Champions Day

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
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Looks like a good weather forecast.

Thoughts at this stage is I hope Minding runs in the QEII

Almanzor looks unopposable

The Sprint looks ripe for a decent result if the ground is ok. I like The Tin Man but have not backed him yet.
 
O'Brien stirred things up a bit at the weekend by suggesting Found might run in the Fillies and Mares. It would be curtains for my ante-post bet on Zhukova but the betting says it's not going to happen with Found available at 12/1 with several firms.

Minding looks likely to go for the mile race. I just wonder whether that trip will suit at this stage of her career and whether she's in quite the same form as in the spring and this time last year. Mind you, anyone with 10/1 ante-post is sitting on a decent bet.
 
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They have South of Heaven for the 12f race, no chance Found runs in that.

This might be one race too many for Minding but the trainer continues to get horses to run all season long. The oppo is bang average.

The sprint is mouth watering from a betting point of view. Limato has entered the picture now that the weather forecast is good. After his July Cup win Candy said he needs time between his races, and then he rocked up in the Nunthorpe five week later. Ran well, not a 5f animal. Here though he has a 13 day gap between races. Must oppose. QR has had a hard season, might not like Ascot, might not like the ground. Another to rule out together with Meccas Angel and ******* Librisa Breeze (the trainer is an idiot running him here.) The Tin Man didn't run well at the Royal Meeting but we'll have different ground here and he's imo a very solid each way poke.
 
Not sure I'd call Galileo Gold bang average Euro, Ribchester could find the ground a tad lively but I'm just not convinced Minding is good enough against the boys especially when you consider she was beaten over this trip against the inferior Jet Setting. I'm surprised Mutakayeff has been pulled, this would have been a good opportunity for him.
 
Jet Setting's name has turned up in the wrong race for Champions Day, but it's just an admin error. She will be allowed into the QEII.
 
Euronymous said:
The sprint is mouth watering from a betting point of view. Limato has entered the picture now that the weather forecast is good. After his July Cup win Candy said he needs time between his races, and then he rocked up in the Nunthorpe five week later. Ran well, not a 5f animal. Here though he has a 13 day gap between races. Must oppose. QR has had a hard season, might not like Ascot, might not like the ground. Another to rule out together with Meccas Angel and ******* Librisa Breeze (the trainer is an idiot running him here.) The Tin Man didn't run well at the Royal Meeting but we'll have different ground here and he's imo a very solid each way poke.
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Quite happy with the 12's I got Shalaa, but HC's not in the habit of running Limato unprepared and - if he runs - he wins, imo.
Journey was a close 2nd in the F & M last year, and I make her warm-up at Newmarket an improvement (all things considered) so Hill's 8/1 appeals greatly.
 
Until we know which races sir aiden of ballydoyle Is sending his horses then better to hang fire. For value just now better to look for horses with form on good to firm. Galileo gold springs to mind. Order of st George could be vulnerable on this going and seventh heaven looks the bet of the meeting if the going stays as it is. It's amazing the number of second favourites win at these meetings so horses like simple verse found etc could be the bets. Looking forward to I think the best meeting for depth and quality. Is it to be a sir aiiden benefit or have some trainers treated the meeting as an afterthought
Cannae wait for it to start. Tea and biscuits at the ready and only moving for top ups or toilet breaks. Bring it on.
 
Edinahib said:
For value just now better to look for horses with form on good to firm. Galileo gold springs to mind. Order of st George could be vulnerable on this going and seventh heaven looks the bet of the meeting if the going stays as it is.
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The ground on the course that is likely to be used is good, good to soft in places. The good to soft places are mainly on the round course.
 
Makes sense to keep alice springs for the breeders cup. Don't see the point of getting the inner course ready for use then not using it as it's too firm. Very annoying for horses who like good going or good to firm as they will struggle to win on Saturday. Oosg looks a shoe in now and minding looks to have the right going for it. The tin man in the sprint looks to be a big player as well.Fillies and mares looks wide open with Good /good to soft going.
 
Euronymous said:
That was on soft ground. If she runs to her ICS form she wins this end of story.
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I'm far from convinced that her form at Leopardstown is as good as the form she was in at Newmarket last backend and in the spring. She really sparkled then.

And she's had more runs this year than Quiet Reflection who you're opposing in her race on "long, hard season" grounds (among others).

I'm not saying she can't win but I couldn't have her at current odds.
 
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Lightning Spear is of interest for me in the QE2. Not beaten too far behind The Gurkha or Tepin and pulled hard behind Ribchester (btn 3l). Can't see the prices but would think anything over 10's would be fair value.
 
gus said:
I'm far from convinced that her form at Leopardstown is as good as the form she was in at Newmarket last backend and in the spring. She really sparkled then.

And she's had more runs this year than Quiet Reflection who you're opposing in her race on "long, hard season" grounds (among others).

I'm not saying she can't win but I couldn't have her at current odds.
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Quiet Reflection isn't trained by a genius though.

Sent from my MediaPad M1 8.0 using Tapatalk
 
I'm far from convinced that her form at Leopardstown is as good as the form she was in at Newmarket last backend and in the spring. She really sparkled then.
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We're talking here about Minding, right? In the Irish Champion Stakes, where the two horses to finish in front of her were Almanzor, the top rated horse in Europe and Found, convincing winner of the Arc?

I think it was a pretty good run myself, she finished 1.75L in front of New Bay after finally getting the chance to kick and move past him less than 2f out.
 
Grey said:
We're talking here about Minding, right? In the Irish Champion Stakes, where the two horses to finish in front of her were Almanzor, the top rated horse in Europe and Found, convincing winner of the Arc?

I think it was a pretty good run myself, she finished 1.75L in front of New Bay after finally getting the chance to kick and move past him less than 2f out.
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Yes, Minding.

It was clearly a "pretty good run" but, as a piece of form, I don't think it's on a par with her Newmarket performances. I've no idea if Timeform or RPR ratings support that view but that's my opinion.

Euro has (I think) 10/1 and that's an excellent bet but I think she's far too short now on the grounds of trip, current form and strength of opposition.
 
the fact limato doesn't run is sad for us punters..but makes Dean Ivorys decision look wise rather than idiotic Euro..particularly when he knows what it takes to take some place money from the sprint
 
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Mindings run at leopardstown was as good as any she has run and having met traffic problems could well have been in the shake up at the end with a clear run. With the ground in her favour she must have a very good chance against the colts who all have something to prove in my opinion. Official ratings have her 2lb ahead of the field and if she is as effective over a mile as she was at Newmarket will take all the beating.
 
I am surprised Minding is going back down in trip . I though she looked like she would have done better at 1m 4f in the Irish Champion .

I struggle to see why Almanzor for all his talent is so short - Found is 2 lb better off and improved to win the Arc and tends to be at her best in the late autumn . I think they ought to be joint favourites .
 
Edinahib said:
Mindings run at leopardstown was as good as any she has run and having met traffic problems could well have been in the shake up at the end with a clear run. With the ground in her favour she must have a very good chance against the colts who all have something to prove in my opinion. Official ratings have her 2lb ahead of the field and if she is as effective over a mile as she was at Newmarket will take all the beating.
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She didn't lose an inch of ground to "traffic problems" and, although it's ultimately just one man's opinion, the Post's handicapper certainly disagrees with you about the merit of the performance at Leopardstown.

On RPRs it was her joint worst performance of the season. On his figures, she has five career performances superior and by some way at that. The full sequence since last autumn is 119 (Fillies' Mile), 121 (1000G), 119 (Irish 1000), 118 (Oaks), 122 (Pretty Polly), 116 (Nassau), 116 (Irish Champion).

Don't know what ratings Timeform have for those runs - put them up, please, DJ, if you see this - but it's food for thought for anyone thinking of taking 2/1.

I'm a big admirer of Minding but, for me, her chance on Saturday is slightly inferior to those of the specialist milers, Ribchester and Galileo Gold, and broadly similar to that of Awtaad.
 
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Awtaad?? He was less than 2 lengths in front of Custom Cut last time, Minding finished in front of multiple G1 winners.

Timeform have Almanzor running to 133 at Leopardstown, it was hands down the best race of the season.

I wouldn't back Minding at 2/1 but I have topped up my 10/1 with some 11/4.
 
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