Cheltenham Festival Handicaps 2018

My curiosity has been pricked...

I decided to check The Fellow for historical (hysterical?) purposes.

His peak French OR equates to 205.

His highest UK OR was when trying to defy 176 in the 1992 Hennessy. The runner-up that year was Jodami, to whom TF was conceding 25lbs. The Fellow won the King George next time out. Jodami won his remaining four races that season, culminating in the Gold Cup, for which he went up to 175 with The Fellow (5/4f) beaten almost 10 lengths. The following year, The Fellow defied a falling OR by regaining the Gold Cup from Jodami.

Aye... them were the days....
 
I've just watched the 2017 Ultima a couple more times.

I may have said already but the more I watch that race the more convinced I am that Singlefarmpayment only has to turn up in the same form as last year to win.

UTPT won the race defying top weight and a 7lbs rise from the previous year. Singlefarmpayment will be among the bottom weights and is only 3lbs higher. And I haven't forgotten that last time out his price collapsed when he was taking on Definitly Red, American and BDM at seriously disadvantageous terms compared to their official marks. If that money was genuine (and not a bookies' manoeuvre) and if he was seriously expected to give those Gold Cup horses a run for their money he must be a blot off 145.
 
SFP is one I have backed but I am a little concerned that he would be better suited by good ground rather than that which will prevail on Tuesday.
 
I'm on SFP not for a great deal but I have no other concerns other than his jumping if he jumps like he has the last twice then he can be as much of a blot as he likes but he'll end up being a blot on the floor. If he jumps then its hard to see him out of the 4 but wouldn't be surprised if he finds one or two too good for him again. Yet to decide which one or two they are as yet.
 
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Trainer said the other week the he's been crying out for some decent ground with that one. Whether that's a plausible excuse for him I haven't really checked but he may be **** out of luck on that score anyway.
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
I'd go steady with SFP, there are still conflicting reports round here about his participation
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From a preview night recently....

Ultima Handicap Chase
This race wasn't covered but the Owner of SINGLEFARMPAYMENT was in the audience. I spoke to him after and he confirmed that the horse was once again being sent for a crack at the race having been beaten on a photo last time out. He's had a stop start campaign and had a few issue's but is in cracking form right now.
 
Grasshopper said:
My selections so far:

Ultima: Go Conquer
I'm actually very, very sweet on his chances, despite him being beaten in this last year, and being significantly worse off with SFP. I just think he is an improved animal this season, and felt he was given a hugely sympathetic ride in the old RP Chase at Kempton on Saturday. He jumps great (fall at Ascot two runs back was just unlucky), it's a race where you want to be prominent, and whilst the trainer is generally useless, he knows how to get one ready for this race. Soft ground is a mild concern, but regardless, I figure 25/1 is a great each-way price.


Close Brothers: Tree Of Liberty
Typically wide-open event, and therefore hard to be too dogmatic about many of them, but this one is at least guaranteed a run, should Kerry Lee consent to let him take his chance. TOL has been plying his trade at the minimum trip in chases to-date, and I think it is noteworthy that connections have forgone all other Festival options with the horse, and that this is his sole entry over 2m4f. He has hacked-up in two moderate races, which sandwiched his only 'disappointing' run, when he was comfortably despatched by Arkle third-fave Saint Calvados at Newbury - an outing which looks a great deal rosier now, given the exploits of SC in the Kingmaker. With no risk of Tree Of Life being re-directed to another race, and with him having fair 2m4f in the bag over hurdles (beat Burbank as a novice), I'm hoping this one can comfortably out-run odds of 25/1 (Sky, Sportsbook - as low as 12/1 in places).
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Neither declared! :lol:
 
Both NRNB, so no damage done. Neither had an alternative engagement.

Not exactly a good start though! :lol:
 
FWIW my shortlist just got a great deal shorter too. Which on one hand is a good thing but when four of the remaining five are the front four in the market it makes you feel like you've wasted your time.

No longer a handicap so off topic but the NH chase cut up a fair bit too and very unhappy to see Elegant Escape not declared.
 
Marble said:
Fair enough, can you find that quote for me Danny if you can mate please. Cheers
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I've had a look Marb but couldn't find the one I'd read. I found previous articles that referred to a preference for better ground but on having a scan through his form he's got got plenty of form on everything through from good to heavy so I think he'd be fine on anything.
 
Elegant Escape has a good ew chance in the RSA in my book. Not all that surprised they are going that route.
 
I don't disagree Ardross but I'm already heavily into Percy for the RSA and I thought Elegant Escape had 4 miler written all over him.
 
Digger said:
Based on the Kelso race he is surely not good enough....but who knows
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Aye, but if he'd won that race where he was giving a lot of weight away to Big River it'd have ruined his handicap mark good style. He ran three times between January/February, (six times this season in total), so while his race fitness for next week is not in question, he probably ran a bit flat at Kelso.

His Cheltenham record can't all be fluke. The cheekpieces (or tongue tie) have been used the last three times and new trainer Richard Hobson can get another big run out of Shantou Flyer. I check oddschecker daily. He keeps shortening incrementely each day for Tuesday. There won't be any 33's by Friday at this rate!

I can't guarantee he'll win as that would be delusional, but he'll go the gallop, is durable on different goings, (which must be a positive), and will be staying on when others are probably going backwards, so therefore he looks each way value at a very big price. It'll be interesting to see if connections put a claimer on board to take off some valuable weight as well.
 
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