Charlie Hall Chase

Some truly daft stats here. Ie. profit over what period? I reckon far mor than 1% do so over a year

The truth is that with tighter margins, no tax, and unprecedented market access, making a profit is easier than ever. The flip side is that with easy and widely available information, instantly responsive markets and tighter security, making a proper regular profit at a decent margin must be more difficult than ever
 
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Wilsonl/Clivex
I have a small account kept mainly as a diary of horses backed through the year.
Have just checked the past 12 months, and the ROI is fractionally above 10% (i.e. less than 11%).
I've never had a bank any larger than the small profit I've made from the account over that period, though I've turned my standard stake over about 10 times a week.
This notion that you need huge capital to support high turnover is just plain wrong.
 
I believe some time ago that Betfair said that 95% of people using it lost money

so..never mind making a living or just making a profit..only 5% of people make money gambling on there..i believe it was just horse racing.

I would say that with the ability to trade your stake on there ..would make it easier to keep hold of your money and win..whereas betting with an ordinary bookie would mean even less than 5% make any money the traditional way with just backing with a bookie
 
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I believe some time ago that Betfair said that 95% of people using it lost money
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The problem with that figure is it doesn't consider the arbers who lay everything off and cream the the differential in the overnight price. Punter shows a profit but loses on the exchange.

I'm clueless what volume is involved, but the way these over night prices still vanish, there must still be a few at it.

My view is percentage ratio is down to fumbling finger feck up. I still have cold sweats remembering pressing the lay button by mistake.
 
wilsonl said:
Good post Grey.

There is a thread on TRF from somebody who effectively posts a journal of their attempt to 'turn pro' and while they make a profit, it would not suffice as a sole income unless the punter had other means of living.

If people think that a 10% ROI over each and every year would be a good return then to generate the equivalent of an 100k per year gross salary (given that gambling profit is tax free equating to c. 70k net) they would need to theoretically start with 700k - although that of course is a highly simplified analysis.

and if I had 700k that I could use as a starting bank then I wouldn't care about a measly 10% ROI ;)

I would concur that there are many people who make a regular profit on here (I am not one of them !) but not many who can generate enough profit to provide a living for them and a family.


back to the original topic and while Long Run will probably need this, his form is head and shoulders above anything else (at least 11lb on OR) and surely odds against is a good bet considering that the 3rd horse in the market Harry Topper won't run unless there is a downpour leaving Cape Tribulation , Benefficient and Unioniste as the only other horses quoted at less than 20/1.

and admirable as they are should they really be able to beat Long Run over 3m1f on GS ?. Especially when they have all had an equally long break.
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What's the obsession in the betting world with people being pro? What's wrong with punting and working to give yourself a lifestyle that the common man can only dream of. A valid point that is lost on many is that working allows you to network and that has value.

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SlimChance said:
What's the obsession in the betting world with people being pro? What's wrong with punting and working to give yourself a lifestyle that the common man can only dream of. A valid point that is lost on many is that working allows you to network and that has value.

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Agree with this. Removes stress from it.

Benefficient or Harry Topper for me with the former being the bet on better ground whilst Baieys charge would carry my dosh if it came up soft.
 
clivex said:
reet. wilson was talking about enough to live on.
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And you still haven't grasped the simple mechanics of a successful betting account?
After his annus horribilis Patrick Veitch went into the 99 flat season unable to risk £10k on any single horse - by week 8, he was able to go to Windsor with the wherewithal to raise that stake to £30k, and by week 26, he had garnered profits of £747k.
Scale, and size of bank, aren't nearly as relevant as most give them credit for.
 
SlimChance said:
What's the obsession in the betting world with people being pro? What's wrong with punting and working to give yourself a lifestyle that the common man can only dream of. A valid point that is lost on many is that working allows you to network and that has value.

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Am with you on this, without quite the trappings you clearly have. But a stable job, where I am paid to do a lot of the stuff I'd need to do on my own time to make it pay as a professional, and then able to punt a little on the side suits me down to the ground.

Not convinced I have the balls/temperament to make it pay as a sole income, and not sure I'd necessarily want the hours/solitude of sitting in front of a screen all day with only Bob Coops and Mick Fitz for company, but more than happy with the balance you describe.
 
Isn't Long Run the clear bet here? Doesn't have to be near his best to win. Unioniste is a bit of a wild card but does he, or Beneficient/Harry Topper have the form to be placed in Gold Cups. Odds against Long Run looks very generous to me. Afterwards, he will be crabbed for beating nothing and not doing anything to make him a stronger gold cup candidate. If in any way fit, he should win easily.
 
reet hard said:
Wilsonl
Any punter with an ROI of 10% would only need to turn over around 6k a week to earn a reasonable living. At that rate, a starting bank of c30k should cover most contingencies.
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£600 a week?? You planning on living on baked beans?
 
Very good read DG and he's also a good amateur jockey too - he rode William for us last season and is going to ride for us this season too I hope.

Martin
 
davidjohnson said:
Am with you on this, without quite the trappings you clearly have. But a stable job, where I am paid to do a lot of the stuff I'd need to do on my own time to make it pay as a professional, and then able to punt a little on the side suits me down to the ground.

Not convinced I have the balls/temperament to make it pay as a sole income, and not sure I'd necessarily want the hours/solitude of sitting in front of a screen all day with only Bob Coops and Mick Fitz for company, but more than happy with the balance you describe.
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Yes and in your job you will be able to bounce ideas and bets off similarly intelligent people and that keeps you sharp. None of us have an original thought for every bet we place, most of mine are stolen from others. Sitting in front of a PC all day you have access to the Betfair forum...

Going 'pro' is not a PED (Positive Equity Decision).

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HawkWing said:
Isn't Long Run the clear bet here? Doesn't have to be near his best to win. Unioniste is a bit of a wild card but does he, or Beneficient/Harry Topper have the form to be placed in Gold Cups. Odds against Long Run looks very generous to me. Afterwards, he will be crabbed for beating nothing and not doing anything to make him a stronger gold cup candidate. If in any way fit, he should win easily.
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I think the only reason he's 2.25 is the worry that more than a few of Nicky's are running below normal for the yard.

Where Long Run is concerned I wouldn't worry. It doesn't take much to work out his plan. Long Run has very little chance of winning another King George and even less chance of winning a Gold Cup again.

Though some might disagree which way round that should be the but either way the writing looks on the wall for Long Run......his days at the very top are over.

When they get to that stage in their career the best way to go is get them fit as fleas and grab what you can while you can.

For me Long Run is a 1/2 shot to take this and as much as I am not a fan of value the price available looks like a gift.
 
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Long Run has less to beat than either of his past 2 seasonal debuts, and ought to win this cosily. Wetherby's new sharper track and easier fences may give the lie to the notion that he's nothing but a plugger, also.
 
A Gawd-awful race - seriously ****. I'll take my chances on Benefficient getting weight and at 13/2, though if SWC sends him on and makes it a test, Long Run will win. Any other tactic, and he's very-much vulnerable, imo.
 
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