Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

I'm in the Holywell camp as well. Just thought it was worth pointing out that Best Mate was exceptional over his fences. He always gets knocked for the quality of his opposition those 3 years but you can only beat what's put in front of you.
 
Grasshopper said:
All I've been trying to do is point out that his jumping hasn't been tested at Gold Cup level.....and that I'd have wanted to see more fluency about it, in a tin-pot race like the one he ran in yesterday.

Regardless - I hope we both collect.
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Fair enough, Gh, although I viewed his jumping yesterday as fluent enough. It wasn't a great race and he was entitled to win as he did. How many times, too, do jockeys say after racing that a horse will jump better off a stronger pace?

Could it be that the pace of the Gold Cup might bring about the improvement [in his jumping] that people want to see?
 
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I'm already on Bobs Worth Dave, and I'm pretty sure Darren is too. If he runs within half a stone of his best rating he'll win. Last year he wasn't right, and they said they had trouble getting him to the racecourse after the Lexus last season. I suspect Gerraghty was under instruction not to leave his season behind this time around.

I know what people will say about him, but he's no more of a risk than Sprinter Sacre, but I bet some of the same people will trot out the line that he's finished at the game forgetting that for the second year running this is a pretty average Gold Cup!

As for the Holywell jumping debate, Cheltenham's fences are nowhere near the test they used to be, and if anything they're on the soft side, something that isn't lost on the top jocks when they ride it.
 
Dunno how anyone can fancy Bobs Worth when the only horse ever to have won/lost/won the Gold Cup is Kauto Star......and BW wouldn't see which way that legend went in a steeplechase. Agree it's an open renewal, but there have to be better options.
 
You're right Bobs Worth would need binoculars to see Kauto's arse, but the others would be in behind him asking to have a look!

If Bobs is back to his best there aren't better options because the next best eight are in heap in terms of performance, and it's not as good as anything Bobs has put up at the course.

The only one who could be something better is Coneygree and I suspect they'll bottle it and go to the RSA with him anyway.
 
Many Clouds looking more and more like the winner to me

just keeps improving..not been fav for any of 3 runs this season..defies people's expectations each time..think i'm going for this one
 
Diamond Geezer said:
10 yo hasn't won this for over 25 years, can't have Bobs Worth at all
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It's a fair point Roger, but then I can't think of any viable contenders over that time with so few miles on the clock, so if any were to break the trend it could be Bob's Worth.

Don't forget when Mom Mome won the National he broke one of the longest standing trends of all that says French breds can't win because none ever had. Trends are always ultimately broken.
 
I'll also add that if either Kauto or Denman turned up in this years renewal at 10 years old they'd have won by half the track.
 
EC1 said:
Many Clouds looking more and more like the winner to me

just keeps improving..not been fav for any of 3 runs this season..defies people's expectations each time..think i'm going for this one
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Agreed.
 
Unless you want to knock a good half stone off sc's rating at Cheltenham (at the very least. ..bha more) and even if you just take lines through dynastea, he simply has to improve again.

Really like the horse and would be happy to see him win but not for me

Bobs worth is well past his best IMO.
 
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EC1 said:
Many Clouds looking more and more like the winner to me

just keeps improving..not been fav for any of 3 runs this season..defies people's expectations each time..think i'm going for this one
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It has to be said that he was advantaged more than Smad Place with the pace in the Argento. King's grey was quite keen and a faster pace will suit. I personally feel the price differential between the two is excessive (and Smad Place is proven at the Festival and on decent ground as well)
 
I also think Smad will outrun his current odds but he has a massive amount to find with Many Clouds IMO


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Roads to Riches on decent ground looks the answer to the conundrum to me. Holywell three lengths back in second.


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Rtr is main threat to conti I think . very likeable horse, but frankly some of those mentioned above are not in same league. Not every year has a freak finish and whist its not as reliable a race for best horse as kgv its not a race for making cases for decent horses that do not really set the world alight.

The obsession about one out of character run at the course is nicely keeping the price real.
 
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i don't think its an obsession Clive tbh..this isn't a game where you feed the data into a machine and it spews out definate answers...you have to make decisions based on just a few runs many times to find an angle. One persons..it means nowt..is another persons hang your hat on.

Take Sign Of A Victory who runs today..one very bad run on slow ground..could to some people be a blip..to others a tell...its not an obsession ..its just a view based on little data..we know now that the reason for his poor run at kempton was the ground as Jockey+trainer confirmed it..but lets say we didn't know that the sole reason was the ground..we just had his form...would you back him today in a slog after that run at Kempton?...would you put that run down to sticky ground?..or call it a blip?

you do sometimes have to make decisions on just one run..luckily we usually have more than one run..but if you can't make those decisions then i don't think you can have a confident view on virtually any race.. this game is all about confidence if you are betting. Its also about seeing and recognising % "tells".
 
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Yes but you weigh one run against balance if form and performances don't you? It's been discussed plenty but one run with excuses against a good few pounds, ordinary uninspiring opponents and being in the hands of the finest trainer of chases by a mile, is the equation.
 
The career profile of a horse is often the best 'tell' to what caused an outlying run, and as a tool for predicting if or when it's likely to happen in the future.
My take on the above 2 is:
that SOAV is a speed horse and though his Ascot h/c win was in a good (relative) time, the ground was pretty quick, they went no great pace early, and he simply had far too many gears for horses since proven to need further. He didn't get that luxury in the Xmas hurdle (hard to believe the ground was as bad as connections painted) and the searing pace set by Blue Heron had him taken out of his comfort zone a long way before the finish. Should BH repeat the exercise today, I'd bet on him performing similarly.
Silviniaco Conti is - as his trainer pointed out a while ago - "just a galloper", and though reported to be suffering stomach ulcers at the time, holding him up of a moderate early pace in last year's GC was never going to do him any favours. I'd still maintain he was outsped in the closing stages; connections have learned from that, and cheekpieces and more positive tactics are likely to ensure there's no repeat in this season's renewal.
 
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