Cheltenham Ante Post Competition 2013-14 (The Alan Morgan Trophy)

Please discard Cue Card from my portfolio, NA.

Some of the others are unlikely to run in the races I had in mind for them but you never know...
 
Results for the notional part of the competition will appear in the next few days - I don't want a repeat of last year :o so will make sure before posting anything.
 
Congratulations to Steve T who wins the notional part of the competition, well done also to frontrunner and Arkwright who were second and third respectively.

Hopefully there are no significant mistakes this year and here is the final table for the notional part along with the individual portfolios (more to follow in next post), please check your own and let me know if you find any discrepancies with the notional totals (there may be some issues with the potential return totals but don't worry about that as the actual calculations for this when the results are in come from elsewhere in the spreadsheet).

I'll post a couple of tables with the horse list and races later in the week as well.
 

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Rest of the portfolios are here ...
 

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I should also have said that the notional totals where 2 horses effectively 'cancel' each other out are based on highest possible total, i.e. £1000 on Vautour as a win in the Supreme would cancel out £500 on Irving for the Supreme as they cannot both win. The same principle applies to the returns column.
 
trudij said:
Is that what the £0.00 is for with my melodic rendezvous one? I was about to ask about that....


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Yes, as both MR and MTOY can't win - MTOY was worth more in your notional total so Melodic Rendezvous came out. Hope that makes sense.
 
trudij said:
They could dead heat :p

It makes perfect sense, I was just checking. While I'm on it, what are the purple lines?


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Horses with purple lines are those that are out (of Cheltenham at least), the ones with the orangey lines are those that are excluded from the portfolios to comply with the 10 horse rule.

The red bold totals in the notional column are the ones where there are contradictory horses (the figures are blue in the returns column). Members shaded in red didn't use all of their £5000 stake and all the other colours are just to make it look pretty :D
 
Lol, well that's VERY important !!!! That's cool, thankyou for the explanation for the blondes.... :) and thankyou again for all your work, all of you involved with this !


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Well done, Steve T, you are well ahead of the rest of the field in this part of the competition.

His winning entry is in the first thumbnail of New Approach's 9.03pm post above. It looks a strong enough contender for the main prize as well.
 
Grey said:
When this year's Alan Morgan Cheltenham Ante Post competition was being launched I said that I was putting up a prize of £100, the Winter prize for the person doing best overall in both that competition and DG's Ten To Follow competition.

The way it will be decided is as follows.

The AP competition is made up of two parts, the portfolio with the highest notional value at the end of February and the portfolio which goes on to make the biggest profit.

The winner of the first part of the competition, the portfolio with the highest notional value, will get 1 point, the second will get 2 points, the third 3 points, and so on.

Points for the main part of the competition, the portfolio making the biggest profit, and for the Ten To Follow competition, which ends on 3rd May, will be doubled, i.e. the winner of each will get 2 points, the second 4, the third 6 and son.

The Winter prize winner will be the person with the lowest number of points overall. Obviously enough only people with entries in both competitions will be eligible.

The first leader board will appear in a few days, when portfolios for the AP competition have been finalised.
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Here is the leader board for the Winter Prize, based on DG's most recent Ten To Follow rankings and the results of the Most Valuable Portfolio part of the Ante Post Competition.

Grassy has a strong lead in the TTF but had one or two non-runners in his Ante Post portfolio. Obviously things will change next week, and bear in mind the TTF competition runs until 3 May.


Grasshopper 15
JamesRB 16
Digger 19
New Approach 23
swedish chef 23
an capall 24
granger 25
edgt 27
SteveT 29
Grey 31
trudij 31
Aragorn 35
Jakers 38
dazzies 42
frontrunner 44
wilsonl 46
jft2005 47
fonz 51
Euronymous 54
topcat 58
Perpetual 60
Maruco 61
Roddy Owen 61
sunybay 66
chroniclandlord 68
On The Bridle 72
Diamond Geezer 74
Desperate Dan 76
 
A very well run and updated competition, well done to all especially New Approach for the spreadsheet work! Very pleased to be the 'notional' leader, lets hope we can all turn a decent profit in real terms next week!
 
I dont understand any of this. But thanks for all the hard work and just send me the prize. :D
 
You and Digger probably aren't the only ones, DG

I'll have a go at explaining it. It might help if you open a separate tab for page 7 of this thread so you can refer to edgt's portfolio while reading this.

If you look at edgt's final portfolio (the second thumbnail in New Approach's 9pm post from Monday night) there are cases where he's had
two bets on the same horse - Carlingford Lough - in the same race,
the same horse - Minella Foru - in two different races,
and two different horses - Lord Windermere and Lyreen Legend - in the same race.

This makes it an interesting portfolio for illustrative purposes.

How to value his portfolio, because not all his bets can win? The win parts of his Lord Windermere and Lyreen Legend bets can't both pay out. What we did was take the bet with the greater notional value and exclude the other one.

Eddie's £200w Lord Windermere bet was struck at 25/1 but the horse has since drifted out to 50/1, so the value of the bet is now only £100, because that is all you would now have to have on the horse in order to win the amount Eddie stands to win from his original bet. His £500ew on Lyreen Legend, on the other hand, has held its value because the odds haven't changed. It was also a bigger bet to begin with and is now worth more than the Lord W bet, so we have kept the LL bet for the purpose of valuing the portfolio and not taken the LW one into account, hence the zero in red in the 'Notional' column.

The two bets on Carlingford Lough are both in the same race, so both bets can win and both are therefore counted. One of the bets increased slightly in value because the odds have shortened from 14/1 into 12/1, because in order to win the same payout a larger stake would be needed.

The Minella Foru bets are in two different races, so it's not possible for both bets to win. The principle is to take the bet with the higher notional value into consideration and exclude the other. In this case, however, both bets were for the same amount, £150, at the same odds, 25/1, and the horse has drifted to current odds of 50/1 for both races. Therefore both bets have the same notional value and it makes no difference which one gets excluded when calculating the notional value.


The 'Potential Returns' column is really just there for illustrative purposes. The idea is to show the maximum amount the bets in the portfolio could win given the ideal outcome. So where contradictory outcomes are involved, we have used in this column the bets giving the highest potential payout and disregarded any bets paying lower amounts that are in contradiction with them.

PS Eddie, I wasn't picking on you! Honest!
 
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