Cheltenham Festival 2012: DAY 3

SteveM

SteveM

At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
7,130
Location
London
DAY 3 March 15, 2012

Jewson Novice Chase Listed 2m 4f

Shortlist:
Sir Des Champs ? 6
Peddler’s Cross 7
Al Ferof 7
Silviniaco Conti 6
Champion Court 7
Solix 6
Bog Warrior 8
For Non Stop 7
Cristal Bonus 6

Selections:
1) Sir Des Champs 2) Peddler’s Cross 3) For Non Stop 4) Solix


Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle Listed 3m

Unlike several high profile handicaps do not be put off those carrying bigger weights.

Shortlist:
Our Father 6 11-3


Ryanair Chase Grade 2 2m 5f

Previous Cheltenham winners win this. Older horses do fine. Concentrate on first handful in betting.

Shortlist:
Noble Prince 8
Somersby 8
Captain Chris ? 8
Rubi Light 7
Riverside Theatre 8
Medermit 8
Poquelin 9
Kauto Stone 6
Alberta’s Run 11
Great Endeavour 8
Quel Esprit 8
Kalahari King 11

Selections:
1) Nobel Prince 2) Riverside Theatre 3) Somersby 4) Rubi Light 5) Medermit/Captain Chris






Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 3m
Steer clear of 5yos (no 5yo has won this) and those aged in double figures. 6, 7, 8 and 9yos are all capable of winning. No Irish-trained winner for 15 years. The Long Walk and Cleeve Hurdles are key guides. Oppose those who race prominently. Big Bucks again looks to hold a fine chance, with Oscar Whisky the one expected to put it up to him this year. Oscar Whisky in the market w/o the favourite looks the bet.

Shortlist:
Big Bucks 9
Oscar Whisky 7
Thousand Stars 8
Dynaste 6
Voler La Vedette 8
Carlito Brigante 6
So Young 6
Mourad 7
Zaidpour 6

Selection: 1) Big Bucks 2) Oscar Whisky 3) Mourad 4) So Young

Previous winners
2011 Big Buck's 8 10/11 fav
2010 Big Buck's 7 5/6 fav
2009 Big Buck's 6 6/1
2008 Inglis Drever 9 11/8 fav
2007 Inglis Drever 8 5/1
2006 My Way De Solzen 6 8/1
2005 Inglis Drever 6 5/1
2004 Iris’s Gift 7 9/2
2003 Baracouda 8 9/4 joint-fav
2002 Baracouda 7 13/8 fav



Byrne Group Plate Handicap Steeple Chase Grade 3 (5yo+) 2m 5f

No Selection



FWKM Challenge Cup 3m 1½f

No Selection
 
Last edited:
I seriously think punters are getting carried away with the soft ground theory and Rubi Light.

He's only ran twice on good ground, (both by far the biggest races he's took part in so far in his career) and finished a more than creditable 3rd to Albertas in this race last year and then second to Syncronised. It's not like the horse has no form on Good, and it's not even that clear to say on known form he's better on soft. I don't think he's ever even contested a soft ground grade one chase.

I hope everyone jumps on the bandwagon and lays the balls off him in the E/W and win market so I can get a nice bet on tomorrow E/W at would could be double digit odds. I can't see him out the frame, and the bit of watering they're doing will just slow everything down a touch which will be perfect for him.
 
Last edited:
I hope you're right Marble but I can't say I'm confident. If he made a mistake in the race last year why won't it happen again - especially if it was because he was jumping out of ground he didn't appreciate. I have 12/1 overall on Medermit and am far more confident about him.

Nick Williams needs to pull his fecking socks up and train a Festival winner before I leave him for Rebecca Curtis. For Non Stop will love the hill (assuming he's still actually in the race). Peddlers I have in a multiple, SDC's form is hella overrated.

Oscar Whisky is a great back to lay shot. He's bound to touch 5/2 in running at worst.
 
I'm mistaken, he beat Joncol 5L on heavy in the John Durkan.

Is that really better form than finishing 3L off Albertas in this race last year on Good ground?
 
Last edited:
@Swedish Chef

Why did you tip Sir Des Champs in the preview night, but Peddlers Cross in the comp?

Just wondering...
 
I went into the pub to watch the first 2 races today and one of my mates got a text saying Willie wasn't happy with the bloodcount of some of the horses but it was hit and miss trying to work out which ones were below par.
The original source of the information was one of Willies brothers.
 
Marble said:
I seriously think punters are getting carried away with the soft ground theory and Rubi Light.
.
Click to expand...

I agree here, have looked at last years race twice tonight, look at the way he absolutely pings the last, bar clouting the 2nd last he would have been right there.

He has most definitely improved from last year, got 3m at Leop over xmas so the trip is no issue, I give him a real shout tomorrow
 
Trainer has said all along (and still does) that Rubi Light is better on soft ground, and I see no reason to doubt him. Fact is, he wasn't quick enough on similar ground last year and is unlikely to be this. His other run on good ground was over 3m, which he is to be campaigned at next year, and gives him more time to negotiate fences. Highly likely to be outjumped/outsped on this ground, imo, and will struggle to make the places.
Unoriginal, but Riverside Theatre looks a good bet, to me.
 
By the rationale of your Rubi Light position why should Riverside Theatre be any more suited to this race than he was to the Arkle. It's bullshit that they went to fast in that race for him, Somersby wasn't outpaced. He just stayed on through tired horses at the end. I think he's the worst favourite of the week.
 
Euronymous said:
By the rationale of your Rubi Light position why should Riverside Theatre be any more suited to this race than he was to the Arkle. It's bullshit that they went to fast in that race for him, Somersby wasn't outpaced. He just stayed on through tired horses at the end. I think he's the worst favourite of the week.
Click to expand...

Considering Somersby's been outpaced over 2m every time he's run at the top level, and this race is over 5f further than the Arkle, there really is no case to answer, M'Lud.
 
Captain Chris. Got to be involved this is his time of year with the ground massively in his favour. Finians franked the Arkle form in no uncertain terms yesterday. You obviously have to put a line through his last run but if you believe what Hobbs said then it's more than possible that was an aberration.
 
Hamm said:
Anyone else keen on Solix e/w in the first?
Click to expand...

Not really think his form is possibly weak. Couldn't blame you though the form hendos in. If you back all his runners blind to level stakes for rest of week I think you'll end up in profit
 
I thought he should have beaten Champion court lto and was giving weight. Sir des Champs looks slow, and don't think For Non Stop is top class. Couldn't back Peddlers with stolen money, and that only leaves Cristal Bonus and Solix.
 
Last edited:
Solix ran very well at the Festival last year. When I re watched the races the other week I put him down as one to follow this time round. I've always said I'd back Blazing Tempo in whichever race she runs in, so it's a worry that the Mullins horses are under a cloud.
 
Just about have my nose in front for the week but very difficult day today - tomorrow doesn't look much better.

Jewson looks impossible - have a position on Sir des Champs and Peddlers Cross so will have small savers on For Non Stop and Cristal Bonus - still wouldnt be sure I can come out ahead as Champion Court & Solix look dangerous. William Hill App concession has been excellent all week paying out up to €50 on horses placing second in every race.

Ryanair - Equally impossible but small stakes EW Great Endeavour although he is friendless.

World Hurdle - Oscar Whisky with the WHill App concession @ 9/2 is a fair bet for small stakes.

Handicaps look impossible but have had small ew's on Accross the Bay, Niceonefrankie and Becauseicounldntsee.

Keep it in your pocket...
 
In two minds on the Jewson. Mad keen to go with Sir Des Champs, but the trip and stable form are worrying me. Also I note that Ted Walsh has put up his charity bet as Cristal Bonus (surely he would knowhow strongly Ruby fancies him). Given that Cristal Bonus was considered for the Arkle and the ground is a little on the Softer side today, are we about to see something special.....
 
Back
Top