cheltenham 2017

EC1 said:
from BHA link DG posted

Whether he was tiring, idling or something else, I’m strongly of the view the six-and-a-half-length margin was the best measure of Sprinter Sacre’s superiority on the day and rounded that up to 7lb. He now tops the division at 175, a 5lb improvement on his pre-race figure. We all know that’s shy of his career-defining 188 performances from the spring of 2013 but let’s not quibble!


Special Tiara is a likeable gelding and he retains his rating of 168, which he achieved when winning last spring’s Celebration Chase as well as when finishing second in the Tingle Creek and third here. He was probably unlucky not to hold on to second, having been edged out only on the nod.
Click to expand...

One minute we are talking about Sprinter Sacre being a TF 192p horse the next minute we are talking BHA ratings.

It seems people just throw up whatever one suits them at the time.

You EC even said something the other day about Timeform are always higher than the BHA to fit in with your argument.

So why aren't they rating him around 180 which is the norm according to you? Not just you either it's pretty much common knowledge.

I have put forward already that Special Tiara is an improving horse capable of much more than the 166 Timeform rated him pre-race

They face upped him 2lbs and for me based on a very unlucky second to Sire De Grugy he's good for anything up to 4 lbs

That would make him a 174 horse which fits in nicely with Timeform's rating of 174+

To me UDS has run to what he actually is. There was no solids evidence that supported a 180p rating

Sire De Grugy having his 3rd hard race, his stable companion running him so close, running like a mule in the QMCC it absolutely reeks of UDS being flattered by his win over SDG and the rating he got.

The excuse the ground was against UDS is complete nonsense. You simply don't travel through a race the way he did on ground you don't go on. Stick in Gods Own and you could easily argue he has run to form and Special Tiara is the improver

I think Timeform are making complete fools of themselves having virtually nothing between UDS and Sprinter Sacre on their ratings.

Either Sprinter Sacre is a 178/180 horse these days and UDS has never been better than his current 174+

OR I am wrong about Special Tiara and he is a 168 horse and UDS is no better than a 170.

Or if you want to be crazy about it Special Tiara is a 180 Horse UDS can keep his 180p and Sprinter can have a 186 rating thank you :0)
 
Here's some more crazy :- Winner of 4 staying Hurdles Thistlecrack in now rated the joint best staying hurdler of all time with Big Bucks who won 18 races on the trot......above Barcouda may I add.


Smith claims he was visually impressed with him.................So was I because I backed him but I was visually impressed by him being pushed out after the last and beating a 155 rated handicapper by 7 lengths...even doubling the distance I can't get to 174?...............:blink:
 
Last edited:
Tanlic said:
Here's some more crazy :- Winner of 4 staying Hurdles Thistlecrack in now rated the joint best staying hurdler of all time with Big Bucks who won 18 races on the trot......above Barcouda may I add.


beating a 155 rated handicapper by 7 lengths............:blink:
Click to expand...

this is where your consistency falls apart Tanlic imo

you think a 10 raced hoss like ADO has absolutely zero improvemnt in him and are happy to accept he can never be greater than the 156 he is currently rated...so a horse beating him 7 is only a 163 hoss

but on the other hand..you think 23 raced Special Tiara has suddenly improved to suit your fav hoss.

there is no consistency in your arguments..imo
 
EC1 said:
this is where your consistency falls apart Tanlic imo

you think a 10 raced hoss like ADO has absolutely zero improvemnt in him and are happy to accept he can never be greater than the 156 he is currently rated...so a horse beating him 7 is only a 163 hoss

but on the other hand..you think 23 raced Special Tiara has suddenly improved to suit your fav hoss.

there is no consistency in your arguments..imo
Click to expand...


Spot on
again and again
 
You two bum pals will never get over being wrong willya?

I made a perfectly legitimate statement about Big Bucks having done it so many times that no horse after beating such a lowly rated animal a mere 7 lengths is entitle to all but dethrone him.

I also put it to you on several occasions that on aline through Sire De Grugy there is a possibility Special Tiar has improved.

You fooking ignore the fact the horse barely jumped a fence that day and still almost one.

Plus you ignore the fact he may well have stripped a lot fitter on the day.

You also ignore that Sire de Grugy may well have run below his best as he did at Cheltenham.

That all makes you a fool as far as I am concerned.

If you only look at one possibility you will end up well and truly skint if you aren't already.

The difference between us in this debate is I said beforehand and afterwards UDS was over rated and I stick by that.
 
EC1 said:
this is where your consistency falls apart Tanlic imo

you think a 10 raced hoss like ADO has absolutely zero improvemnt in him and are happy to accept he can never be greater than the 156 he is currently rated...so a horse beating him 7 is only a 163 hoss

but on the other hand..you think 23 raced Special Tiara has suddenly improved to suit your fav hoss.

there is no consistency in your arguments..imo
Click to expand...

And another thing Special Tiara ran a 180p horse to a nose ADO got his ass handed to him on a plate I don't see the comparison
 
It doesn't matter how often Big Buck's ran to say 174, if Thistlecrack exceeds that once he's the better horse, in the same way Hawk Wing remains AOB's best despite only running to a mark that makes him that just the once.
 
Last edited:
You two bum pals will never get over being wrong willya?

i'm not keen on bumming tbh...are we back in school here with this stuff?

unlike you i admit when i'm wrong..you aren't capable of doing so by the looks of it...and have a bias towards horses that means you will be wrong more often than many..P&C being an example along with SS over the last couple of seasons..blindly backing them coz they fav hosses

I made a perfectly legitimate statement about Big Bucks having done it so many times that no horse after beating such a lowly rated animal a mere 7 lengths is entitle to all but dethrone him.

This is one of the aspects where you blatantly don't understand handicapping,,ratings aren't added for number of times won

I also put it to you on several occasions that on aline through Sire De Grugy there is a possibility Special Tiar has improved.

i disagree..so does everyone organisationthat compiles ratings

You fooking ignore the fact the horse barely jumped a fence that day and still almost one.

again..in a ratings sphere that can't really be measured to any degree so unlikely any ratings would add or subtract based on it

Plus you ignore the fact he may well have stripped a lot fitter on the day.

again..ratings won't add 30lbs or minus it or whatever for a horse being anywhere from 70% to 100% fit..pure guesswork

You also ignore that Sire de Grugy may well have run below his best as he did at Cheltenham.

I'd stop being obsessed by one hoss and look at the bigger picture..this basing reality on sdg thing is misleading you imo

That all makes you a fool as far as I am concerned.

Thats fine..when someone with your judgement thinks i'm smart..thats when i'll worry

If you only look at one possibility you will end up well and truly skint if you aren't already.

you mean like basing my whole judgement on one hoss like SDG all the time you mean? No i'm not sklint..in fact i've never in my life made such decent money from hosses since i took redundancy 2 years ago..thanks for the concern anyway

The difference between us in this debate is I said beforehand and afterwards UDS was over rated and I stick by that

I've never over rated him..but i know he is better than a 168 horse..and in calculating the worth of the race..he is the worst horse to judge SS from..particularly when rating off every other horse in the race gives a similar rating for SS..UDS underperformed imo by about 5 or 6lbs minimum.

TF and the official handicapper both agree on that as well. You can say what you like..you are biased against UDS and for SS..so any judgement you make will also be biased re each horse. When someone is so biased as you are..i just take your comments with a pinch of salt..thats my choice. Your choice that i am a bumming idiot is your prerogative..it don't worry me what you think to be qutet honest..you are an irrelevance to me re what you think about me.
 
Last edited:
Euronymous said:
It doesn't matter how often Big Buck's ran to say 174, if Thistlecrack exceeds that once he's the better horse, in the same way Hawk Wing remains AOB's best despite only running to a mark that makes him that just the once.
Click to expand...

I agree with that but are we to believe that was a 174 performance? There simply not enough evidence yet other than what our eyes tell us

He's a brilliant horse but the race was a joke.Can't remember who I said it to but I thought it was so bad I said on here he should be 1/4
 
you aren't looking at the ratings progression that ADO has shown Tanlic...has a progressive profile..has improved 20lb in last 6 runs.

Take Thistlecrack out of the race and what rating would you give ADO?

the race was run in a very fast time..so the form is true..without thistlecrack..he has beaten a 150 hoss 22 lengths....Cole Harden not counted..has not run to mark..Aux pits soin rated 152..beaten 33 lengths..Martello Tower was 38 behind him here..was 13 behind previously

all that points to ADO being an improver..he is no 156 hoss on that..i'd estimate a mid 160's hoss on that performance

you take the pre race rating of improving hosses too literally imo

purely on the clock Thistlecrack threw out a solid 174 rating by my calcs..the race was 6 seconds faster than 139 rated Mall Dini..giving that hoss 13lb as well

an exceptional staying performance imo
 
Last edited:
It's breaking news The greatest staying hurdler of all time has been matched....When you think about it this is up there with Sea Bird and Frankel

It's no different than something being rated alongside Night Nurse over 2 mile hurdles.

And you EC worked all this out by yourself and never thought to share.........or did I miss it?

I assume you did post it when you realised what the horse achieved as you would never be guilty of aftertiming :lol: and making it up as you go along which would be the case here if you haven't already posted such a discovery


So please show us where you posted these figures before as I don't want anyone thinking your a dick....I Thank you in advance :)
 
Tanlic said:
It's breaking news The greatest staying hurdler of all time has been matched....When you think about it this is up there with Sea Bird and Frankel

It's no different than something being rated alongside Night Nurse over 2 mile hurdles.

And you EC worked all this out by yourself and never thought to share.........or did I miss it?

I assume you did post it when you realised what the horse achieved as you would never be guilty of aftertiming :lol: and making it up as you go along which would be the case here if you haven't already posted such a discovery


So please show us where you posted these figures before as I don't want anyone thinking your a dick....I Thank you in advance :)
Click to expand...

can you post something that makes sense?..your last sentence is ironic though

you get dafter..if thats possible
 
I've deleted a few posts from the thread, for what I think should be obvious reasons. Lets try to keep it civil please guys.
 
I can't remember off top of my head, but did they omit any hurdles in the WH? Whether they did or not, presumably the removal of a hurdle ( which could conceivably have been jumped twice ) would affect the time of a race, and also the rating a horse would be given? If so, would such a rating be discarded if it were the horses highest ever?
 
Nothing omitted Dave...and even if there was they have to run round the obstacle which would negate some of the time lost jumping it..a hurdle jump slows a hoss down by approx 3 lengths..but running round the obstacle adds about 1.5 len..so by missing one hurdle it would only help a horse by about 1.5 lengths

just to add..even though Thistlecrack recorded a very good time..he still finished faster than par suggesting he can do even better..if kept to hurdles..i don't rate the GC idea much
 
Last edited:
Dont know to be honest Dave but good to see someone is questioning these things and not just jumping in head first....I am in bkk on the **** but will give your post some serious thought later

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk
 
there isn't really any jumping in head first ...its simply a straightforward process of making figures and analysing if the pace backs them up..once that process is done..job done

that way you don't need to bother about what TF or whoever come up with..you have your own
 
My current thinking:


OK, it was visually impressive but what does it amount to? OK, it was 37lbs faster than the Pertemps. BUT… it was only 19lbs faster than Limini, who didn’t have to check the light on her cigar to beat her opponents, the ratings of four of the first five of which ranged from 114 to 130 and averaged 123. They don’t tell you that because the race was over a different distance. And that’s using the RP Standard Times. Using the original STs, Limini works out 20lbs faster than Thistlecrack. Where does that leave us?

If Thistlecrack is, as suggested, up there with Big Buck’s we have to accept that Alpha Des Obeaux is 2lbs better than Thistlecrack’s pre-race rating. While there was a case for arguing that he was on a curve, his main claim to fame was that he was getting a reasonably close look at Thistlecrack’s airse at Liverpool last spring… for which he was rated 150. Ah, but… “Blaklion was well behind in fourth that day!” they cry. Yes and the 140 rated Our Kaempfer who only just got to within three lengths of winning the Pertemps off 139 was nine lengths in front of Blaklion. Thistlecrack was rated just 135 that day, by the way, so was really just as the bottom end of his curve.

Alpha Des Obeaux’s OR had been edging up lately and he went into this off 156. I can accept he’s maybe a 160 horse but I will want more evidence that he’s 10lbs better than that before I’ll accept a rating of [RPR] 178 for him. I find it hard to conclude anything other than that race fell apart. Cole Harden had been beaten 20 lengths by Camping Ground, twice beaten out of sight since, and may well have been bottomed by last year’s efforts. Bobs Worth looked okay on is return to hurdles at Aintree but it looked that day like everything else stood back to admire Simonsig and forgot how to run. But even old Bobs dropped back out of contention here and probably just plugged on past non-stayers.

I ran the two videos [this and the Pertemps] simultaneously from when they passed the open rail just at the start and the World Hurdle field got to the first just ahead but from much more of a running start. Flintham had caught up by the second and they were together over the next few but on the long run to the first downhill on the first lap the World Hurdle field drew a good 12 lengths clear and stayed there for the next lap. I think the World Hurdle field as a group couldn’t sustain that pace for three miles – the last of them was ahead of Flintham for the next mile – and most of them were done with from the top of the hill. I think what we saw here was not unlike Hawk Wing’s Lockinge or Frankel’s Guineas. The overall pace was fast and took all bar Alpha Des Obeaux, who had been racing at shorter before Christmas, out of their comfort zone.

The 164 for Thistlecrack shouldn’t be read at face value, though. I have him with ++ for this and I certainly believe he is a 170+ horse but it’s nagging me that Alpha Des Obeaux got so close and the others were so far behind. There was a time I would have taken the more generous view of the race but I’ve learned from some of the mistakes I’ve made in that respect. When Alpha Des Obeaux comes out and hacks up in a more evenly run race then I’ll come back and rethink this result.

I wouldn’t give up on Kilcooley. The ground probably went faster than he could cope with and he almost certainly was too generous with his efforts up front for so long. That Wetherby form in much softer ground still reads very well.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
the best figure i've got for Big Bucks was when he won 2012 World Hurdle..that year as with this they went a decent pace..and the ground was nearly identical to this years..but thats just my opinion.......in fact officially it was faster..7.6 that year to 7.0 this on going stick....Big Bucks won in 344.2..Thistlecrack won in 342.6.

1.6 seconds faster..on officially slower ground if you go by the going stick..and he finished with a higher % than par suggesting he wasn't slowing down at the end..whereas was all out

thats why i rate him highly
 
Last edited:
Back
Top