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Cheltenham Gold Cup

Tanlic said:
It's fine and well saying Paul Townend wasn't happy on Gallopin Des Champs but no matter how you cut it he was simply trounced by a better horse.

There can be no excuses he simply was nowhere near as good as the hype.
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Where would you rank him in the list of Gold Cup winners this century? Who would be your top 5?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Aftertiming of a sort but something of this sort went through my head before the race yesterday.

I was looking at my printout of my figures and thinking about Best Mate who I thought was better than the highest actual rating I could give him of 181 and I kept saying it on here that he was being falsely lauded as the best since Arkle, even after he won the third. He only just beat a handicapper that day.

I reckon the chasers were maybe generally better around then. I had Desert Orchid regularly posting figures higher than Kauto Star ever did and I reckon Kauto was better than Best Mate.

Maybe that's an argument for another thread but the second top [on my figures] yesterday was Banbridge on 168 and he was a doubtful stayer. The next was 165 (Ahoy Senor) and the rest were even lower. That was why I reckoned GDC would hack up.

I was always frustrated that Best Mate got the adulation he did. He was a proper G1 horse and very game but never had proper opposition. It looks like maybe GDC is similar and it's maybe for the best that he didn't win.

If he was going to win the Gold Cup for a third time I wanted him to do it in style but I'm still convinced he was a stone below form yesterday for whatever reason.
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What rating do you think the winner gets?

Half the country would be hailing GdC as Arkle reborn if JP hadn't forked up the money to supplement his horse in.
 
According to the Irish Field today Lecky ran the fastest furlong run by a chaser all week.
Not a slow horse by any means then.
I do hope GdeC comes back to his best form; what caught my eye at Leopardstown was that when he quickened away from the rest his conqueror quickened with him, from further back admittedly but stride for stride matched him for end race speed.
Yesterday's race was 2f further and as Jinny said, he looked trained to the minute just like Tied Cottage and co long ago.
As for top 5; Gold Cup form and overall form figures would give different results.
Galopin has run 5 Festivals, never worse than second and should have 4 wins; take away Punchestown and his record is seriously impressive; not one to write off just yet by a long way.
Pity Fastorslow was missing yesterday, he and Hewick would have made it a proper race on that ground.
Kauto is still the king this century however.
 
Flagship uberalles said:
What rating do you think the winner gets?
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Monty's Star and Gentlemansgame are both rated 160 and were only about a length apart. The winner has beaten them 20L so I'd have him around 175 for that run. He's only 7 and I'd add a p but will he be able to replicate the run in different circumstances?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Monty's Star and Gentlemansgame are both rated 160 and were only about a length apart. The winner has beaten them 20L so I'd have him around 175 for that run. He's only 7 and I'd add a p but will he be able to replicate the run in different circumstances?
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Given the trainers of both horses are known and noted "target" trainers one could easily add a few pounds to their Gold Cup performance, moreover on the faster ground.
That said, I am no mathematician.
 
edgt said:
Given the trainers of both horses are known and noted "target" trainers one could easily add a few pounds to their Gold Cup performance, moreover on the faster ground.
That said, I am no mathematician.
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I'd say give Gentlemansgame's age and the fact he's been on 160 for some time, improvement is unlikely. Monty's is different but he took half the fences with him and will improve past him soon but I would be more inclined to rate the run the other dia via the former.

RPRs have GG running to the same mark as at Aintree (162). That day Ahoy Senor ran to 170 [RPR]. If he had repeated that run he'd have been a clear third and people would be using him to peg back the form.

I also see RPRs are giving GDC 13lbs for beating GG 12 lengths, which is nonsense unless they're allowing some kind of mark-up. 12 lengths is 9lbs.

RPRs have also given the winner 20lbs for 18 lengths over GG. It should be more like 13 or 14. (I'd go with the latter for the manner of victory.)

We'll see what the handicapper does on Tuesday. My money is on 175/176. That would make him no more than an average winner but he's young and entitled to improve another 10lbs into next season if the National doesn't bottom him.
 
Gaz's Way De Solzen said:
RIP Corbetts Cross.

Does anyone think that Galopin maybe left his performance at the DRF? Still think he did amazing to finish 2nd given he never travelled in my opinion.
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He hit the line hard at Christmas and it took a long time to pull him up-I'd say that and the DRF did the damage.
 
O have a huge problem with ratings especially Timeform.
It seems everytime a decent horse come along they plug him as being the next coming.
At one point the have GDC a 180 which I thought was high.
No matter despite the Hype 180 doesn't get him into the top chasers list.
LUKE said:
He hit the line hard at Christmas and it took a long time to pull him up-I'd say that and the DRF did the damage.
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Perfectly possible but the winner didn't just beat him he absolutely trounced him
I reckon his Gold Cup winning days are well and truly over
 
Tanlic said:
O have a huge problem with ratings especially Timeform.
It seems everytime a decent horse come along they plug him as being the next coming.
At one point the have GDC a 180 which I thought was high.
No matter despite the Hype 180 doesn't get him into the top chasers list.
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I've been saying the same for years, Tanlic, which is why I tend to come on here and play devil's advocate in keeping a lid on the hype afforded to so many. The best recent example was probably Best Mate who won three Gold Cups beating next to nothing but was being headlined everywhere as the best since Arkle. There were far better single winners along the way.

I had a look through some of the winners this century at the RP site. It's shocking how poor some of the Gold Cup fields have been, based on RPRs and ORs.

All that said, I've no doubt GDC is a 181 minimum horse and if he'd shown that the other day he would have won. INTWYT is only 7, though, and, as I said earlier, entitled to improve another 10lbs into next season. If he does, he'll overtake GDC and that can only be good for the sport.

It's true you can only beat whatever else turns up so it's almost a matter of luck who gets to be a Gold Cup winner on the day. Had they not supplemented INTWYT, GDC would have won and the racing media - and even some of the non-racing ones - would have been full of it.

(By the way, people forget how good See More Business was on his day, not necessarily in his Gold Cup win, but on his other form, and DO's best from was some way ahead of Kauto Star but the latter could do it where it mattered - in the GC itself.)
 
One of the problems from those compiling the ratings is that they start off from a rating for the race (from a par for it over the years?) On the one hand that’s sensible since the best horses will be running and they are fairly close together across the generations as a herd, on the other hand if you are mug enough to run a relative donkey in the race it will earn a rating that it can never match.

In the long term (very) selective breeding presumably means a gradual improvement across the generations, or is that too fanciful.
 
As successive societies and civilizations have shown all through history, you get to a point where you regress and end up destroying yourselves.

We're starting to go through that right now in the 'developed' world.
 
I’ve always thought the best horse wins the King George but the best horse on the day wins the Gold Cup. I still think that GDC is a remarkable creature, though. Then again, so is Hewick ( in my eyes, anyway).
 
For mine; the going wasappreciably quicker than the official g/s and GDC was outpaced in the closing stages
The racee was run c9 secs quicker than the 23 edition on soft..(officially).
 
Tanlic said:
O have a huge problem with ratings especially Timeform.
It seems everytime a decent horse come along they plug him as being the next coming.
At one point the have GDC a 180 which I thought was high.
No matter despite the Hype 180 doesn't get him into the top chasers list.

Perfectly possible but the winner didn't just beat him he absolutely trounced him
I reckon his Gold Cup winning days are well and truly over
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Think you may come to regret that last setence, Fist.
Never been a fan of NH sectionals,but the winner's figures clearly show this race wasn't the usual stamina test,and GDC may well win another, in more favourable circumstances - and you can take that to the bank.
 
I am not alone in my thinking
From early doors bookies and trainers alike were looking
at the Gold Cup as a foregone conclusion an boy did they get it wrong.
Armed with new insight into Galopin Des Champ's true abilities/weaknesses the are offering 8/1 for the 2026 Gold Cup...sums up his chances IMO
 
tiggers1972 said:
The ground was a massive factor too, think you knew Galopin wasn't his normal self as early as the 2nd fence.
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Not sure about normal self - I don't think there have been any reports so far that there was anything wrong with him . It seemed just that he was less effective on the good to soft ground that was teetering on good . Also perhaps he had been consdiered too much of a certainty due to the Leopardstown wins on softer ground and when nobody took him on at all and he was able to dictate. He seemed just to be beaten by a quicker horse on that ground.
 
I have not had chance to watch a replay of the race, so I don't know if Ahoy Senor fall impeded Galopin in any way ?

However, I doubt whether it made any difference to the result. Over the years I believe, there have been very few horses that have been able to travel at speed, and still get up the Cheltenham Hill. Galopin is one that can, but even he is better suited to 3 miles on soft at Leopardstown.

I also think age is important, with Inothewayurthinkin being a 7 year old, as Galopin was when he first won the Gold Cup. Inothewayurthinkin could go on to win the race, on a number of occasions, providing he can stay injury free.
 
I’m a subscriber to the theory that the win at the DRF took more out of GDC than they had thought.
Also Inothewayurthinkin proved more effective than expected on better ground
 
With no further news from Closutton, it would seem that Willie's early opinion that GDC wasn't letting himself down properly on the good ground is the main factor. This would also affect his normally efficient jumping. He came up against a good horse who was able to act on the ground and if you watch how uncomfortable horse and jockey were on the first circuit, it's a credit to his class and tenacity that he was in a position to challenge at the last.

New ORs are 175 for both horses and GDC's RPR for last week was 8lb lower than his victory last year which suggests that it would have been much closer on soft ground this year.
 


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