Cheltenham Festival 2012: DAY 1

SteveM

SteveM

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2012 Cheltenham Festival – my Notes:

Busy time ahead of the Festival. This is where I am after trawling through them. I’ll post these notes now, such as they are. Good luck everyone.

View blog here: http://horseracingstrategyanalysis.blogspot.com

Summary:

Worthy favourites: Sprinter Sacre (Arkle), Grands Crus (RSA), Long Run (Gold Cup), Quevega (Mares’ Hurdle).

Good value: Oscar Whisky (World Hurdle), Finian’s Rainbow (Champion Chase), Starluck (County Hurdle)

Place bets: Oscar Whisky (World Hurdle), Finian’s Rainbow (Champion Chase), Menorah (Arkle)

Each-way: Starluck 33/1 (County Hurdle)

Remember that each-way doubles and trebles on alternatives to your main selection is a good strategy for clawing back on losing single win bets.


DAY 1 March 13, 2012

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m ½f
5yos or 6yos do best in this (winning 17 out of the past 20 renewals). The last favourite to win was Brave Inca in 2004, although three favourites have won in the past 10 renewals. The Irish tend to do well. Lightly exposed runners do well, although most had also won last time out before this.

Shortlist:

Steps To Freedom 6
Darlan 5
Galileo’s Choice 6
Cinders And Ashes 5
Midnight Game 5
Tetlami 6

Selections:
1) Darlan 2) Cinders And Ashes 3) Galileo’s Choice 4) Steps To Freedom 5) Tetlami

Previous winners
2011 Al Ferof 6 10/1
2010 Menorah 5 12/1
2009 Go Native 6 12/1
2008 Captain Cee Bee 7 17/2
2007 Ebaziyan 6 40/1
2006 Noland 5 6/1
2005 Arcalis 5 20/1
2004 Brave Inca 6 7/2 fav
2003 Back In Front 6 3/1 fav
2002 Like-A-Butterfly 8 7/4 fav


Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m
6yos and 7yos do well (winning 13 of the past 20 renewals). 5yos no longer have the 5lb allowance they used to receive so are unlikely to do as well as in the past. Only two winners aged over 7 in the past 20 renewals. Big priced horses tend not to do well, 8/1 or less is a good guide (6/1 in three of the past four years), but only three actual favourites (Remittance Man, Klairon Davis and Azertyuiop) have won in the past 20 renewals. Highly rated ex-hurdlers and French-breds do well.
Sprinter Sacre is a tremendously exciting novice with all of the attributes to succeed here. His Newbury form already makes him the winner. One not to oppose.

Shortlist:
Sprinter Sacre 6
Al Ferof 7
Menorah 7
Cue Card 6
Bog Warrior 8
Sir Des Champs 6
Blackstairmountain 7

Selections:
1) Sprinter Sacre 2) Menorah 3) Cue Card 4) Al Ferof

Previous winners
2011 Captain Chris 7 6/1
2010 Sizing Europe 8 6/1
2009 Forpadydeplasterer 7 8/1
2008 Tidal Bay 7 6/1
2007 My Way de Solzen 7 7/2
2006 Voy Por Ustedes 5 15/2
2005 Contraband 7 7/1
2004 Well Chief 5 9/1
2003 Azertyuiop 6 5/4 fav
2002 Moscow Flyer 8 11/2


Festival Handicap Chase Grade 3 (5yo+) 3m ½f

Shortlist:
Hold On Julio 9
Quantitativeeasing 7
Time For Rupert 8
Seabass 9
Knockara Beau 9
The Giant Bolster 7

Selections:
1) Quantitativeeasing 2) Hold On Julio 3) Time For Rupert 4) Knockara Beau e.w.


Champion Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m ½f
Serious contenders should have won, or nearly won, their last race prior to the Champion and be the right side of eight, rather than older (two of the past 20 winners were 9). Those that have won or been placed at the Festival before do well. Eight favourites have won in the past 21 renewals. At the odds it must be worth taking on Hurricane Fly. I’d nominate Binocular and Zarkandar to give the favourite most to do, while Oscar Whisky would be a danger to all if lining up here rather than the World Hurdle.

Shortlist:

Hurricane Fly 8
Binocular 8
Zarkandar 5
Starluck ? 7
Oscar Whisky ? 7
Oscars Well 7
Rock On Ruby 7

Selections:

1) Binocular 2) Zarkandar 3) Hurricane Fly 4) Rock On Ruby

Previous winners
2011 Hurricane Fly 7 11/4 fav
2010 Binocular 6 9/1
2009 Punjabi 6 22/1
2008 Katchit 5 10/1
2007 Sublimity 7 16/1
2006 Brave Inca 8 7/4 fav
2005 Hardy Eustace 8 7/2 joint-fav
2004 Hardy Eustace 7 33/1
2003 Rooster Booster 9 9/2
2002 Hors La Loi III 7 10/1


Cross Country Handicap Chase (5yo+) 3m 7f

Shortlist:
Scotsirish 11

Selection: 1) Scotsirish


David Nicholson Mares Hurdle 2m 4f

Quevega has won the past three runnings of this race as favourite, of which there have been just four renewals. Whiteoak won the inaugural running at 20/1. There doesn’t appear to be much in the way of opposition to the favourite.

Shortlist:
Quevega 8

Selection: 1) Quevega
 
granger said:
What is your reasoning behind selecting Darlan Steve?
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Fast improving 5yo. Going as well as anything when blundering at Newbury in the Betfair Hurdle and unbeaten otherwise. Trainer and owner tend to do well at Cheltenham and I quite like him. Not confident on this one though, keep your powder dry for later in the day/week.
 
...fair enough, but he may be improving faster than the others. I'm expecting him to go very close, although he's probably a little too short right now. On balance he's my best idea of the winner although it does look competitive.

Newbury form looked good to me apart from the blunder and as I also fancy Zarkandar and Getmeoutofhere elsewhere.
 
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Miller, you look a little worse for wear in that photo on the blog - couldn't you have posted something better? :p
 
DAY 1 March 13, 2012

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m ½f
5yos or 6yos do best in this (winning 17 out of the past 20 renewals). The last favourite to win was Brave Inca in 2004, although three favourites have won in the past 10 renewals. The Irish tend to do well. Lightly exposed runners do well, although most had also won last time out before this.

Shortlist:

Steps To Freedom 6
Darlan 5
Galileo’s Choice 6
Cinders And Ashes 5
Midnight Game 5
Tetlami 6

Selections:
1) Darlan 2) Cinders And Ashes 3) Galileo’s Choice 4) Steps To Freedom 5) Tetlami
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How in the name of God does a judge like you fall for Darlan?
 
A worrying stat for Darlan supporters is that he did not win last time out after taking a crashing fall. Ninety per cent of Supreme winners all won their last race and interestingly all ran in the last 40 days which is not encouraging for fans of Steps to Freedom.

My money will be going on either Trifolium or Tetlami ew. I need to think it over some more.
 
I have just cancelled an unmatched bet on Tetlami. Was watching a replay of Boylesport preview night from Leopardstown. Apparently Geraghty has been quoted as saying that "Tetlami wouldn't get within a furlong of Darlan" Back to the drawing board...:mad:
 
Kauto Abu said:
A worrying stat for Darlan supporters is that he did not win last time out after taking a crashing fall. Ninety per cent of Supreme winners all won their last race and interestingly all ran in the last 40 days which is not encouraging for fans of Steps to Freedom.

My money will be going on either Trifolium or Tetlami ew. I need to think it over some more.
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i would imagine that 85% of all the runners had won last time..so 90% of winners having done so wouldn't sway me against one that hasn't
 
Steve

where you say for example that a race has 17/20 winners that were say 5 & 6 year olds..from how many runners is that?..it could be that 7yo have won the other 3 from just 3 runners..which would make a 7yo the more significant age group
 
PRICEWISE2008 said:
I have just cancelled an unmatched bet on Tetlami. Was watching a replay of Boylesport preview night from Leopardstown. Apparently Geraghty has been quoted as saying that "Tetlami wouldn't get within a furlong of Darlan" Back to the drawing board...:mad:
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If you fancy the horse, and trust your reasons for fancying it. I wouldnt be paying too much attention to what Geraghty has to say. Go with your gut.

Mullins was cool on Pique Sous and So Young, but that won't be putting me off backing them. I have my reasons and i'm sticking to them. These preview nights can give people too much information, clouding your judgement and changing your mind.
 
hezz said:
If you fancy the horse, and trust your reasons for fancying it. I wouldnt be paying too much attention to what Geraghty has to say. Go with your gut.

Mullins was cool on Pique Sous and So Young, but that won't be putting me off backing them. I have my reasons and i'm sticking to them. These preview nights can give people too much information, clouding your judgement and changing your mind.
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Exactley. Well said. This info was supposably what Gerathy had said about him. You get a lot of that around Cheltenham. Henderson seems very happy with Tetlami.
 
Kauto Abu said:
A worrying stat for Darlan supporters is that he did not win last time out after taking a crashing fall.
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I'm not worried about this as if he had stood up it would have been interesting and the winner of the Newbury race could be the Champion Hurdle winner next week. There is nothing about Darlan that suggests to me that he will finish anywhere other than very close... 5/1 may not be generous, but looks worth risking a little.
 
EC1 said:
Steve

where you say for example that a race has 17/20 winners that were say 5 & 6 year olds..from how many runners is that?..it could be that 7yo have won the other 3 from just 3 runners..which would make a 7yo the more significant age group
Click to expand...

I understand what you are saying and the short answer is that I don’t know. But it’s good enough for me to see if there is a pattern in terms of age. For example, plenty of 5yos have run in the World Hurdle and at least a couple of good ones have run very well, but no five-year-old has actually won, whereas 5yos are successful in the Champion Hurdle. This suggests to me that a tougher and stronger type is needed to cope with the additional slog in the World Hurdle.

You might see it as lazy in not going back and totalling up the ages of all the participants of these races as far back as I can. But I’m not sure there is much benefit in terms of how we can use the information. I take the view that if a certain age group is not well represented it is for a reason and that a statistical percentage probably wouldn’t tell us much more for the additional work involved.

So the age stat is offered for what it is worth. Time is a dwindling resource at the moment and I’m hoping to find time to get a bet on.
 
SteveM said:
I'm not worried about this as if he had stood up it would have been interesting and the winner of the Newbury race could be the Champion Hurdle winner next week. There is nothing about Darlan that suggests to me that he will finish anywhere other than very close... 5/1 may not be generous, but looks worth risking a little.
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As Ruby said when he fell at the 2nd last at Newbury there was a good 3f to the finish line. He could have had easily finished 10th as won it. He found very little off the bridle at Cheltenham this year against High Storm.
 
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