Cheltenham Festival Going Watch

I'm very confused about the perception of what the going will be tonight....

For the last week it seems to have been drying nicely. No heavy at all in the going description on today's update. No rain at all in Cheltenham today as per DG. The betting on the machine in recent days has almost been 50/50 for soft v good to soft. And in the next 48 hours Forecast there doesn't look to be a drop of rain. (Specifically in Cheltenham - appreciate there may be rain in other places, even near enough by).

Yet watching the Betfair preview just now, there seemed to be a unanimous view that the going was going to be almost bottomless. So much so, Elliott suggested Envoi Allen would now go supreme because of heavy ground.

Checking Betfair just now and the betting is also strongly in favour of soft again at 1.52 and good to soft back out to 4.5.

I'm struggling to see how this very soft/heavy was being considered a cert. Even the week long forecast doesn't look like much rain. Approx 12mm for the next full week... I really thought we were heading for close to good to soft (at least as Cheltenham week goes on).

Very confused right now about the ground.....
 
Double Handful said:
I'm very confused about the perception of what the going will be tonight....

For the last week it seems to have been drying nicely. No heavy at all in the going description on today's update. No rain at all in Cheltenham today as per DG. The betting on the machine in recent days has almost been 50/50 for soft v good to soft. And in the next 48 hours Forecast there doesn't look to be a drop of rain. (Specifically in Cheltenham - appreciate there may be rain in other places, even near enough by).

Yet watching the Betfair preview just now, there seemed to be a unanimous view that the going was going to be almost bottomless. So much so, Elliott suggested Envoi Allen would now go supreme because of heavy ground.

Checking Betfair just now and the betting is also strongly in favour of soft again at 1.52 and good to soft back out to 4.5.

I'm struggling to see how this very soft/heavy was being considered a cert. Even the week long forecast doesn't look like much rain. Approx 12mm for the next full week... I really thought we were heading for close to good to soft (at least as Cheltenham week goes on).

Very confused right now about the ground.....
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It looks now as though there’s a bit more rain Sunday into Monday than originally forecast, maybe 3-4 mls, which would in all likelihood keep it soft but nothing worse.

Elliott is to walk the course Sunday morning but I honestly think all this talk of Envoi Allen going to the Supreme is rubbish, last minute nerves stuff. If you recall it was similar with Samcro and the ground was way worse.




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Double Handful said:
I'm very confused about the perception of what the going will be tonight....

For the last week it seems to have been drying nicely. No heavy at all in the going description on today's update. No rain at all in Cheltenham today as per DG. The betting on the machine in recent days has almost been 50/50 for soft v good to soft. And in the next 48 hours Forecast there doesn't look to be a drop of rain. (Specifically in Cheltenham - appreciate there may be rain in other places, even near enough by).

Yet watching the Betfair preview just now, there seemed to be a unanimous view that the going was going to be almost bottomless. So much so, Elliott suggested Envoi Allen would now go supreme because of heavy ground.

Checking Betfair just now and the betting is also strongly in favour of soft again at 1.52 and good to soft back out to 4.5.

I'm struggling to see how this very soft/heavy was being considered a cert. Even the week long forecast doesn't look like much rain. Approx 12mm for the next full week... I really thought we were heading for close to good to soft (at least as Cheltenham week goes on).

Very confused right now about the ground.....
Click to expand...

I agree with all this.
Elliott referring in the preview to it raining all day in London but it was dry all day at Cheltenham yesterday I believe!
The way I see it is that if forecast correct up to Sunday morning when he walks the track will be no worse than soft.
He initially said would only switch if 'heavy', therefore if he goes supreme with EA he is simply going off/guessing you could say there being alot of rain on the Monday to turn it heavy (having looked at the forecast now, it's no longer heavy rain forecast for Monday).
 
Had a dry mostly sunny day here, pleasantly warm some of the time compared to what's gone before. Local forecast probably dry until Sat evening.
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
Sat AM

Dry overnight, cloudy with a light breeze, sun beginning to break through
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They haven’t updated the going map in a couple of days now so can only assume the last few days has made some bit of difference.


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Claisse said yesterday afternoon if we only get the 10mm rain which is forecast, going will be as now.
 
First of Willie's horseboxes just arrived in the evening sunshine but it's looking unsettled out West.
 
According to @cheltenhamweather on twitter they only got 1.6mm last night which is a lot less than forecast.


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Wet and windy through the night but cleared out now and sun appearing. Blustery showers forecast this morning clearing away to leave a clear night and temperatures down to 1 degree, Rain tomorrow afternoon if forecast to be believed.
 
Forecasting a fair bit of rain tomorrow I see, and then nothing much through the week while we're racing.

Odds on to start soft on Tuesday you'd think. Then soft/good to soft Wednesday, and good to soft both Thursday and Friday.
 
Maruco said:
Forecasting a fair bit of rain tomorrow I see, and then nothing much through the week while we're racing.
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Fair old belt came through during the night, heavy but scattered showers throughout today, then another belt coming through on Tuesday.

Soft definitely in the description!!!
 
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Elliott on Luck On Sunday described the ground as “beautiful, yielding to soft” after walking the track at 7am.



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Kauto Abu said:
Elliott on Luck On Sunday described the ground as “beautiful, yielding to soft” after walking the track at 7am.
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Nick Luck has inferred that Elliott confirmed Envoi for the Ballymore after walking the track this morning. Any explicit confirmation?
 
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