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Cheltenham Festival Record: The Good, The Average & The Ugly

Grasshopper

Grasshopper

Senior Jockey
Joined
Nov 14, 2006
Messages
16,014
Was somewhat idle last night, and decided to take a look back through my record in the Festival races over the years since I started following racing (1992). It started as an exercise to alleviate the boredom, but is probably going to develop into a staking-plan, as the results were quite illuminating.

Here’s how it breaks down for me:

Good Record

Supreme Novices
Arkle
Champion Hurdle
Ballymore
Champion Chase
Ryanair Chase
Stayers Hurdle
Triumph Hurdle
County Hurdle


Average Record

Mares Hurdle
Fred Winter
Brown Advisory
Coral Cup
Champion Bumper
Turners
Albert Bartlett
Gold Cup
Foxhunter


Ugly Record
Ultima Chase
NH Chase
Cross Country Chase
Grand Annual Chase
Pertemps Final
Plate
Kim Muir
Martin Pipe

Mares Novice and Chase ignored as I have rarely had a bet in them, and the sample size really too small.

The above tells me that I need to load more of my Festival tank into the G1 events, and reduce my stakes in the handicaps - particularly the chases. Either that, or I need to start splitting stakes more in the handicaps, rather than rowing-in with one selection (I occassionally have two bets in the handicaps, but never more than that).

Apologies if this comes across as naval-gazing, but I’m seriously bored out my jugs here. :thumbsup:
 
Last edited:
Good analysis, grassy, that I suppose we should all undertake. Bit surprised not to see Gold Cup in the top tier.
 
barjon said:
Good analysis, grassy, that I suppose we should all undertake. Bit surprised not to see Gold Cup in the top tier.
Click to expand...

Jumped off Jodami last minute, jumped off Imperial Call last minute, Dorans Pride placed two years on the bounce, spent too long waiting for Beef or Salmon to turn up (!), Might Bite outstayed, jumped onto Al Boum Photo a year too late.

My GC record was a disaster early on. Had to wait until Looks Like Trouble before I actually nailed the winner.
 
Nice breakdown, Grassy. I’ve taken more risks over the past few years, as my staking plan has increased. This means I have enjoyed decent success in the handicaps, particularly, in the Grand Annual where I have found many of the winners at odds between 8/1 - 66/1. From a “studying of the raw form” angle, I’d prefer plenty of more winners from the ‘Big 4’; but it’s the handicaps that have paid for the week’s betting more recently.
 
without checking back id say ive definitely done well on

Ballymore (easily the best race for me)
Arkle
Triumph

below would class as hit and miss

Supreme
Champion Hurdle
Ryanair
Turners
National Hunt
Cross Country
Bumper

below not so good

Most of the Handicaps :lol:
Stayers
Gold Cup
Foxhunters
 
The Tuesday in general (with the exception of the Boodles) has been by far the “Good” with the Ultima my most successful and the Supreme & Arkle next best.

Historically I’ve tended to spend far too much effort nailing the Tuesday winners in advance, as that’s the day I’ve typically attended and then find I’m trying to pick the winner of the Coral Cup, Grand Annual etc with a raging hangover
 
The best races for me would be the Gold Cup, Ryanair and Supreme but honestly I tend to be streaky and I actually have backed the winner of the Champion Hurdle the most times but only found the winner of that race once in the last decade. Ante-Post value can change year on year and the last couple of Festivals I've found the biggest edge in the Mares Chase which is obviously brand new relatively speaking.

The Handicaps have always troubled me. Flat and Jumps I tend to specialise in smaller field events where my sweet spot price wise is the 4/1 to 8/1 range and so big field competitive handicaps (I feel the same about Royal Ascot) aren't really my bag and I tend to turn into a pussy when betting them. So the winners I've had - The Storyteller in the Plate at 14s, Le Prezien in the GA at 16s, Any Second Now in the Kim Muir at 10s have all been micro staked in comparison to the bets placed those years in the graded races and they've all been each way which is a waste. Probably the only time I've ever gone proper into one for a Festival handicap was Singlefarmpayment in the Ultima. I may have PTSD.

Funny thing is I don't bet handicap hurdles as a rule and Top Cees is my only winner of a Festival race in that sphere but Filey Bay was so eye-catching in the Newbury race last week he may end up being my Cheltenham NAP in the County.
 
Gold Cup -in 3 successive years Carvills Hill at 10/1started at even money -broke my heart.Cherrykino each way ante post at 100/1 and on the day at 33/1-also had it in multiples with the Stayers Hurdle winner at 25/1-fell early on and was destroyed -didn't back a horse for weeks after.Barton Bank 250/1 for the Charlie Hall/Gold Cup double-was 4/1 favourite when he broke a blood vessel on the gallop 2 weeks before the race and declared a nonrunner.
Against that Dawn Run in a pound double ante post with See You Then -as a 16 year old I thought I had the game by the balls.
Five minutes after Best Mate won his second Gold CupI had my max on him winning the next year at 7/2.
Most importantly of all Minella Indo who paid for my daughters First year in University.
 
Mines is very restricted because unless I am having 2.50p EW on I very very seldom back in handicaps.
Supreme: 10 winner
The Arkle: 12 winers
Champion Hurdle 20 winners
Ballymore 3 Winners
Champion Chase 22 Winners
Ryanair Chase 3 Winners
Stayers Hurdle 6 winners
Triumph Hurdle 21 Winners..Including Royal Epic and Solar Cloud got 66/1 both :0)
County Hurdle 2 Winners
Coral Cup 2 Winners
Gold Cup 15 Winners

Not exactly a great record since 1966 as far as winners go but I can still eat mince and tatties so not skint yet
1999 to 2005 I bet very little as most racing was blocked here during those years,
 
Best for me is without a doubt the QMCC followed by the Gold Cup, Triumph, and Ryanair

Had a terrible record in the Supreme, Champion Hurdle, RSA, and Stayers in the 90s but it’s been a fair bit better more recently

Good in the Albert Bartlett and Ballymore except the last few years and a bit worse than average in the Arkle and Mares

Poor in handicaps except maybe the Pertemps


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
One good day pays for the week with me.
I leave heart rule head usually but stakes are so small it matters little up or down.
That said when it works out and I manage to be on it is very , very sweet.
Foxhunters would have been by far my best race had Willie Twiston Davies and Jane Mangan not fallen off and had I included It Came To Pass the year he won at 66/1.
Boodles Hurdle surprisingly good for me through the years.
 
Don't have individual records to hand, but if memory serves me correct Tuesday has always been the most profitable day, both when a 3 day festival and four day. The new Friday would be the next best.
 
I think my 80/1 bet on Sublimity in the Ch H has paid for all of my losing bets since*. Backed it ante post when it was tipped up on good old Ceefax. *of which there have been many…l
 
I am rather morev selective than many on here and rarely bet on handicaps

The novice races are a different kettle of fish

Albert Bartlett and RSA are two races where for sure my record is iffy but the other 4 is above average

My biggest ever festival winner was the crackpot Labaik
 

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