster than it was..its lazy analysis
Click to expand...

I spend hours every year compiling my own standard times, I'd hardly call that lazy.

Have you calculated the variance for Longchamp on Sunday?

Stats are misleading, they are very useful at times but can be misleading, as you well know.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I spend hours every year compiling my own standard times, I'd hardly call that lazy.

Have you calculated the variance for Longchamp on Sunday?

Stats are misleading, they are very useful at times but can be misleading, as you well know.
Click to expand...

i think i conclusively proved to you that the ground was soft on Sunday..i ain't doing it twice..you didn't have the grace to admit you were wrong and now want to talk about variances..yours were wrong ..i know that much

Galileo - you thing F&g and CB are alike then?

its hard to tell Hamm used to be a mod on here:D

he really doesn't need you guys nursemaiding him you know..he can stick up for himself:)
 
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