Cheltenham Festival: Wednesday Races

nickf88 said:
I’d argue that the better Irish trainers try their good horses in graded races and the ones who maybe aren’t up to it that season are primed for a festival handicap, example being Galopin des Champs a few seasons ago. I stand to be corrected but I don’t remember an Irish festival winner, in this country especially, winning with form figures as poor as Langer Dan’s this season?
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Hippolito, disqualified winner of County Hurdle 1979.
Backed at all odds to 20/1.( As a novice fell at the last at Leopardstown when upsides Golden Cygnet, of all horses )
Sire du Berlais ' second Pertemps hurdle.
Came from last place at final bend Leopardstown to finish seventh so they had to take him to Warwick to qualify.
Roadway ( Ml Morris) County Hurdle 1982 .
Tommy Carberry's last Festival ride ; clipped last hurdle when third to Path Of Peace and Prince Of Bermuda; Mouse quoted as saying he could have retired but for that mistake.
 
Flagship uberalles said:
Makes the game easy as we should nearly all know he's at it and had at least a saver on
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Racing Post have got as near as they can In race report: LANGER DAN, out of sorts before winning this race last year, put a series of below-par runs behind to take the prize again from the same mark, this time in much more convincing fashion. He usually comes to hand at this time of year and remains worth a try over 3m but his record suggests he wouldn't be certain to back this up next time.
 
Then, as if to rub our noses n it, he magically comes up with Unexpected Party! WTF?

Never won over 2m, last 3 wins over 2m3.5, 2m 3.5, 2m 5f. It makes me laugh when they're interviewed. They never ask what we want to know like "What was all that about?!. An utter, utter surprise! Tell us how your horse has done nothing then turns up and wins this?"

So what do we do? I know, we'll just guess that, although a trainer's horse has done nob-all, we'll take a flying leap and back him here in the hope that all those other runs were cheating? Well, of course.
Best way to the poor house, really. Haha

I tell you, I could've stared at the Grand Annual until the day I died and I would never, never, never have backed Surprise Party.
 
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edgt said:
No less a figure than Paddy Mullins used say if you want to win a big pot you should be prepared to leave little pots after you.
Langer Dan has run at 4 Festivals;
second to Galopin in Martin Pipe
b/d the following year when favourite.
Two Coral Cup wins.
What is not to like ffs ?
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Correct.

The amount of fcuking drivel.
 
Maybe so.
But the horse ran poorly it’s last three starts, completely unfancied at odds of 66-1, 40-1 and 40-1. With “lesser” jockeys on too, it is noted. The last start he bled.
Then two months later he pops up “at his favourite track” and wins easier than last year having miraculously recovered from the ulcers that have ailed him all season (yes of course there is treatment available...can’t remember what the withdrawal period is and to be honest in my experience it usually takes longer to treat than two months but happy to stand corrected if they have found a wonder cure).
We are not referring to his liking of the track, but instead the methods used to get him back to a winning mark.

At least it will pay his trainers recent fine by the BHA for the George Gently case....:whistle:
 
I'm not sure I agree, granger.

The Irish ratings are higher over here because the data are saying the Irish ratings are too low. It's only once we get to the better horses (150-ish plus) that the two authorities get their heads together and agree a rating.

Another anomaly I've noticed is that when our hurdler go over fences they carry their rating across, at least to start with. That doesn't seem to happen in Ireland where a - say - 135 rated hurdler can start out in novice chases with no rating so they can run in the weakest of the weak races and earn a chase rating in the low 100s.

As I've said many times, my own figures suggest that, on a ball-park basis, chase ratings are about 10lbs higher than hurdles ones so those horses could find themselves in a position to exploit the system.

Another anomaly is when an Irish horse earns a high chase rating compared with its hurdling mark no allowance for that improvement is factored into its return to hurdling, so Total Recall, for example, which had gone up to 155 from 147 for winning the Newbury Hennessy, could then return to hurdling off 125 next time out in Ireland and win an £80k handicap.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm not sure I agree, granger.

The Irish ratings are higher over here because the data are saying the Irish ratings are too low. It's only once we get to the better horses (150-ish plus) that the two authorities get their heads together and agree a rating.

Another anomaly I've noticed is that when our hurdler go over fences they carry their rating across, at least to start with. That doesn't seem to happen in Ireland where a - say - 135 rated hurdler can start out in novice chases with no rating so they can run in the weakest of the weak races and earn a chase rating in the low 100s.

As I've said many times, my own figures suggest that, on a ball-park basis, chase ratings are about 10lbs higher than hurdles ones so those horses could find themselves in a position to exploit the system.

Another anomaly is when an Irish horse earns a high chase rating compared with its hurdling mark no allowance for that improvement is factored into its return to hurdling, so Total Recall, for example, which had gone up to 155 from 147 for winning the Newbury Hennessy, could then return to hurdling off 125 next time out in Ireland and win an £80k handicap.
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I appreciate your response Mo but I think the UK handicapper was excessive with its rating nature of this one and would appear to be playing the role of quickly dropping some UK horses as well as allowing for the Irish tax.

Also, it's not like the Skelton's try hide it with this one, so I'm not sure when the handicapper reviews, to get his renewed ratings on the horse post race.

Yes, I was in shanbally at 25 and did think he was going to do it
 
Btw Ballyburn strikes me as the most exciting novice to come from Ireland in a while. Usually it's Nicky who has a superstar look levels above.

I heard it mentioned and I like it too, that this is the horse to try emulate Dawn Run with for Willie.
 
Yes, I was in shanbally at 25 and did think he was going to do it[/QUOTE]

I almost backed it in running.i thought he was going the best.
 
enjoyable day on course. ballyburn majestic, even if he beat very little. fact to file jumped super and won easily enough. another great prospect. champ chase was a bit of an anti climax but fair play to the hdb/rb combo.
 
Just seen some footage of a mass brawl that kicked off after racing today. The young team all dressed up in their three piece suits bare knuckling like animals. Lovely.
 
Have you not worked out every one is on the gravy train yet???
There is nothing but contempt from top to bottom. Someone tell me different.
 
granger said:
I appreciate your response Mo but I think the UK handicapper was excessive with its rating nature of this one and would appear to be playing the role of quickly dropping some UK horses as well as allowing for the Irish tax.

Also, it's not like the Skelton's try hide it with this one, so I'm not sure when the handicapper reviews, to get his renewed ratings on the horse post race.
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There is no doubt that inconsistencies exist but I regularly read articles on racing sites and in the racing papers about the handicapper being slow to drop horses yet he did seem very quick to drop LD. The Irish handicapper seems more willing, generally, to drop them after a bad run.

Skelton seems to read the handicapper well, or maybe he's constantly narking him on the phone. When I saw LD running down the park I really thought it was part of a two-year plan to get his mark back down but he managed it in four runs. Gotta admire that :lol:
 
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Last year, Langer Dan won by a head and was raised 6lb. Coming back down 6lb after 4 races is not a huge drop.

Going all the way back to the Ramsdens (and before), we have had trainers and owners like Prescott, Martin, Byrnes, Curley and JP who have achieved huge coups. Seems to me that they're geniuses if you followed the money or cheats if you didn't.
 
archie said:
Last year, Langer Dan won by a head and was raised 6lb. Coming back down 6lb after 4 races is not a huge drop.
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Fair point, archie. I had it in my head that it was more, probably because I always rate the race so strongly.
 
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simmo said:
Just seen some footage of a mass brawl that kicked off after racing today. The young team all dressed up in their three piece suits bare knuckling like animals. Lovely.
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I've seen a video circulating on social media too, also was sent it by a relative.

It was from Ascot 3 years ago!

I'm sure there were plenty of of brawls at Cheltenham last week, alcohol and the bugle are the recipe for them.
 
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