Champions Day - soft ground again

7/1 Soft Falling Rain is too big for a horse that has form not far off the best level achieved by Dawn Approach and comes here at the top of his game.

He may not go on the surface, but we don't know for sure he won't, and it's overfactored into his current odds.
 
Olympic glory for me. Have to excuse last run but doing so puts him right there with what I believe is the best form. Ground is good for him and he's the type to relish it.

I have really enjoyed dawn approach this season but he's simply not going the right way.
 
Long Distance Cup

Not a great lot between these on ratings really and of the shorter price ones you can roll a dice to get the winner. I'll go for an outsider in Pale Mimosa. Has won very easily on heavy ground and has had a light campaign compared to most..possibly laid out for this?

Pale Mimosa

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Sprint

Maarek is the most impressive sprinter to watch imo..may well win again here but am drawn to Jack Dexter who's record on soft/hvy reads 111111.

Jack Dexter

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Fillie & Mares

Very hard to look beyond Dalkala..best horse in the race..acts on the ground..and form in October reads 1151

Dalkala

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QE2

The problem with Soft Rain Falling is that for a horse to be so good on one surface it is a leap of faith to think he will be of the same ability on the opposite ground. Not impossible obviously but i err on the side of not being as good..so looks priced about right. Maxios will relish conditions..isn't much below SRF on ratings and is currently 9/2...which to me is better value as will definitely be in there pitching..whereas if SRF doesn't like the ground will be out with the washing. I don't fancy DA on ground like this at the end of what has been a long road for him..will fall short imo.

Maxios

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Champion Stakes

I don't think CDA's form is what it was..last win isn't good enough to win this.

Farhh will be stretched over this trip on the ground.

Ruler Of the World needs further than 12f imo..so this is no good

lots of ifs and buts and no value at the front of this market

a line through Pilote gives Triple Threat a shout against CDA..at the prices i'll go with this one...possible improvement still

Triple Threat
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It's a p1sh meeting, p1sh card, p1sh going. But it's on TV so...

1.45 It should go to one of Estimate, Harris Tweed or Times Up. There's no point in backing Estimate at the price. She might win but big deal if she does. I've backed the other two at what strike me as value prices.

2.20 - Has there ever been a p1sher collection of sprinters for a big race? Viztoria might be marginally less p1sh than the others and is a decent price.

2.55 - Dalkala will probably p1sh in.

3.30 - One of the p1shest G1s I can remember. Nick Moron puts up a fascinating angle for backing Maxios and Paul Kealy likes it too so while I'd love to see Dawn Approach win the money's on Maxios.

4.05 - CDA at his best should win but the price is no use to me so I've backed Ruler Of The World as he didn't really have a race in the Arc and is, let's face it, the Derby winner in against genuine second-raters apart from the fav and maybe Farhh.


The Cheltenham card is much more interesting.
 
Desert Orchid said:
3.30 - One of the p1shest G1s I can remember. Nick Moron puts up a fascinating angle for backing Maxios and Paul Kealy likes it too so while I'd love to see Dawn Approach win the money's on Maxios.
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It's a shallow angle imo. The horse has run poorly here in the past, nicked the Moulin due to the braindead jocks on his rivals and 9/2 is awful.
 
a poor Derby winner that needs 1m4+ ..won't beat these imo

Maxios is the 3rd highest rated horse in the field behind DA and OG..so how you can expect greater than 9/2 i wouldn't know

OG won't improve for the blinkers looking at the sire stats..probably run worse actually...so Maxios will only have DA to beat..he relishes the ground..DA unproven on it ..9/2 is a gift
 
Can't believe Maareks price. The field he beat in the Abbaye was much better than this and this trip probably suits better. Grounds right, the only negative is his recent run but I'm never as bothered about that with sprinters. Viztoria looks the biggest danger and I have a feeling Mass Rally could run well at a price.
 
Sirius Prospect comes right this time of year, doing so both in September/October 2011 & 2012. If there is an upset he'll cause it.
 
EC1 said:
what was Nick Mordin's angle DO?
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It's to do with the taxing nature of the track.

...since 2003 there have been four runners in the QEII who previously reached the first two in a Group 1 or 2 race over 1m4f outside Britain or Ireland - Falbrav, Rakti, Starcraft and Ramonti.

You might think that a smart run over 1m4f has little relevance in a race over a mile. But the difference between foreign races and British ones is that all four of the horses I've just named won the QEII. The combination of stamina and finishing speed needed to reach the first two in a big 1m4f race abroad seems to be exactly what's required to win the QEII.
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As Euro says, it's a bit thin but it's also a bit out of the box, which I like.
 
the ground looks bad on the clock..first race 16 seconds slow..they didn't go even pace but thats still slow..Murtagh says its the worse ground he has ridden on:blink:
 
sprint was 3.39 slower than RP standard..should have been 1 second fast for good ground..so its about 87lb per mile slow..very soft

similar to last year
 
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QEII not an easy race to work out, could be another strange result. Small interest on Kingsbarns e/w.
 
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