Cheltenham Festival Handicaps - 2016

Noticed Petit Mouchoir not entered in the Martin Pipe, seemed to remember a few on here fancied his chances if targeted at the handicaps. Presume must go for either the supreme or the Neptune.
 
I was one of those Danny.

Roll on Wednesday. The weights are published and we should start getting bookies offers filtering through plus the introduction of NRNB in places.
 
You can work out the weights just now if you want. You can list them by OR at the RP site.

It's too early for me to start thinking about the handicaps as too many can be taken out but I did back John Constable for the County a few days after the Schweppes as he was down to something like 10/1 for Newbury but was still 33s for the County off the same mark.
 
Grasshopper said:
Bet Great Field wherever he appears. Two-from-three in French provinces, purchased by McManus, and now trained by WPM.

This might be one they ultimately keep back for next season as he is only a 5yo, but he could be a live one for the Conditionals Hurdle (also holds County and Coral Cup entries).
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Delighted with that performance. Hopefully one of the 2m handicaps are now in play, as he could do with a lead and a bit of pace on.
 
Grasshopper said:
Now 8/1 fave (B365) for all three Festival races in which he is entered.
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I'll be very surprised if he gets hit with a UK OR of anything under 150 after today in which case he would need to be a 160+ animal to win any of the festival handicaps.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'll be very surprised if he gets hit with a UK OR of anything under 150 after today in which case he would need to be a 160+ animal to win any of the festival handicaps.
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He has beaten a 135 animal 4.5L getting 1lb. He has done it very easy, but he still a chance he will get under 150 (very small chance he might even sneak into Pipe's race).

Thanks for pissing on my chips though - much appreciated.
 
Grasshopper said:
He has beaten a 135 animal 4.5L getting 1lb. He has done it very easy, but he still a chance he will get under 150 (very small chance he might even sneak into Pipe's race).

Thanks for pissing on my chips though - much appreciated.
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Wasn't my intention. Just trying to point out how these things work (without patronising).

The 135 animal would be rated something around 141 in the UK and I assume the ease of victory was value for at least 10 lengths.

Maybe they think he's well into the 160s and aren't worried about the hike.
 
Yes.

In the past they didn't but they've been doing so, as far as I know, since Phil Smith took over.

They usually refer to it in their blogs.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Yes.

In the past they didn't but they've been doing so, as far as I know, since Phil Smith took over.

They usually refer to it in their blogs.
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trainers still get annoyed when a horse wins "too far"..aren't they aware that their horse will probably go up even more if horse wins easily with jock motionless

how does handicappaer evaluate ease of win?..do they say how they do it on the blogs?
 
I don't recall any of them going into that kind of detail. They'll usually say something along the lines of, 'I reckon x was value for y lengths and have rated it as such'.

I tend to rate them on what it seems obvious they have in reserve but if I can't be sure I'll usually give it a '+' or a '++'.

For example, I'll be rating yesterday's Eider winner value for 15 lengths. He was at least 12 lengths in front and going away at the last but took the fence by the roots and lost momentum. I'm just not sure what he was doing close to the line. It looked as if he might have been pulling himself up or maybe the young jockey got unbalanced in his excitement.

Sometimes they go 20 lengths clear and are then eased down. Again, that makes it easier to quantify.

If something canters to the front hard held and is then asked to win by as little as possible, it is much harder to quantify. I remember Valiramix winning en route to the CH. It hacked up but I never saw the race. I asked on here what did it have in reserve and BrianH replied that it was at least 20. Brian is a sound judge so I took him at his word and rated it accordingly.
 
Are we now agreed then that the UK and Irish handicappers operate to different marks, and that there is no commonality between them until they produce their end-of-season Classification?

Handicap weights should be announced soon enough - I will have an idea about the fate of my bets then. Regardless of what rating Great Field is given, I'm well ahead on price, and have plenty of wiggle-room.
 
Grasshopper said:
Are we now agreed then that the UK and Irish handicappers operate to different marks, and that there is no commonality between them until they produce their end-of-season Classification?
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Yes and no.

Yes, by and large they do.

No, for the better races (ratings about 150 and above) the Irish & UK handicappers (the people, not the horses) consult with each other and agree a figure.
 
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No idea what that is supposed to mean, DO.

Either the Irish hcap mark is the same as the UK, or it isn't.....or are you suggesting that it is a combined-mark beyond a certain rating? If so, where is the evidence for this?
 
It is always in that way
in general irish horses use to carry between 3 and 7 pounds more than their irish OR
 
If that is the case, suny, then the Irish and UK marks cannot be a joint-effort.....they must be separate.
 
It's as I said, GH.

In general they work independently but once an Irish horse starts getting to the 150+ stage the officials consult with each other and agree a rating. I've always presumed that was because it's at that kind of figure that they're starting to think of going for the graded UK races.

The evidence is in the blogs and other written articles by the handicappers. Plus if you check back through the likes of the Irish horses that run at the likes of the Open meeting, you'll see the difference in the ORs in their form details.
 
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