cheltenham 2017

EC1 said:
the best figure i've got for Big Bucks was when he won 2012 World Hurdle..that year as with this they went a decent pace..and the ground was nearly identical to this years..but thats just my opinion.......in fact officially it was faster..7.6 that year to 7.0 this on going stick....Big Bucks won in 344.2..Thistlecrack won in 342.6.

1.6 seconds faster..on officially slower ground if you go by the going stick..and he finished with a higher % than par suggesting he wasn't slowing down at the end..whereas was all out

thats why i rate him highly
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Very interesting, as ever, EC1.

I've just simul-run the 2012 WH and last week's race from the rail opening just after the start. The 2012 race was in front virtually throughout and was over 20 lengths ahead at one point. Thistlecrack closed it down to 10 lengths at the line but there were more horses travelling well in the 2012 race and still in the picture at the last.

I have to wonder if the current crop has no strength in depth.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Very interesting, as ever, EC1.

I've just simul-run the 2012 WH and last week's race from the rail opening just after the start. The 2012 race was in front virtually throughout and was over 20 lengths ahead at one point. Thistlecrack closed it down to 10 lengths at the line but there were more horses travelling well in the 2012 race and still in the picture at the last.

I have to wonder if the current crop has no strength in depth.
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i'll do some split comparisons later DO..i'm wondering if the first hurdle was in a different place in 2012...done a rough check and Thistlecracks comes out a lot faster than BB's....too fast for them to be in the same place....i'll time from when they pass fences..hurdles positions are notorious for being moved..thats ok to a degree..unless its the first one thats wrong. The best start point i reckon is when they pass the first fence before the first hurdle
 
my best figure for BB was when beating Punchestowns (176)
subsequently the best ones were 175 beating Time For Rupert in March and 174 beating Dynaste in the Cleeve

Thistlecrack last week is a 177

Big Bucks was a true champion but I dont think he was ahead of Baracouda or Limestone Lad at their best.
 
EC1 said:
i'll do some split comparisons later DO..i'm wondering if the first hurdle was in a different place in 2012...done a rough check and Thistlecracks comes out a lot faster than BB's....too fast for them to be in the same place....i'll time from when they pass fences..hurdles positions are notorious for being moved..thats ok to a degree..unless its the first one thats wrong. The best start point i reckon is when they pass the first fence before the first hurdle
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No problem, EC1, but take your time... I need to sort out tomorrow's Haydock card! :)
 
well they both tough pace races..but in different ways..strong first circuit by BB...then strong 2nd circuit by Thistlecrack

Thistlecrack83.1193.9982.9872.59332.67
Big Bucks81.4379.9094.8581.43337.61

<colgroup><col width="86"><col width="121"><col width="86"><col width="86"><col width="95"><col width="86"></colgroup> <tbody>
[TD="width: 86"][/TD]
[TD="width: 121"]Past fence top of hill[/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]Pass 1st fence 2nd circ[/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]Past fence top of hill 2nd circ[/TD]
[TD="width: 95"]Finish[/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]Total[/TD]

</tbody>
 
Times never tell the whole story and they most certainly don't when it comes to Big Bucks.

He and Thistlecrack are like Chalk and Cheese as types. Big Bucks would doss when given the chance but trying to pass him and many tried and never did he would pull out more.

I see all these figures going up now claiming you get 177 175 176 whatever but based on what exactly.

Forgetting Big Bucks for a moment how about comparing him against Cole Harden's performance last year

Thistlecrack GOOD (Good to soft in places; 7.0) TIME 5m 42.60s (slow by 1.60s) Alpha Des Obeaux 156 Bobs Worth 150 7 Lengths 22 Lengths

Cole Harden GOOD (Good to soft in places 7.2) TIME 5m 40.70s (fast by 0.30s) Beat Saphir Du Rheu 165 and Zarkandar 160 3 1/4 lengths + 3 1/4 lengths

At first glance Cole Harden look superior as far as I can make out. Better Race better time stronger opposition

Look closer and there's another factor to consider.

What was the ground they actually raced on like?

Thistlecrack supposedly Good 7.1 Going the next day 7.9

Cole Harden supposedly 7.2 on the Friday 6.3

Obviously it rained at some point last year but what's more to the point the ground was drying out big time this year between Thus and Friday.

It certainly would put doubt in my mind if I was rating Thistlcrack based on time.

Everything on paper including time and opposition would suggest Cole Harden put up a better performance and was given a 166 rating for his trouble

Am I missing something here?

When we look at the performance visually Thistlecrack stands out like a sore thumb as the better horse but as Cole Harden has been running like a 140 rated mule there's no real evidence to back that up other than our eyes.

Run the two races side by side and Cole Harden last year makes Thistlecrack looks slow and himself for that matter.

The pace this year was very slow because Cole Harden was never really travelling as a result side by side Cole Harden crosses the line and Thistlecrack is half way up the run in.........be easily 10 lengths behind.

He may be the greatest World Hurdle winner of all time but the evidence supporting it is extremely weak and I defy anyone who says beating a 156 rated horse by 7 lengths justify a 174 rating.....The time doesn't justify it either.

He's beat nothing of note bar horses who have run miles below their best compared to Big Bucks who beat horses like Oscar Whisky, Punchestown, Don't Push It, Grand Cruz, V la V, Lough Derg and many more who couldn't live with him.

He's a lovely horse Thistlecrack and he may be the next Arkle or he maybe he's the next Grand Cruz who's claim to fame lasted a very short time but my cash would have been firmly on Big Bucks every time
 
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On the contrary..times are a very good indicator of ground speed and horse ability if the proper work is put into them. You can't compare last year with bare times to this due to the different ground speed on the day. The going stick isn't much use when the ground is drying quickly and its taken 12 hours or whatever before a race starts. Look how quickly the ground dried this year to see how fast it dries out there.

The times on the new course last year were the fastest day 3 times in 10 years..the drying ground thursday made it look like we would have a fast ground Friday if clerk didn't water or if it didn't rain..as it was ..it peed it down.

The ground was +2 lpm fast compared to this years -10 lpm. Thats 12 lengths per mile different. Over 3 miles the ground would be 36 lengths faster last year compared to this making any bare time comparison false without adjustment for track speed.

The whole point of making figures is you see the ground on the day for what it is compared to all the races on the card. The other race times on each card tell the true going on each day. These are the times for each race in both years which show the ground was faster last year.

JLT 2015 = 286.30
JLY 2016 = 295.20

the JLT was 13 seconds faster in 2015
----------------------------------------------------
Pertemps 2015 = 341.10
Pertemps 2016 = 349.20

Pertemps was faster by 8 seconds in 2015
-----------------------------------------------------
Ryanair 2015 = 301.10
Ryanair 2016 = 305.50

Ryanair was faster by 4 seconds in 2015
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World Hurdle 2015 = 340.70
World Hurdle 2016 = 342.60

World hurdle was 1.9 seconds faster in 2015
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2m5f handicap 2015 = 312.00 [slow pace]
2m5f handicap 2016 = 313.10

2m5f handicap was 1.10 faster in 2015 but would have been even faster given the same pace as 2016
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26f Chase 2015 = 393.6
26f chase 2016 = 403.8

26f chase was 10 seconds faster in 2015
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Apart from the 2m5f hcp which was a false pace in 2015 ,,would have been faster.....all the races are faster in 2015 due to the ground..interesting though that Thistlecrack was a lot nearer Cole Hardens time than the other races were to each other. The Ryanair for instance in both years was solidly run with two very good winners,,but the time was 4 seconds quicker in 2015 due to dryer ground.

The closeness of thistlecracks time to the 2015 version tells you that this is a good time performance just on its own..once you put proper figures to each performance ..you will get Thistlecrack at about 174 rating based on time..some have it higher..but i rate conservatively..i don't over rate..and i don't let bias influence me..normally the 3 mile hurdle division holds no interest for me ..so i have no need to blow figures up.

Add in to the equation the way thistlecrack flew up the hill with more to give compared to how other WH winners finish their race..and you have a very smart performance.
 
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OK EC I accept the times were all faster but your figures looked a bit questionable. the 36 lengths catching my eye, so I dug a bit deeper

You say on time you got a rating of 174 but you are bordering on the impossible to get there.......I think :blink:

Thistlecrack would have to have run a time of 5min33.60 in last years race on my calculations using your figures

His time this year less 36 lengths @ 4 lengths per second???? is that correct?

So if we place him in Cole Hardens race his time would be 3 seconds faster than any horse has ever covered the distance

The course record is held by the 2000 Word Hurdle winner Bacchanal TIME 5m 36.60s (fast by 4.40s) That BTW was on Good to firm ground
 
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Tanlic said:
OK EC I accept the times were all faster but your figures looked a bit questionable. the 36 lengths catching my eye, so I dug a bit deeper

You say on time you got a rating of 174 but you are bordering on the impossible to get there.......I think :blink:

Thistlecrack would have to have run a time of 5min33.60 in last years race on my calculations using your figures

His time this year less 36 lengths @ 4 lengths per second???? is that correct?

So if we place him in Cole Hardens race his time would be 3 seconds faster than any horse has ever covered the distance

The course record is held by the 2000 Word Hurdle winner Bacchanal TIME 5m 36.60s (fast by 4.40s) That BTW was on Good to firm ground
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you are ssuming that Cole Harden ran a speed figure last year in line with his OHR though...but he didn't,,you are looking at this in a reverse way which is overcomplicating it a bit imo

if you just look at the 3 mile handicap/WH comparison

Last year...Call the cops win was a solid par speed figure for that horse in the handicap...Cole harden only ran 0.4 seconds faster..making Cole Harden's speed figure only 151. Both races were decently run and the time figure for WH wasn't anything special.

The 3m handicap when truly run is a pretty good marker the world hurdle just on its own..last year CH only beat that race by 0.4 seconds..and it wasn't a pace issue as both finishes showed both were true tests

this year.....again both true tests...but this year Thistlecrack beats the handicap by 6.6 seconds

that one comparison tells you that Thistlecrack is a big figure..and he wasn't even really under pressure to beat the handicap by 6 seconds

this comparison in both years is valid re overall times due to all the races being run to show the true ability of the horses involved

Like i said..i don't usually give the 3m hurdling division any interest,,but this to me was a standout staying performance..which apart from Big Bucks..i've not seen before.

I'll be very surprised if the 2nd horse does not back this up..maybe not if turned out quickly at Aintree..but the 2nd is better than his mark imo and will show it
 
I don't think there's anything complicated about it.

If you want to give horses huge ratings then the case should be rock solid don't you think?

Looking at the form the list of horses that beat Alpha Des Obeaux is impressive but he himself is probably a bit high in the handicap.

He runs Arctic Fire to 4 lengths but he wins doing handstands and ADO 147 flat out finishes 3/4 length in front of Gwencily Berbas 139 and the handicapper bangs him up 5 lbs

Why I ask?

He then running off 152 gets his ass handed to him on a plate by Prince Of Scars 145 but does have Martello Tower 149 behind so he leaves him on 152 which answers my first question of Why

Then his luck runs out and ruins any chance he'd have if running in a handicap when he beats At Fisher's Cross a complete rogue and professional loser.
He also has the AB winner Martello Tower who we now know has gone at the game miles behind.........bumped up another 4lbs.

I honestly don't know where I would rate him but I certainly won't be holding my breath waiting for him to give Thistlecrack a boost.

Thistlecrack is outstanding there's no deny that but he'll have to do his own boosting IMO

I honestly can see more reasons for opposing the BHO's view than supporting it.
 
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well.. i'll stand by my rating for him..right or wrong..they stand me in good stead..when they don't i'll bin em and use me time more wisely.

like i said earlier though....remove thistlecrack from the race and what rating would people give the 2nd as a winner of the race?
 
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a remedial knowledge of mouse morris will tell you that he is the king of getting horses to cheltenham and they run above previous form. he thinks alpha des obeaux could be as good as anything hes ever had which includes war of atrition so i think you are guilty of underestimating him - a much better horse on better ground. he's a 160+ horse and will prove it in time if he hasn't already

thistlecrack a monster.
 
Mouse has said the same thing about several horses Giggy have given him over the years

He might make a decent staying chaser in time but the ease in which Prince of Scars Arctic Fire and N Canyon and Thistlecrack disposed of him makes him very ordinary over hurdles.

The World Hurdle contenders are few and far between

I've covered ADO then we have Bob's Worth who has done nothing over hurdles recently his only win coming in a non event against an unfit Simonsig

Cole Harden ran deplorably badly and was beaten too far out to say that was within 2 stone of his best.

Whisper never ran a message and was having a well needed run before Aintree

Aux Ptits Soins flattered to deceive but is probably the a horse who will prove better than the result.

Looking at what's around and at the certainty that Mouse Morris will send ADO over fences if they send Thistlecrack chasing they are completely off their rockers

With the Million Pound or so he's guaranteed to pick up over hurdles they could buy another couple of young horses to go chasing Gold Cup dreams.

There's not a decent staying hurdler in training.... over jumps we got young horses like Vautour, Douvan, Minella Rocco, Un Temps Pour Tout, Blacklion and possibly Yorkhill the list goes on and on and then you got Cue Card Don Cossack to contend with.Thistlecrack has never faced anything of that calibre and to throw him in there would be a huge gamble IMO
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Wins an Arkle and finishes second in a QM the following year 😕 I have always felt the horse was slightly overrated and appreciate that Mullins et all have unprecedented depth and options but skipping the festival would be lunacy, Ryanair horse for me on good ground and the QM on softer.
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absolute nonsense wouldn't get 2m5f in a horse box
 
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