Cheltenham Festival 2018 Antepost Bets

Great time of year for ante post. I've got stuck into multiples and singles since Fairyhouse. In terms of multiples I think there is a big angle putting JLT/RSA horses in multiples. It can't be that hard to be confident of some runners in these races and their prices are related. For me the best angle is the Arkle, I can't see how the front two in the betting won't line up.

Arkle
Footpad 6/1 Brain Power 10/1 8/1
Always a race to cut up. Both of these horses have it as their obvious target. How can one or both of these not go off much shorter.

Champion Hurdle
Buveur D'Air 3/1
Have my doubts about Faugheen. At current prices the champ looks solid.

Champion Chase
Douvan 3/1
No brainer. They could have taken the easy option and gone for the Hilly Way. Expecting him to look back to his best in the Tingle Creek. Have to take a piece of him now.

RSA
Monalee 7/1
Plenty of question marks about what goes for which race with so many having JLT and 4 miler options. Think 7/1 this is an obvious one to have onside.

JLT
Death Duty 8/1 really is my NAP right now. So much scope for this to go off sub 3/1 in this race.

Mares Novice Hurdle
Salsaretta 8/1
As soon as this is entered you'll need something on her. She's a proper talking horse and even if she beats trees FTO she could be 5/2 fav for this.

Gold Cup
Might Bite 7/1 6/1
Any price a good price before the 26th.
 
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I took 25/1 Beer Goggles for the Stayers' Hurdle. I don't think there was that much of a fluke about his defeat of UNWIMH the other day and it looks like they're definitely going to try their luck with him. If he can improve 5-7lbs again by March, he has to be in the mix. I think his hurdling technique is excellent too.
 
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I think that's a fair enough shout, DO.

The Stayers is a race I was (possibly still am*) going to have a look through tonight, as it looks far-and-away the most open of the Championship races at the Festival.

* We'll see. I've had a bottle of plonk, and I'm now on the French coffees.
 
Grasshopper said:
I think that's a fair enough shout, DO.

The Stayers is a race I was (possibly still am*) going to have a look through tonight, as it looks far-and-away the most open of the Championship races at the Festival.

* We'll see. I've had a bottle of plonk, and I'm now on the French coffees.
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Start at the top. What's wrong with 7/1 Nichols Canyon, 7/1 Unowhatimeanharry or even 3/1 the pair?
 
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I wouldn't trust harry and he will be 10 next year. I think Fry got a lot out of this horse just did not win the big one in the spring.
Nichols Canyon is the reigning champ in a weak division and have not seen compelling evidence that he has regressed or is untrustworthy
His record for Mullins is exemplary. 9 wins 3 secs and 5 3rds one fell and unseated.

He's the champ and 8 next year and the horse they have to beat imb. Beer Goggles is interesting although the sectional report I got was nothing out of the ordinary.
 
brendanr said:
His record for Mullins is exemplary. 9 wins 3 secs and 5 3rds one fell and unseated.
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Not to knock the horse, brendan, but this record falls a long way short of "exemplary" in my book. It's good, no doubt, but lets not crack him up to be something he isn't.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I took 25/1 Beer Goggles for the Stayers' Hurdle. I don't think there was that much of a fluke about his defeat of UNWIMH the other day and it looks like they're definitely going to try their luck with him. If he can improve 5-7lbs again by March, he has to be in the mix. I think his hurdling technique is excellent too.
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I give him a chance but he could well be 25s on the day.Nicholls Canyon has any amount of juice in him at 7/1 -not hard to see him getting a couple of confidence boosters in Ireland before the festival -I see him as a 3/1 shot on the day.UKWIMH had his chance -one for the JP lemmings.
 
Grasshopper said:
Not to knock the horse, brendan, but this record falls a long way short of "exemplary" in my book. It's good, no doubt, but lets not crack him up to be something he isn't.
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Has spent a lot of time being asked to run over a trip short of his best-could see him arriving at the festival on the crest of a wave.
 
Grasshopper said:
Not to knock the horse, brendan, but this record falls a long way short of "exemplary" in my book. It's good, no doubt, but lets not crack him up to be something he isn't.
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Exemplary in his high level consistency but overall I'd give him a very good up to now.

I dont currently see a better horse in this div.. :ninja:
 
Think the division is poor myself, and looking to exploit a possible angle. Will reveal* when I see entries for the Long Walk.:ninja:

* It's not that dark, to be fair.
 
Usually when I look at the card for Cheltenham on Thursday I am massively underwhelmed. Stayers Hurdler ante post is no different.
 
Three moderate handicaps - one of which is for the Bumpton-Trumptons - hold the Thursday card back.

The Ryanair is a great race.

The Stayers is shite when Solwhit isn't running. :ninja:
 
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LUKE said:
I give [Beer Goggles] a chance but he could well be 25s on the day.
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If it was run next week, yes, probably, but there are question marks over so many others I reckon quite a few of them won't be there on the day. And he might come out and win the Cleeve in the meantime :lol:

He could be this year's Cole Harden.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
If it was run next week, yes, probably, but there are question marks over so many others I reckon quite a few of them won't be there on the day. And he might come out and win the Cleeve in the meantime :lol:
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If Yanworth doesn't brush up his jumping and win next time what price he goes back hurdling ?After his win in the Liverpool Hurdle would surely put him in the mix for the Stayers.
 
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I reckon its seriously premature to be writing UKWIMH off. He comes best off at the weights at Newbury, and was beaten by an enterprising ride from Richard Johnson. The pair came clear away from race fit rivals that are good yardsticks. The reason UKWIMH is being writrten off is because people don't rate Beer Goggles, which is a mistake in my opinion, and because he was turned over last year when all of Fry's horses were running like pigs.

I reckon he's a stonking good bet to nothing, and as much as look at the market I don't see any dangers to the big two. Also I don't see that changing unless we maybe see something coming from left field perhaps reverting from chasing.
 
I'm more worried about some emerging inconsistency - and to a lesser extent Harry's age - than I am about the level of his form. Pretty-much the same applies to Nicholls Canyon. Neither of them are bank-options, imo.

Both clearly have a chance still, but I'd be looking for something to take them on with.
 
He's one I'm interested in, tiggers....but not the one I'm interested in.
 
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If I'm reading you right Grassy, you'll pick one of the two as your win bet unless something else emerges, and have something else lined up at a big price each way? If so that's pretty much how I see it. The trouble is I'm struggling to find something at a big price that's floating my boat.

The only one I'm considering taking a left field punt at is Arctic Fire. Mullins doesn't mind throwing a couple of darts at the big races, and I reckon Arctic Fire could thrive for a step up in trip. He'll send Melon to Support Faugheen, and I reckon there's a chance he could send Arctic Fire here with Nichols Canyon.
 
I don't think I'll bet either of the front two, Paul.

I already have Harry in an treble with Faugheen (5/1) and Might Bite (8/1), though I confess I'm not exactly confident that I'll land it, with Harry being the weak-link.

Waiting on one being declared for the Long Walk. If he is in there, I'll most likely back him for the Stayers ahead of his run at Ascot.
 
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