Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

To be fair, Tanlic, Holywell was pretty straight-forward to oppose that day.

2m4f is not his trip, and the same race had been used as an off-site gallop for Exotic Dancer years before too.
 
Maybe we are all jumping the gun here and JP might see the Gold Cup as too much of a challenge for CL

The form in the Lexus doesn't look anywhere near good enough albeit LW finished 3rd Plus JP had his fingers burned before on him at Cheltenham no less

Isn't there a chance if he has improved a bit he'll take on Don Cossack and co. a horse CL ran to 1 3/4 lengths then took care of at Punchy?
 
Having just watched the race i can only say I'm surprised he hasn't actually drifted for the GC. He's beaten nothing whilst under no pressure at all and was murder at 75% of the fences. No doubt he'll stay all day but surely the better jumpers will be too far away for him to get involved. Bobs has this wrapped up... :whistle:
 
Frankel said:
Wash your mouth out. I suggest you take a look at the Nicky Richards thread.
I fancied Eduard that day incorrectly. Though I clearly had Holywell trotting up 3rd best.
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I said you couldn't possibly say it with any conviction,

You fancying it to happen and saying it being certain is like black and white.

6lbs doesn't compute to 16¼ lengths let alone 32 lengths in anyones book but you guessed correctly... well done
 
Digger said:
Having just watched the race i can only say I'm surprised he hasn't actually drifted for the GC. He's beaten nothing whilst under no pressure at all and was murder at 75% of the fences. No doubt he'll stay all day but surely the better jumpers will be too far away for him to get involved. Bobs has this wrapped up... :whistle:
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There's also the way he jumped at Aintree on good ground has to be factored in......no doubt the bookies are doing that..he couldn't be faulted that day as far as I can remember...........cleared the last by a mile and was still full of running
 
I think you're applying too much faith in what a jockey can feel from a horse EC.
Not all horses work at home like they will on the track and AP wouldn't have received much today against the opposition..

It's quite probable that there's not much between them so it would be impossible for him to tell, especially given the different circumstances that each has produced their best form in. Therefore, if in doubt he'll stick with JP's horse.

That part is a no brainer and if I was a Holywell supporter it wouldn't put me off - unless he ends up being ridden by bad jock of course.
 
Grasshopper said:
Are you on the crystal-meth again?
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Must be I just backed Ridgeway storm with queay on it

Guys a numpty :lol:

Stewards asked him why didn't you go sooner when your horse stays, He said he was told to hod the horse up...........the stewards asked till when...............he said till the next time he runs at kempton..old ones are the best :)
 
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The way AP appeared to be making sure Holywell never slacked off and kept up a good gallop I thought he would return a half decent time...........Peter Montieth's race was almost 10 seconds faster on average :blink: My granny could have run round Kelso faster.........
 
Can you make a comparison with a race that was run over a distance three furlongs shorter?


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Grasshopper said:
What price CL gets a stone-bruise in three-weeks time and McCoy rides Holywell??

:lol:
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Now who's on crack? :D I think my idea of running him in the Ryanair beats yours hands down.

You me and Frank Berry must get together smoke a few joints and discuss this because obviously Jonjo AP and JP haven't got a clue
 
BennyB said:
Tanlic doing time 'analysis'. I've seen it all now!


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Benny knows how to use an Ipad.........there's hope for the rest of us yet

BTW I only looked as I expected it to be the fastest av time of the day.......I was well wrong
 
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He was racing against poor handicappers so id expect the time to be useless. Horse probably works harder at home on the gallops.
 
len_madeiros said:
EC1? Can you?


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you could do a rough calc using the RP standards

William Money slow 36.10...divide by 23.5f = 1.53 sec slow per fulong

multiply 1.53 by distance of Holywell's race = 1.53x26 = 39.78 slow.

at 3m2f William Money = 39.78 slow compared to Holywell's 45.50 slow

basically a horse of William Money's level today would come out 6 seconds faster at the same trip as Holywell..so timewise Holywell's race is not worth much..think they went steady early didn't they?
 
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EC1 said:
if Holywell was a GC horse..AP would do all he could to get on it.
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I'm not sure I would go that far.

I think if he thinks Holywell has a significantly better chance than Carlingford Lough - which it probably does - I expect he'd talk it through with JP but leave it entirely up to his 'boss'. I honestly don't think JP would stand in his way for a second. McCoy has given him a GC recently with Synchronised and I honestly believe JP would be as thrilled for AP winning the race on Holywell as he would be for himself.

Equally, if JP asks AP to ride his horse, I don't think AP would act with anything other than the most professional dignity.
 
I've just watched the recording of today's race for the first time.

Anyone who questioned his jumping today watched different race from the one I saw.

He was deliberate at the first but although he was a little off-centre at a couple of others he never touched a twig at any fence at all. It was a far better round of jumping than I'd expected.

He also added five lengths to his lead from the last fence to the line despite being eased.

I'd say that was extremely satisfactory.
 
Bit rose-tinted that, DO.

It's true there were no calamitous errors, and he generally jumped OK after being awkward at the first.....but jumping "OK" isn't going to get the job done in a Gold Cup. If he jumps like that at Cheltenham, he will lose ground at every fence, and make his job much harder than it would otherwise be.
 
Digger said:
Having just watched the race i can only say I'm surprised he hasn't actually drifted for the GC. He's beaten nothing whilst under no pressure at all and was murder at 75% of the fences. No doubt he'll stay all day but surely the better jumpers will be too far away for him to get involved. Bobs has this wrapped up... :whistle:
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I think this is the quote I had in mind.

I read that without seeing the race so when I watched it I was looking for a series of the kind of mistakes he made in the handicap last year, despite which he still won.

He was a bit deliberate at the first and screwed at a couple but never lost momentum or, as I said, touched a twig. As the race wore on I kept saying to myself, "Where is this horrendous round of jumping mentioned on the forum?"

It isn't rose-tinted. I'm much more critical than that.

The form also stacks up. His figure for the race will work out in the mid-160s, about the same as last year's fist three. And he did it with a fair degree of comfort. AP was quoted afterwards as saying, "Holywell didn´t get the first fence quite right but he was fine after that. I went on as he´s a better horse when ridden positively and he jumped well and won well. I know just what he is capable of and what his trainer is capable of so he´ll improve again." [RP]

AP, who presumably knows a thing or two about how horses jump: "he jumped well"

Is he being rose-tinted too?
 
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Like I say, if he jumps like that in a Gold Cup, he will need to be a half-stone better than the rest, because he will lose ground at every fence.

AP said he jumped well, but it was in the context of a race where Holywell was able to dictate matters entirely, and where he was so far ahead in class terms, the opposition were never going to be able to put the gun to his head. It will be entirely different in the Gold Cup.

You're not an idiot, DO - you know this to be the case, and I shouldn't need to point it out to you.

I say all this as someone who has backed Holywell for the Gold Cup, and who hasn't written his bet off. But he will need to be much slicker at Cheltenham, if I am going to collect - that much is clear to me, and it should be clear to anyone who has seen yesterday's race.

As for the value of the form, the other three were in a race of their own, and I wouldn't put too much stock in the lbs-per-length margin of victory.......though equally, it doesn't hurt to have hammered them out of sight, without coming out of a canter, and AP gave him a particularly good ride, in terms of getting him match-fit for Cheltenham.

There's reasons to be hopeful, but room for improvement.
 
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