Cheltenham Festival Going Watch

Kauto Abu

Kauto Abu

At the Start
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It actually looks like we may get good/soft ground for this years festival after a soft or heavy start the previous 2 years. Cheltenham, I’m sure, like most places has had it’s fair share of rain over the past few weeks but apart from Sunday and possibly Monday coming the heavy rain seems to disappear from long range forecasts with showers forecast. We know how well it dries out so it should leave plenty of time for the ground staff to have it in top notch. The grass cover there this year appears very generous too as temperatures have been normal allowing growth.

Last year there was heavy volumes of rain and snow in the few weeks leading up to the festival but that doesn’t appear to be the case this year with the BBC forecasting a 20percent chance of showers most days from the middle of next week.

https://www.bbc.com/weather/2653261


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Cheltenham's clerk of the course Simon Claisse said on Friday that the unsettled weather was forecast to continue throughout the next seven days.
"The ground is predominantly soft on the chase and hurdle courses with a little bit of heavy on the intersections and a little bit more heavy on the cross country course," said Claisse.
"The forecast for the next seven days remains unsettled with further spells of rain, and as such that I would envisage still being predominantly soft by the end of next week.
 
You’d expect it to be heavy after the rain due this weekend but then no major rain forecast next week so far, just showers!!

I predict good/soft - soft in places on opening day.


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Almost certainly soft KA. Any prolonged significant rain towards the end of next week may even see some heavy in the description.
 
Snow on Cleeve Hill this morning, had some down here too for about an hour but not lying at all. Sunshine now.
 
Simon Claisse "We had a bit of snow last night and there could be some tonight and into tomorrow, but we will take that OK. We have been soft or heavy ground ever since the Saturday of The Showcase and we disappointingly lost the Friday of The November Meeting, but I am very happy with where we are.

"The forecast is not too troubling. It does continue to be unsettled, wet and windy, but nothing we have not seen before. The total rain in the forecast I have, which is up until Saturday week, is actually less than the total we had in the 24 hours before The November Meeting. I am very happy with the way things are looking beyond Saturday week, as there is a suggestion that it could get milder, although that is a fair way off for any forecaster.
"If I gave a ground assessment today, both chase and hurdle courses I would describe as soft. The cross country is soft, heavy in places, but that is only around the top loop. I am not a gambling man, but I would suspect we will start the meeting on soft ground. I can't remember which year it was, but we kicked off the meeting on soft ground and, come the Friday afternoon, it was quick enough good. It can change quickly here."
 
Maruco said:
Almost certainly soft KA. Any prolonged significant rain towards the end of next week may even see some heavy in the description.
Click to expand...


That’s the thing though, there’s no prolonged rain after next Tuesday. Granted the long range forecast may be unpredictable but all of them are concurring to that fact. Most days have 20% of showers from 4th March on and heading closer to festival week it’s actually looking quite nice so plenty if time for the course to dry.

Long range forecasts are unpredictable But here in Ireland they’ve been forecasting storms 10 days in advance with recently and there’s nothing like that after next Monday for Cheltenham. You’re then looking at a full week with very little rain forecast and I’ve seen it dry out a lot quicker than that.

I’ve a canny knack for gettin this fairly right over the past decade and still think it’ll be closer good/soft than soft.


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Only Thursday, between now and next Tuesday, not showing rain in the forecast.
 
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Going stick this afternoon was 6.2. The Tuesday last year it was 6.0 in the morning so probably softer by the time racing started.
 
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