Cheltenham 2024 NRNB

No way Apple Away makes the Ultima cut.

Looks like the Kim Muir with 11-6.

16's NRNB 25's Ante post
 
And 138 the year before but that’s only twice in the past 10 years that 137 wouldn’t have made the cut.
 
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If she doesn't make it you'd have to question Lucinda Russell's campaigning of her. Unless there's a different target on the agenda, like maybe the Scottish National.
 
Is it maybe the case that Apple Away is not as good as most hoped she might be?

The early-season buzz about her hasn’t really been justified at any point, imo, and she wouldn’t be the first G1 winner at Aintree who took advantage, whilst the opposition were recovering from a reasonably quick turnaround after Cheltenham.

I’d be quite happy to oppose her in a Festival handicap, tbh. She’ll be overbet just because of connections, I reckon.
 
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It's a Ben Pauling festival for me...if I've interpreted the signs and noises appropriately and correctly second-guessed the races they go for.


Tellher - Supreme (I'm counting on Tellher being a very special Malinas). I think the Jango Baie form is proper Grade 1. And the well beaten 3rd there (Mighty Moth) hosed up in a (admittedly weak looking) Hereford maiden a couple of days ago.


Bowtogreatness - NH Chase Already exposed at big prices. But I fear he had to win the Kempton race by upwards of 5 lengths to have any real chance of winning this, or even to run for that matter. Very likely to run well in either of the handicaps if BP decides he's not really up to the long distance chase. BP has done it before with Le Breuil, though, so should have an idea what he needs. I'm making a call that Henry's Friend won't run, but that could be a dodgy call.


Handstands - Baring Bingham Just has to be the main stable hope for this (although I read some worrying stuff today that says they might not go). The Jukebox Man surely goes 3 miles.


The Jukebox Man - Albert Bartlett. Form against Captain Teague reads well. Expect a first 4 run.


Bad - Seems unlikely at this point to get a run in any of the three - Martin Pipe, Coral Cup, County.


Shake em - The Plate, but it probably needs to be very hard work ground. The Ultima is a viable option if it dries out a bit.

Sixmilebridge - Could be anything. If he goes in the bumper and ground doesn't find him out, can't see him being out of the first 6.

Henry's Friend - They could go NH Chase with Henry's and leave the handicaps to Bow and Shake em.

Harpers Brook - Grand Annual (possibly will go with blinkers first time)




The ground could change a few of these around. Probably best approach is to wait till closer to the Tuesday which should clear up any doubts around which race for a few of them.

EW trebles and fourfolds perming them up NRNB might give some fun. But if it doesn't, they should all win the 'right' races in future.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Is it maybe the case that Apple Away is not as good as most hoped she might be?

The early-season buzz about her hasn’t really been justified at any point, imo, and she wouldn’t be the first G1 winner at Aintree who took advantage, whilst the opposition were recovering from a reasonably quick turnaround after Cheltenham.

I’d be quite happy to oppose her in a Festival handicap, tbh. She’ll be overbet just because of connections, I reckon.
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Well, you may be right, GH but I seldom forget it when a jumper gives me a certain impression. I do think she may turn out to be a classy mare in her second season. It wouldn't be be the first or last time I've been mistaken (100's haha) but I'm determined to trust my senses. Last year her rating would have secured a 10-10 berth or thereabouts and if she does make the cut in this year's heat, I'd be more than pleased, I can tell you.

But of course , these handicaps arejust the devil aren't they - who knows, eh? 24 runners hurtling around Prestbury - well.
 
Grasshopper said:
Is it maybe the case that Apple Away is not as good as most hoped she might be?

The early-season buzz about her hasn’t really been justified at any point, imo, and she wouldn’t be the first G1 winner at Aintree who took advantage, whilst the opposition were recovering from a reasonably quick turnaround after Cheltenham.

I’d be quite happy to oppose her in a Festival handicap, tbh. She’ll be overbet just because of connections, I reckon.
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Could be that it's been trained and run with this race in mind.
 
Could be, Outsider - though it’s a bold approach for a horse that was beaten 25L in her only course start over hurdles. And even if she has, it’s not like she’s the only horse that will have been campaigned exactly that way for the Ultima.

It just feels (to me, at any rate) a bit early to be latching onto one in the race.
 
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I'll admit, GH, it's just my own fancy since I've followed her since her first foray into novice chasing. Of course, I don't expect to be successful with my choice at all, as that's usually the case at Cheltenham. A big field would be my biggest concern; she's only run against 5 max so far over fences. A 24 field is a big ask but the way I see it, there are always reasons not to back a fancy at the festival, aren't there. One thing I never forget; if I see a chaser whose jumping has made me purr at any time in the season, I'll be following it into the festival.
 
They also have Giovinco in it and I did him a/p 28s before nrnb.

It's all guesswork though and with me prices dictate a little bit.i always go a bit mad,well its Cheltenham ain't it.
I expect the Irish will dominate again trying to find horses at big prices in hcaps in multiple bets is the aim.
Every year I say I'm not doing a/p because everything is entered in more than one race but every year I still do.
 
Tanlic said:
I suspect Jack Kennedy will ride Irish Point in the Stayers Teahupoo is a bit of a one trick pony who I am not sure that Cheltenham 3m will suit.

I hammered Valadon today the plan being to put all the winnings on Irish Point if he won but NOT NRNB as I can now have a bet to nothing.
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Sick as a parrot
 
If you asked me to run off every bet I've had at Cheltenham I couldn't:t tell you half of them.I got doubles trebles single and accies some for as little as a tenner staked...I know GDC is in more than a few of them. However my worry with him is if he and Shishkin were to jump the last together my money would be on Shishkin as there's not a tougher horse in training in a tight finish...I will wait and see how things stand on the day but a saver on him is a distinct possibility
 
I've just been onto bet365 to confirm balloted out horses get refunded but I had to talk to a robot who hadn't a clue what I was on about.
I've now sent an email.when I was looking through their rules it wasn't clear whether they did or not.they used to.
I want to back one at bigger odds as I think it will run if it gets in.

I spoke to Aviva car insurance and got a robot and that was a waste of time as well.
 
LUKE said:
My understanding which I'm 100% sure of is that this is a Tattersalls rule which cannot be varied.
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Bet 365 always used to refund but when they updated their rules that's when I noticed it and so I asked the question and that's what they said.
 
No surprise - a few years ago, I backed horse AP which ran 2nd to a runner that was supplemented after I'd placed the bet.
Bet 365's response - AP bets are all in, run or not. IIRC it was a classic,so they certainly cleaned up on that contest.
 
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Outsider said:
I've just been onto bet365 to confirm that balloted-out horses get refunded, but I had to talk to a robot who hadn't a clue what I was on about.

I've now sent an email because when I was looking through their rules it wasn't clear whether they did or not, they used to.

I want to back one at bigger odds as I think it will run if it gets in.
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Outsider said:
Bet 365 They have just responded to my email.
If a horse is balloted out YOU LOSE YOUR MONEY.
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Bet 365 Ante-post rule:-

Jockey Club Rule 121 decrees that Stewards are empowered to reduce the numbers in a race if, at the overnight declaration stage, too many have been left in for the safety of horses and jockeys. AntePost bets on horses compulsorily withdrawn will be void and stakes returned. Bookmakers in these circumstances are authorised to make appropriate deductions from winning bets on the race, depending on the price(s) of the withdrawn horse(s) at the time of withdrawal in accordance with Rule 4 (Deductions). On the 'Day of the Race Prices' Rule 4 (Deductions) will also apply.
 
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reet hard said:
No surprise - a few years ago, I backed horse AP which ran 2nd to a runner that was supplemented after I'd placed the bet.
Bet 365's response - AP bets are all in, run or not. IIRC it was a classic,so they certainly cleaned up on that contest.
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Personally, I wouldn't have a problem with that scenario. I'd just put it down to the risks taken with AP betting.

I'd be fizzing mad, though, if one balloted out was deemed a loser. I'm grateful to Maxbet for quoting the relevant rule.
 
Maxbet said:
Bet 365 Ante-post rule:-

Jockey Club Rule 121 decrees that Stewards are empowered to reduce the numbers in a race if, at the overnight declaration stage, too many have been left in for the safety of horses and jockeys. AntePost bets on horses compulsorily withdrawn will be void and stakes returned. Bookmakers in these circumstances are authorised to make appropriate deductions from winning bets on the race, depending on the price(s) of the withdrawn horse(s) at the time of withdrawal in accordance with Rule 4 (Deductions). On the 'Day of the Race Prices' Rule 4 (Deductions) will also apply.
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It also says ante post bets wagers are accepted on the basis all in run or not,entered or not.
I e mailed the BHA and they said you should get paid out.
So I don't know.do I risk it to find out.
 
Outsider said:
It also says ante post bets wagers are accepted on the basis all in run or not,entered or not.
I e mailed the BHA and they said you should get paid out.
So I don't know.do I risk it to find out.
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Its definitely voided if balloted out...
 
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