Cheltenham Handicap Watch

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Slim

At the Start
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Saturday Lanzarote - Ilikethewayurthinkin

On a mark of 132 in Ireland. One suspects this is a fishing expedition to see what the 'cheating Irish" tax will be from the UK handicapper. I doubt he will run. Hint, 140 won't stop him winning the Martin Pipe. I believe Skybet have him 25/1 in their Request A Bet section. If it is still there take some.

County Hurdle - Elborado Allen

Hiked from 145 to 152 for making the grave mistake of trying in a 15k handicap at Sandown on Saturday. 7lbs for finishing 2nd ends any major chances of winning a handicap hurdle and connections will already have one eye on going chasing. Had he finished 10th on Saturday he would have been some certainty for the Betfair Hurdle.
 
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Is this Slim? As in GOAT Slim?

Good calls. Ilikedwayourthinkin was put up by ‘Upping the anti’ YouTube video guys from the Racing Post.

On Cheltenham handicaps, I’m balls deep in Glenloe for the Kim Muir, and now hammering The Storyteller for the Pertemps.
 
On Glenloe to win any race but 9s for the Kim Muir is fine given he is basically on the winning mark. Irish rating of 135 and likely bumped up to 142-143. He hasn't tried once over fences.

I think the ship had sailed with The Storyteller. The UK handicapper gave him a mark recently, don't have it to hand but it's not all that lenient and he has scope to bring it closer to his chase mark. Gordon Elliot has 4 entered in ths Warick Pertemps qualifer on Sarurday including Sire De Berpais. I bet Tout Est Permis at 20/1 after he qualified at Leopardstown. On an Irish mark of 129 he looks set to get in off bottom weight and would have a favourites chance.
 
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Fair shout with Ilikedwayourthinkin, they have him at 14/1 in the main market (no bigger than 16s elsewhere) and 25/1 Requestabet so I've taken that to the max allowed; which was a whole £10
 
County Hurdle

Is Elixir De Nutz being handicapped for the county? 153 has now become 146. If they could get another couple of lbs drop for getting run over in another graded race he might be on a dangerous mark for a 33/1 shot.
 
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wilsonl said:
Fair shout with Ilikedwayourthinkin, they have him at 14/1 in the main market (no bigger than 16s elsewhere) and 25/1 Requestabet so I've taken that to the max allowed; which was a whole £10
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You'll do well to have a better ante post bet today.
 
The GOAT and BrianH back on the same day. Our cups truly runneth over.

PS..The Storyteller WILL WIN the Pertemps.
 
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The Storyteller could easily win it but sharper lads than me took the 25s and 20s. 8/1 now means you are beholden to the UK handicapper not carrying an extra 1...
 
Elixir du Nutz for the county Slim. Eldorado Allen is a good outside bet for the Champion Hurdle after a pop at the handicap hurdle at Newbury.

I like the way your thinking with Ilikethewayurthinkin.
 
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Maruco said:
Elixir du Nutz for the county Slim. Eldorado Allen is a good outside bet for the Champion Hurdle after a pop at the handicap hurdle at Newbury.

I like the way your thinking with Ilikethewayurthinkin.
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They will have to run off top weight in the Betfair Hurlde now. I considered backing him at 66/1 for the CH before Saturday but concluded he was a fair better bet to win off 145. If it came up soft in the CH he is capable of placing in it. The faster they go in races the better for him.
 
This thread has just frustrated the last of whatever shite I've got left in me out of me.

I can't check up on any of these handicap marks/horses and don't even know if I'll be able to get a bet on at the meeting.

Aintree might be a write-off for me too.

Good luck with all these.
 
Slim said:
County Hurdle

Is Elixir De Nutz being handicapped for the county? 153 has now become 146. If they could get another couple of lbs drop for getting run over in another graded race he might be on a dangerous mark for a 33/1 shot.
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Thought he would have a right chance in the CH. Can't make up my mind whether he has been a non jigger or has some physical problem this season.

Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk
 
Kim Muir - Glenloe
Pertemps - Sire De Berlais/Storyteller
Fred Winter - Ilikedwayurthinkin

Anyone got one more for a handicap lucky 15? No doubt be a Gordon Elliot or McManus plot job.
 
Double J said:
Kim Muir - Glenloe
Pertemps - Sire De Berlais/Storyteller
Fred Winter - Ilikedwayurthinkin

Anyone got one more for a handicap lucky 15? No doubt be a Gordon Elliot or McManus plot job.
Click to expand...

Nothing "plot" about it but at long as Bridgey doesn't get too carried away and enter him for the Gold Cup or blow his mark beforehand (holds entries for the coming weekend), The Conditional is more than capable of running a big race in the Tuesday handicap off 142.

He's still eligible for novices and they were considering the Kim Muir in-between his Cheltenham win and his gallant Hennessy second but he'd carry near top weight in that now and novices have a decent record in the 3 miler.

25/1 for the 3 mile handicap or 16/1 to win any race with 365, which screws your lucky 15 if he goes up against Glenloe in the KM

P.S. Assume you mean martin Pipe for Ilikedwayurthinkin
 
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wilsonl said:
Nothing "plot" about it but at long as Bridgey doesn't get too carried away and enter him for the Gold Cup
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I was looking at the GC entries earlier this afternoon. The Conditional holds the entry but surely he'll go for a handicap?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I was looking at the GC entries earlier this afternoon. The Conditional holds the entry but surely he'll go for a handicap?
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You'd think so wouldn't you Mo but I'd be slightly concerned that the relative success of the The Giant Bolster might go to the trainers head, which would be a mistake because 142 is arguably lenient
 
Double J said:
Kim Muir - Glenloe
Pertemps - Sire De Berlais/Storyteller
Fred Winter - Ilikedwayurthinkin

Anyone got one more for a handicap lucky 15? No doubt be a Gordon Elliot or McManus plot job.
Click to expand...

You obviously mean the Martin Pipe and not the Fred Winter. I would suggest Early Doors on the old 4 miler at a price
 
littlelad said:
Thought he would have a right chance in the CH. Can't make up my mind whether he has been a non jigger or has some physical problem this season.

Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk
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At 33/1 for the County Hurdle you are getting a big enough discount for it not to matter.
 
wilsonl said:
Nothing "plot" about it but at long as Bridgey doesn't get too carried away and enter him for the Gold Cup or blow his mark beforehand (holds entries for the coming weekend), The Conditional is more than capable of running a big race in the Tuesday handicap off 142.

He's still eligible for novices and they were considering the Kim Muir in-between his Cheltenham win and his gallant Hennessy second but he'd carry near top weight in that now and novices have a decent record in the 3 miler.

25/1 for the 3 mile handicap or 16/1 to win any race with 365, which screws your lucky 15 if he goes up against Glenloe in the KM

P.S. Assume you mean martin Pipe for Ilikedwayurthinkin
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Not a definite runner this weekend according to trainer
 
Slim said:
You obviously mean the Martin Pipe and not the Fred Winter. I would suggest Early Doors on the old 4 miler at a price
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Backed it to win any race. Feeling it could end up in the Ultima.

JP looking to top the winning owner charts by having a winner in most handicaps. Glenloe and Ilikedwayurthinkin have got to be all in jobs.

Suprised he doesn’t get much stick with these obvious plot jobs. Also wouldn’t surprise me if they got beat by one of his, with Jonjo O’Neil JR riding one in the red hat third colours.
 
wilsonl said:
You'd think so wouldn't you Mo but I'd be slightly concerned that the relative success of the The Giant Bolster might go to the trainers head, which would be a mistake because 142 is arguably lenient
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That was the one I was trying to remember earlier this afternoon. I knew Bridgewater had one run well previously in Gold Cups. Just checked back through his record. Rated in the 140s when winning a 2m5f Cheltenham Hcap at the end of the January by 17 lengths for which he went up to 160. After that he regularly ran in the 160s.

I wonder if The Conditional is held in similar regard. The entry alone suggests he may be.
 
90% certain according to RP interview with trainer which was posted online about an hour after the post on here. Currently fav and if he wins they’ll no doubt take their chance in the Gold Cup en route to the National.
 
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