Cheltenham Festival: Tuesday Races

Grasshopper

Grasshopper

Senior Jockey
Joined
Nov 14, 2006
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For general chat not covered by specific race threads.


Ballyburn is drifting slightly for the Supreme and shortening slightly for the Baring Bingham.....so somewhat the reverse of what's happened over the last 48hrs. Classic Willie bingo.

I have a nice position around Il Etait Temps in the Arkle, and whilst I wouldn't be confident, I'm not buying the general line they're throwing around in the previews that he's totally disappointed in his Cheltenham appearances. He was fifth in both the Triumph and Supreme, and I think he's improved for jumping fences. That said, the race does look wide open, and I probably wouldn't get involved at current prices, much as I like the horse.

I've had three haymakers in the Ultima, based on a theory (which was underlined by Matt Tombs on the Matchbook preview), that you want a strong stayer/finisher that's held-up off the pace. That's led me to have small bets on Le Milos at 118 - though that price might be influenced somewhat by a Pertemps entry - and Kittys Light (85 - sole Festival entry) - though neither are in what you would call good form. My main bet here is Victtorino at 41, who should easily get a run from Number 27 and who goes for a yard that know how to handicap them for the Festival. I'm not particularly worried about the run down the field behind Ga Law on the New Course, as the trip was far too short, and he's won left-handed round Auteuil.

In the Boodles, I've had a go at Cossack Chach (25) who really shouldn't be twice the price of Wodhooh based on their race at Down Royal in November. He did disappoint slightly over Christmas though.

Like several others on here, I've been keen on the chances of Salvador Ziggy for a while, though my confidence (for what it was) is ebbing slightly, for reasons I can't quite put my finger on.

Champion Hurdle and Mares are basically sewn-up on day one.
 
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Given that the NH Chase is being run in memory of Maureen Mullins, you'd imagine that Willie and Patrick will be even keener for victory than normal. Of course, Emmet might have a say as well.
 
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Fairly ambivalent re Ballyburn. I have him for both races and whould prefer the Supreme slightly because the longer race fucks my Slade Steel position. But then again I have a little Firefox for the Supreme. Sans Ballyburn the race is wide open and I'd be tempted to place lay Tullyhill.

Arkle wise I'm happy with Quilixius and JPR One. Short as Marine Nationale is he is a Festival winner and I do think some of those just in behind him like Found a Fifty and Hunter's Yawn are worse value. I can see me putting him in a multi or two.

I have the two Bailey horses in the Ultima but it's a hard race. The Mullins fav is a pure hype job.

Mares I've likely done my money with Magical Zoe and Brandy Love (who I couldn't resist at huge prices on the machine). I don't see the trip as an issue for Lossiemouth given the nature of the old track compared to the new. She has a class edge.
 
Supreme : Assuming Ballyburn goes Wednesday (50/50 I'd say) I like Jeriko Du Reponet. I get that he hasn't posted any high numbers but the races haven't been run to suit and I like how he's been strong through the line and I think the form of the Rossington Main is better than people are giving it credit for.

Arkle : Marine Nationale did me a massive favour in the Supreme last year and I was quite happy with the Leopardstown run as it made him a backable price. His run there coming to the last reminded me slightly of how he was pushed approaching the last in the Supreme but whereas he jumped that cleanly at Cheltenham and careered away, he completely fluffed it at the DRF which put paid to any chance and MoS didn't give him a hard time thereafter. The ground looks like it'll be perfect and it's a weak renewal.

Ultima : Like Euro, I'm on both Bailey horses and if the ground were soft I'd be keen on Libberty Hunter but Williams has said he won't run if it isn't. On decent ground I like Theatre Man too. Soft he's unlikely to run and will 100% go Plate.

Mares : I had a great position on Gala Marceau but I'm hoping for a huge upturn in form and the favourite to under perform. Both unlikely.

Boodles : Both Batman Girac and Ndaawi were entered in British races within the past two months, neither of which they were going to take up but their marks of 133 and 134 were all Mullins and Elliott needed to see. I simply do not get the price of Lark in the Mornin and I'd have Batman Girac and Ndaawi vying for favouritism.

NH Chase : I have double figures about Salvador Ziggy and a fairly substantial return on Corbetts Cross as a saver (not so keen on his jumping) so I'm happy, especially as I think there'll be single figure runners but the exchange is suggesting Broadway Boy could be heading here instead of the grade 1 and Embassy Gardens is going to be off for his life since they've announced the race will be named after Maureen.
 
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Marb said:
Holy ****.

JPR One just wins.
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He was about 50s at one stage for the Arkle during the winter especially before Marine's defeat in Ireland. I was considering chucking a tenner each way at him, but I honestly thought JPR was destined for the Grand Annual.

I wish I had a crystal ball sometimes.
 
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I said earlier today I didn't realise how many times I had backed Marine Nationale which turns out to be 7 times in doubles ect and was worried me so in on sense thanks to NRNB I'm ok but I did have a ton on him on the exchange so that's not the start I was hoping for.
 
Ballyburn in the Supreme would be a nice recovery for me as I have him:-

Ballyburn | Marine Nationale | State Man without CH | Lossiemouth | El Fabiolo NRNB

Ballyburn | Marine Nationale | Lossiemouth | Brighterdaysahead NRNB

Ballyburn | Marine Nationale NRNB
 
Anyone know hat happens with this bet I had? Constitution Hill & Sir Gino Both To Win At Cheltenham By 5 Lengths Or More
 
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I backed Stateman at 1/2 which surely is a steering job now. I doubt if Rich will switch Lossiemouth if he does my bet below wont be worth having

I did a 20 quid sixfold at 26/1 but now that 2 MN and CH are NR's I am left with Lossiemouth | El Fabiolo | Sir Gino | Galopin Des Champs which will be not much of a return if Lossie switches.

Ever wish you hadn't bothered with Ante-post?
 
Think you need to check the individual bookmaker rules for the CH/Gino distance bet. It’s basically a special, so might not fall under NRNB/NRMB.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Ballyburn currently available to back at 4.0 for £41 with 2.74 being offered for Wednesday.
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think thats still guesswork at this point rather than anyone knowing anything. was a big move on mystical power for the wednesday race the other day that's since cooled. if anything i think people maybe looking at a fairly dry forecast this week and drawing conclusions.
 
Almost certainly, JamesRB. Just posting the movement, in case anyone has a position that finds it useful (probably not!).

:cool:
 
Ballyburn odds on for both races except on the machine where you can get 14/5 for the Supreme.

The entire panel on unibet said Supreme so damned if I know where he will run but if he runs on wed with the first 3 favourites out what a fuckin start.........complete mess

Never forger there's beeter than him been turned over Dunguib the unbeaable for example......so hold on to your nuts this could be a rocky ride
 
Huge drift and yet he hasn't the courtesy to let people know while his punters in the know get rich by backing and laying the horse

If that was me and I laid him at short odds for the 20K in the supreme the Betfair FBI would be crawling all over my ass.

You can bet most of the money can be traced back to the yard one way or another

Not talking through my pocket here as i am NRNB on every time I have him.

It's just so annoying ....people talk about Nicky..how laughable is that at least he tells us the time of day
 
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Ballyburn now 5.4 versus 2.06 to three figures both ways, and Mystical Power now shortened right up too.

No surprise if those figures are upside down and back to front in 48hrs time.
 
Tanlic said:
It's just so annoying ....people talk about Nicky..how laughable is that at least he tells us the time of day
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To be fair to Mullins, he has about 20+ high-class novices to figure out running plans for across the three novice hurdles. Nicky has about three, so not sure it's an apples-for-apples comparison.
 
I've done Karia des blaises 33/1 for the boodles Fred winter.

33/1. W.Mullins.
 
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