Cheltenham Day 2

Tanlic

Tanlic

Senior Jockey
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The Ballymore: As stated earlier I reckon Impaire Et Passe is the best of Willie Mullins's novices. I thought he might run him in the Supreme but was worried it might all happen to quickly for him in that race.
At this point in his career this looks ideal but maybe next season he could be a Champion Hurdle horse. Willie said Gaelic Warrior has Ballymore written all over him but I doubt he can beat Impaire Et Passe.

Brown Advisory Novices' Chase :- Gerri Colombe is very short at 7/4. His 1 1/2 length win over Nicky's Balco Coastal isn't up to scratch for this IMO.
He shouldd have beaten him out of sight to be the price he is for this which is very competetive loooking.
He'll be odds on to finish in the 1st 2....I will be laying Gerri Colombe to be unplaced (2 places).

Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle: If I have a bet in this it will be for something in the place market only 5 places.
better things to do with my money than think I am smart enough to find the winner.

QMCC : Nicky doesn't often make mistakes but he got this wrong. Shishkin would have won this IMO
It's got a shockingly bad lookabout it for a QMCC

I saw Alan Kings Edwardstone as downright ordinary compared to previous Arkle winners
and I hope hope Energumene bounces back and trounces them which will give the race a bit of credibility.

Cross Country Chase: No hesitation in backing Galvin for this if he runs.

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase. Nothing from Seven Barrows which is a shame so I have no interest in this race.
bar watching it.

Weatherbys Champion Bumper: Frank Berry assumed Fact File was a good thing in the Future Stars at Leopardstown.
When my old pal Dream to Share kicked his ass he couldn't get JP's cheque book out quick enough.
You may recall I put the winner up at 22/1 because of what Patrick said and he rode the fav Fact to File in that race who went off favourite.
So he was hardly beaming with confidence about his own chances.

Had that been It's For Me he had beaten I would have said "Good Buy" but I reckon they'll wish the hadn't come 5.40pm on Wednesday.

Patrick is very sweet on It's For Me who is a totally differnt ball game and he should be clear favourite for this.


It's For Me 9/2 is my banker of the day
 
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Ballymore:
I like Inthepocket and have him broadly at the price he is now. I think the front two are fairly solid and don't really expect a return here.


Brown Advisory:
Tanlic said:
Brown Advisory Novices' Chase :- Gerri Colombe is very short at 7/4. His 1 1/2 length win over Nicky's Balco Coastal isn't up to scratch for this IMO.
He shouldd have beaten him out of sight to be the price he is for this which is very competetive loooking.
He'll be odds on to finish in the 1st 2....I will be laying Gerri Colombe to be unplaced (2 places).
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I don't really get where you are coming from here. I was keen ante-post on Minella Cocooner and when my chunk on him went south I immediately backed Gerri Colombe as this is anything but competitive. Three years ago Copperhead started 6/1 in a renewal featuring Champ, Minella Indo and Allaho. The Real Whacker reminds me of that horse - Gerri Colombe and Mighty Potter will likely be in the sub 16/1 bracket in the ante-post lists for next season's Gold Cup and The Real Whacker will probably end up in the Ultima. Thyme Hill is a questionable jumper and should have stayed hurdling, Sir Gerhard has had one start and also jumped terrible. If GC gets round he wins.


Champion Chase:
Rachael put Captain Guinness up as her charity bet in a preview night which caught my interest so I re-watched the two miler at Leop' Xmas time and he ran an interesting race. I think he's a short runner like Dysart Dynamo so being in front six out in a 2m1 event was far from ideal. As they rounded the turn that day he is actually travelling better than Blue Lord before getting outstayed. He was 66/1 at Hills and 365 last night and I took that in a couple of ew multis.


Grand Annual:
Saint Segal has been in my tracker since his run at Donny and I've got 20s about him for this. He's inexperienced but jumps and travels well and I just hope he gets up the hill much better than last year. Like Dysart Dynamo he does settle better as a chaser so I'm hopeful.


No interest in any of the other races. This is my quietest day.
 
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Impaire et passe for me (wherever it runs)
Energumene
Might I coral cup
Frero banbou grand annual.
 
If we look at how the QM plays out

EDG takes off like a bat out of hell

Energumene will stay much nearer to him and possibly GDM gets involved in this (based on trainer running plans)

Edwardstone will sit in closer but still not as far back as the Clarence house

up to the bend they line up to take him on

I think Edwardstone wins this
 
Day two bets:


Ballymore
Impaire Et Passe added to Good Land.

Broadway
Gerri Colombe a confident pick. Race is shocking weak.

Coral Cup
Fil D'Or, HMS Seahorse and Run For Oscar (Watch House Cross and Vina Ardanza to win back stake-money on the race).

QMCC
Undecided. Probably Edwardstone.

Cross Country
Galvin. Hoping track doesn't soften-up too much.

Grand Annual
Haven't really got a grip on this yet, but have backed Dad's Lad and Before Midnight, with Grey Diamond and The Last Day (probably won't get in) to cover stakes.

Bumper
No bet yet, but if it's remotely near Goodish ground, I'll be backing JP's new purchase A Dream To Share. If it's verging on Soft ground, I think I'd maybe have a pop at Fun Fun Fun getting the allowance.
 
Day 2

Ballymore - Hermes Allen because he’s my dark horse in the TTF compo. But possibly a forecast with the WPM horse
Broadway - nothing stands out for me yet
Coral Cup - maybe 3 or 4, including Camprond and Beacon Edge
QMCC - Edwardstone and GDM
Cross Country - Delta Work may prove the value on the day
Grand Annual - Global Citizen has been campaigned like last year; always have to back Ridersonthestorm too!
Bumper - the favourite and Queen’s Gamble.

My best day last year, but disgusting weather.
 
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Euronymous said:
Grand Annual. Saint Segal has been in my tracker since his run at Donny and I've got 20s about him for this.
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I remember this day and race well. Malystic gave Saint Segal 13 pounds in weight plus a half a length beating, is only 1lb worse off at the weights, and backable at nearly three times the price for the Grand Annual.

Saint Segal was finishing fast to the line and I can see why he is appealing, (also showing blue on oddschecker).

I'd rather be with Saint Segal than a few others don't get me wrong. I guess my point is there is too greater disparity between him and Malystic in the betting.

Anyway lets hope both get declared especially after Peter Niven said Malystic didn't like it last time at this course (scoped badly afterwards).

This could be an example of a trainer actually changing their minds which I find quite remarkable win, lose or draw.
 
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DannyB said:
I've had a decent each way bet on Rouge Vif in the GA. Looks a plot job to me.
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On my shortlist of 3.
I still think Frero banbou has been trained for this race and I took 33s and still 25/1.
Just watched last years race and after 5 fences he was 30L last.if he hadnt blundered the last it would have been closer.
11lb better off with the 2 that beat him.
 
DannyB said:
I've had a decent each way bet on Rouge Vif in the GA. Looks a plot job to me.
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I di have alook at him and there's been money around for him but personally I don't get it
He clearly is not a horse you could lay out with any confidence.

For one thing Daryl Jacob doesn't stop them for anyone and he finished stone last on him in December round here.

If anyone can bring the best out of a horse it's daryl so I hope he takes the mount and brings you luck.
 
Blazing Khal hasn't worked yet but a friend on social media informs me Byrne has already said he's fine and will be running in the Stayers.
 
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Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle : If Ben Pauling's horse Bad is anywhere near as good as his French rating of 138 he could be absolutely thrown in here off 125.

He apprently won't mind it being soft and according to Nico who schooled him the other day he is a small compact horse but jumps brilliantly.

Bad 8/1 ew 5 places
 
I don't believe this Ben Pauling talking about Bad has just been put up as the main story in the racing Post:blink:

I heard about it through what Nico said days ago and decided only earlier today I would be backing it.........I'm begining to think they are reading our posts:lol:
 
Tanlic said:
I don't believe this Ben Pauling talking about Bad has just been put up as the main story in the racing Post:blink:

I heard about it through what Nico said days ago and decided only earlier today I would be backing it.........I'm begining to think they are reading our posts[emoji38]
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It was 33/1 last week, Tony Mullins put it up on the Paddy Power preview night, and it has been backed steadily since. HD made a very convincing case.
 
Tanlic said:
Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle : If Ben Pauling's horse Bad is anywhere near as good as his French rating of 138 he could be absolutely thrown in here off 125.

He apprently won't mind it being soft and according to Nico who schooled him the other day he is a small compact horse but jumps brilliantly.

Bad 8/1 ew 5 places
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Rachael On it.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
It was 33/1 last week, Tony Mullins put it up on the Paddy Power preview night, and it has been backed steadily since. HD made a very convincing case.
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Wish I had known but keeping up with all these previews is very difficult.

keeping an open mind it's hard to judge how he will take to the hustle and bustle of Cheltenham.

He could be a BAD bet :lol:
 
Tanlic said:
Wish I had known but keeping up with all these previews is very difficult.

keeping an open mind it's hard to judge how he will take to the hustle and bustle of Cheltenham.

He could be a BAD bet [emoji38]
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Absolutely, when you're backing one like that, you are really taking a leap of faith as it could really be anything as the saying says. Gaelic Warrior was punted off the boards for the same reason last year and very nearly pulled it off, I watched the preview the next morning and the best I could get was 20s with Ladbrokes I think someone else mentioned it the following night and the cat was truly out of the bag. In theory he has actually 4 lbs more in hand than Gaelic Warrior had, if the French rating is correct.
 
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