Cheltenham Going

Kauto Abu

Kauto Abu

At the Start
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Just a thread to keep updated on the ground and weather conditions in the last few weeks leading up to the festival. A lot of horses chances will hinge on what mother nature brings to the area. Diamond Geezer did Storm Dorris last week bring any rain at all to Cheltenham? Any idea on the current state of play on course?

I know here in Ireland it was mainly wind but this morning Dorris's big brother Ewan is bringing a mixture of wind and rain with snow flurries promised later. Looks like Cheltenham is promised much of the same.


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30mm of rain forecast this week according to ITV Racing

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That's what it'll be declared by Claisse regardless. We'll know after the Supreme what the real going will be.


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30ml at this stage is nothing. Two or three dry days would nullify it.

Hopefully it will have the CoC thinking twice about watering.
 
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If you trust the long range stuff the week after looks fairly unsettled too with up to 40mm forecast & rain in the days leading up to the Tuesday. Slight chance of a frosty night or two also.


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Kauto Abu said:
That's what it'll be declared by Claisse regardless. We'll know after the Supreme what the real going will be.


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Since 2002 it's been Good to Soft eight times, Good five times and Soft twice on the first day
 
Latest statement from Claisse

Ground is mainly good to soft at the moment.
"The winter has been volatile," said Simon Claisse.
"What happens beyond Saturday week is anyone's guess.
"What fills me with uncertainty is how inaccurate the forecasts have been of late."
At the monent, unsettled weather looks like it will continue
 
Once it rains enough to prevent watering, not too much to do any harm and is dry for the week we will all be happy !
What amazed over the past few years is how little rain it takes to change the going from Day 3 to Day 4 when it did rain; less than 12mm at the wrong time could change the going completely.
Glad to see good grass cover as the more grass the better the ground takes any moisture.
 
If memory serves, don't they often water on Wednesday, after the ground quickens somewhat on the 2nd day?
 
edgt said:
Once it rains enough to prevent watering, not too much to do any harm and is dry for the week we will all be happy !
What amazed over the past few years is how little rain it takes to change the going from Day 3 to Day 4 when it did rain; less than 12mm at the wrong time could change the going completely.
Glad to see good grass cover as the more grass the better the ground takes any moisture.
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Exactly. They often watered it a week or two before the festival to maintain good/soft ground but then if you get rain during the week it can make it testing. I remember 2 years ago thinking i'd back No More Heroes for the Albert Bartlett. Then Thursday night Friday morning it rained and quite easily we had soft bordering on heavy ground. I remembered Martello Tower slog it out with Outlander at Limerick the previous xmas and changed my mind to back him instead. He won by a neck to Milsean at 20/1!!! Coneygree came into the reckoning big time for the gold cup.

I think this current forecast will stop them watering but we could start of with slower ground and hopefully let it dry out towards the end of the week to perfect jumping ground. The advantage here is that it's natural and you're not messing with the water table of the course.


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They always aim for g/s first day, but it's a well-drained course and dries out fairly quickly without further rain at, that time of the year. In normal circumstances, that often often leads to them adding water to the New course on Wednesday evening.
That's generalising but a safer guide than taking any year in isolation.
 
This report was from yesterday morning. Reckon it'll be soft all over today after all the rain.


The current going across all three tracks at Cheltenham is reported to be Good to Soft with only slight variations in places.

Simon Claisse, Clerk of the Course at Cheltenham said on Wednesday: "I walked the course this morning and it is predominantly Good to Soft on the Tuesday track (Old Course), with maybe a bit of soft her and there.

"The Cross Country Course (used on the Wednesday) is also Good to Soft, with a bit of Good in it.

"The New Course (used on Thursday and Friday) is Good to Soft, with some Soft in it.

The long-range weather forecast between now and the beginning of the Festival in twelve days is suggesting unsettled conditions with the possibility of 20 to 30 millimetres of rain in the area which could make the ground Soft for the start of Cheltenham.




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Frost & Fog is all we need!! Really does look more and more like a slower ground start to the festival tho with this rain forecast into next week.


ITV Racing weather forecaster Lucy Verasamy expects Cheltenham to receive further rain over the coming days and has forecast possibile frost and fog during the festival.

On Wednesday clerk of the course Simon Claisse reported the Old and New courses to be predominantly good to soft with both being soft in places, but he stressed considerable rain is possible up to Saturday week.

Verasamy took a similar view was taken on Thursday, saying: "After a dry winter it has been a wet start to March.


"Cheltenham could see up to another 10mm on Friday, 6mm at the weekend and 3mm on Monday, with smaller, negligible amounts from showers. By the middle of next week it will become drier as pressures builds and turn a little milder, too.

"Come the week of the festival, at this stage there are hints of high pressure that will lead to drier conditions and a chance of colder nights with frost and fog not out of the question."


Claisse, who receives dedicated weather reports from former BBC presenter John Kettley, added: "There has been more uncertainty this year because of the inaccuracy of the weather forecasts. Compared to my other 16 festivals, the forecasts seem to have been so much more inaccurate.

"My comment about John Kettley, who does our forecasting, is he is the least inaccurate, rather than the most accurate, of all the forecasters we follow."


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Any weather forecast beyond five days is straying into Daily Express territory. The ground drains so fantastically well at Cheltenham, that unless it's p1ssing down on the Tuesday, we'll have G/S good.
 
18-19mm of rain has fallen in the area over the past week. Showers of rain, some heavy forecast right through the coming week.


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Just had a friendly word with someone in the office about the going reports not being updated since middle of last week and they will be issuing daily updates on the going as of today.
 
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This was just tweeted! Updated forecast gives rain there for tomorrow night but clear after that. Hope they don't have to start watering to keep good/soft.


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nicked off the Sporting Life

Clerk of the course Simon Claisse does not expect any significant changes to ground conditions with the Cheltenham Festival now just over a week away.The going is currently described as good to soft on the Old Course, which is used on the Tuesday and Wednesday, and good to soft, good in places on the New Course for Thursday and Friday.
Claisse said: "The forecast remains unsettled, with bits and pieces of rain coming in during the course of the next week amounting to somewhere between nine and 11 millimetres.
"I wouldn't expect much change in the going between now and the start of the Festival. For Festival week we're looking at temperatures of around 10C with little bits of rain here and there.
"But as I've said before, the weather has been so volatile this winter and forecasts change every day, so there is uncertainty, but nothing of concern.
"I haven't changed the ground from Sunday, so it's good to soft on the Old Course and good to soft, good in places on the New Course and the cross-country course.

"We're very happy with where we are. The course looks in fantastic shape."
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