Originally Posted by
EC1 
old oxo hoss...Cape Blanco...end of analysis
back to a trip he stays 
Horses like him contest this year in year out and don't win - Fame, Hurricane Run, Oratorio, Notnowcato all ran way below form as favourite in recent years as they had been on the go too long/had too many hard races/too recent a hard race.
no of runs this season
5 Twice Over
2 Vision D'Etat 4/1
5 Snow Fairy 6/1
2 Await The Dawn 7/1
6 Cape Blanco 71
6 Fuisse 10/1
8 Wigmore Hall 10/1
1 St Nicholas Abbey 12/1
3 Glass Harmonium 16/1
3 Gitano Hernando 16/1
6 Beethoven 20/1
6 Tazeez 20/1
25/1 Bar
Last few runnings of Champion Stakes - no of runs that year
6 Twice Over
5 New Approach
5 Literato
5 Pride
6 David Junior
4 Haafhd
2 Rakti
6 Storming Home
6 Nayef
I'm not sure where you getting your stats from Hamm..but they not really that accurate are they?
EC,
My point was far from lazy and even further from inaccurate, if you had bothered to actually read what I wrote, not what you think I wrote.
I mentioned a list of horses who had been favourite or near that position, or in other words fancied horses for the Champions Stakes. I then said there were 3 reasons why these horses failed to fire. You have taken that in a black and white fashion whereas for example, Twice Over running in a conditions race and listed race is not the same 2 runs as say Fame and Glory running in the Irish Champion Stakes and Arc.
So, if you take top level runs prior to the Champion Stakes for the disappointing favourites I referred to:
Fame and Glory - had contested 4 Group 1s, plus 2 other Group races (and had a late season finish the season before), and his Group 1 races included 2 in 4 weeks just 2 weeks before the CS.
Notnowcato - Had contested 4 Group 1s, 5 races in all prior to the CS.
Hurricane Run - Had contested 4 Group 1s, 5 races in all prior to the CS and was generally past his best come the CS (form had been going down all year).
Oratorio - Had contested 6 Group 1s prior to the CS.
Now, if you look at the last 7 winners of this race (not going back further as wasn't following racing intensely then and hence hadn't that in mind when making my point):
Twice Over - had contested 3 Group 1s prior to the CS.
New Approach - had contested 5 Group 1s but had 3/4 of a stone in hand on his rivals. Unbelieveably hardy horse - something we knew at the time from his 2 year old days and ability to win Derby after running in 2 Guineas. However, an exception to my general point.
Literato - had contested 1 Group 1 prior to the CS.
Pride - had contested 3 Group 1s prior to the CS.
David Junior - had contested 1 Group 1 prior to the CS.
Haafhd - had contested 2 Group 1s prior to the CS.
Rakti - had contested 1 Group 1 prior to the CS.
