Cheltenham Festival 2012: DAY 1

SlimChance said:
Galileo's Choice would be my choice with Steps To Freedom the danger.
Click to expand...

I reckon one or other of those might well be right there. I've backed one of them and am considering the other on the day.

I've had a little on Cinders but have a feeling in my water about Darlan.
 
SteveM said:
As my eye tells me though... he would have been a lot better than 10th.
Click to expand...

Maybe. We'll never know. I was on him that day at Newbury but there's no way in hell I could be on him again at his current price, after that fall. Add in the fact that I'm sure he wont find much for pressure and he's a major lay.
 
I reckon this could be Nicky Henderson's best day of the Festival for quite some time with as many as 4 winners.

Supreme Novices: Handicapper Phil Smith's charity bet for this is Tetlami which seems a bit Ironic ater Henderson slammed him for giving Darlan too much weight in the Betfair. Mind you he was sitting next to Andrew Tinkler when he gave his selection :0)
That probably means very little but the camp are split.

Darlan: Unimpressive on his last vist he scraped home in a sprint to the line of a slow pace. Less impressive than he looked said Geharty in his next run. Looked like taking part in the finsih at Newbury but based on how little he found at Cheltenham last time that is pure specualtion. Bookies made him fav when Simonsig dropped out. Money or him since but certainly not JP's who hasn't had an Antepost bet at Chelteham for years.
Bookies tend to make false fav for this, it gets them off to a flyer and very few ever win.
That said if they don't get him off the bridle before the last AP could get him home.

Tetlami: Despite winning his Cheltenham bumper easily missed the Festival last year and went to Aintree. That may have paid off as he has gone from strength to strenth since.
Barry Geharty showed a lot of confidence in his ability on the all weather at Kempton last time, allowing him to lose a couple of places about 2 furlongs out but the result was in no doubt the second he said go. He's not a hose who travels up there swinging off the bridle, he's just a very talented individual with an amazing engine who doesn't know anything else but run when asked. On a line through Vulcanite, Montbazon may appear to have the beating of Tetlami but I doubt very much is that will be the case on Tuesday but the Alan King charge is not without a chance either.

Cinders and Ashes: Anyone looking at the form book would discount him right away. His 3 last wins came on soft and heavy ground but the fact is he's probably a much better horse on good ground. His demolition of Keys went almost unoticed by the bookies and 20/1 was available for wuite some time aterwards. Now he's 3rd favourite and deservedly so. He just keeps improving and must have a great chance of getting Donald McCain of to a flyer. I backed him months ago EW but this is one tough race so I am going to back Tetlami if all is well and he tuns up, I think he may just do him for toe.

Winner: Tetlami
Best EW: Cinder and Ashes.
Best Outsider: Trifolium

The Arkle Trophy: Sprinter Scare looks in a league of his own and only sheer bad luck will see him beaten. Al Ferof is way too slow to react to pace changes or my liking and although Ruby reckons he'd beat Sprinter Sacre in a fight I doubt if Barry will hang around long enough for him to start one. I expect him to come home alone miles clear of the opposition and this to be nothing more than a exhibition round.


Winner: Sprinter Sacre

JLT Specialty Handicap: If Walk On runs I'll back him. He was very impressive on his return then beaten but that doesn't worry me too much. I would also give a chance to Baile Anrai who has a nice racing weight in a very tough race.

Walkon and Baile Anrai both ew.


The Champion Hurdle: Reigning Champion Hurricane Fly is odds on and deserves to be. he's won just about everything there is to win and did it well. Howver he has never met anything in the class of Binocular 2010 and if he turns up it could go either way.

This is my favourite race of the year. I've gone Katchit, Binocular, Binocular, Hurricane Fly and hate being wrong but I have a feeling Hurricane Fly may not be as good as he was. The drift last time and how worried WM was still bugs me despite him winning easily.
I reckon he was all out to beat PC last year AP will be aware of that and go slightly sooner than Jason McGuire did and a lot harder if the old binocular is back.

Plus I have so much on Sprinter Sace I have no desire to be backing Hurricane Fly at such cramped odds. It's not that I think Binocular is better value I also believe he could just about win and it won't cost too much to find out.

Winner: Binocular

Sizing Australia makes some appeal and could beat Scotsirish, If there's enough opposition to be laying Quevega at as low a price as possible and then backing her in running I will do. She's sure to be held up and go bigger in running if anything remotely looks like giving her the slip. I could not just bet her to win as she's been on the go too long or my liking and it's only a matter of time.

Acertac is fancied by NTD as he's improved and he's 7lbs better of for 2 lengths with
Triol DAlene. That's all well and good or it would be had the Henderson horse beenfully wound up at Acot . He was far fom spot on and is very highly rated at Seven barrows and there will be a lot of long faces if he's beaten.

I certainly wouldn't advice opposing him as I think this could be one of the easiest race at the Festival to win and he's a class horse.

Winner: Triol DAlene
 
Last edited:
Sprinter Sacre is my only bet on day one (not counting the mbs on Al Ferof) and he's my biggest ever jumps wager. I'll be in bits as my only other bets of this sort of size were at Newmarket or Epsom. Different gravy from a tension point of view.
 
Suggesting Hurricane Fly might "not be as good as he was" is a baseless hunch that flies in the face of every scrap of documentary evidence. Anyone promoting such a theory should be on a watch-list of some description, and not allowed within 15ft of a pointy object (save for their head, of course)

Anyone compounding this already gingerbread-house fantasy by promoting a hokey-cokey mutt like Binocular as the alternative, has obviously gone fully 'Billy Bibbit' and needs electrodes placed about their janglers until the doss kents see some sense.
 
Last edited:
Grasshopper said:
Suggesting Hurricane Fly might "not be as good as he was" is a baseless hunch that flies in the face of every scrap of documentary evidence. Anyone promoting such a theory should be on a watch-list of some description, and not allowed within 15ft of a pointy object (save for their head, of course)

Anyone compounding this already gingerbread-house fantasy by promoting a hokey-cokey mutt like Binocular as the alternative, has obviously gone fully 'Billy Bibbit' and needs electrodes placed about their janglers until the doss kents see some sense.
Click to expand...

:lol: I wish the CH was postponed for another fortnight just so we can have more of this. It's special :lol:
 
Hurricane Fly is an absolute fantastic horse but he hasn't been in enough classic tussles to be considered anything great yet especially after an all out victory over Peddler's Cross last year who hasn't caught the eye since.

Hurricane Fly was there to be beaten last year but another strong French traveler like Binocular who has beaten off more illustrious horses than his market rival and its not long now untill we see the colors of Hurricane Fly potentially lowered in what could be one of the greatest finishes in Cheltenham history where the more battled hardened Cantona esque should see off le wine sniffing garden sitting bird listener.
 
The only relevance of a Binocular to the Champion Hurdle outcome is that connections of the placed horses might need to use some to see Hurricane Fly
 
My selections will make everyone elses' bets look good no matter how daft they are [it's my raison d'etre]. All ew. Overturn, Brampour, Trifolium and Shop DJ. For starters, that is.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
Hurricane Fly is an absolute fantastic horse but he hasn't been in enough classic tussles to be considered anything great yet especially after an all out victory over Peddler's Cross last year who hasn't caught the eye since.

Hurricane Fly was there to be beaten last year but another strong French traveler like Binocular who has beaten off more illustrious horses than his market rival and its not long now untill we see the colors of Hurricane Fly potentially lowered in what could be one of the greatest finishes in Cheltenham history where the more battled hardened Cantona esque should see off le wine sniffing garden sitting bird listener.
Click to expand...

Beaten off more illustrious horses?who would they be?zaynar? Kyber Kim? Put down the crack pipe for a minute and get real.
 
I don't see how HF or Binocular can have beaten any illustrious horses..there are no illustrious hurdlers and haven't been for a number of years

they have both beaten whats there in their CH..i actually think Khyber Kim was a better horse than Peddlers..but you would be splitting hairs
 
That's it in a nutshell EC. If they were machines any one who could count to 10 would be loaded.

It's all in the eye of the beholder just how good each CH was . The odd horse who wins the race is blessed with amazing speed Bula and Istabraq stand out in that department in my eyes.

I backed Hurricane Fly last year 11 months before the race but on the day as delighted as I was he won. I still felt a little disappointed he never won further and easier,with a lot more authority.



Maybe on Tuesday he'll put that right.
 
I think this years CH is better than the last few tbh..its no gimme with a few who might surprise and the heavyweight HF and sometime heavyweight Binocular in a decent mix

i'm really looking forward to it
 
I have to retract my statement.

After going over a printed list of Binoculars Racing career on the train this morning he really isn't as good as I first thought.
 
On bare form your right Bruce he's ran some dreadful races since winning the Champion Hurdle and never seems to run the same way twice. Howver it's not down to what he's done its down to what we all know he is capable of and which Binocular will turn up.

Put it this way if we could guarantee the real Binocular would turn up he'd be 5/4 and not 5/1. The fact is he is 5/1 and the one horse the bookies don't want to lay is Hurricane Fly because of Binoculars record.


Interesting to hear what Ruby had to say.

He doesn't fancy Zarkandar and thinks Binocular will be second.

Footnote: He also thinks Sprinter Sacre will win and Kauto Star probably won't, but would ride him before anyting else at the Festival.
 
Very, very excited now, gets better every year!!

All antepost, ew & highly sexual :D:eek:

1:30 - Cinders and Ashes 12/1 & 10/1
2:05 - Al Ferof 7/1 & 5/1 (Multis)
2:40 - Zarrafakt 16/1
3:20 - Oscars Well 25/1 & 20/1 & 14/1
4:00 - Don't know don't care ;)
4:40 - Kentford Grey Lady 16/1 & 14/1
5:15 - Depends if I've done my cobblers or not :p

Good luck everyone :):):)
 
Apart from his decent number form he would need to find a lot to make the frame BackHander.

Have we underestimated Zaidpour in the Champion Hurdle?

His performance over three miles against Volder La Vedette giving away 7lbs was worthy of the high 160's - you could say it's at least a 165 performance.

The question is whether the horse has the pace for 2 miles around Cheltenham and can he adjust away from heavy ground?

If Mullins chooses to take the World Hurdle instead then he could be a decent bet?
 
Colour Squadron 14/1 EW with Skybet (5 places)
Sprinter Sacre
Fruity O'Rooney 20/1 EW and Baile Anrai 14/1 EW
Hurricane Fly
Scotsirish
Quevega and Shop DJ 20/1 EW
Going Wrong 12/1 EW and Vino Griego 25/1 EW

A few multiples chucked in as well.

See how we get on with that lot. Best of luck to everyone.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top