Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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Only a minor thing but it's Flash THE Steel
Cheltenham Handicap Watch
- Thread starter Slim
- Start date
Ilikethewayurthinkin now 7/1 best after a big move in the market for him today.
https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/martin-pipe-handicap-hurdle/winner
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Mercy Mercy Me is an excellent bet at 25/1 for the Close Bros Chase with the NRNB concession (Skybet)
He’s entered for the 2.5 novice handicap on Trials day with Cobden seemingly jocked up.
He needs the third run over fences to qualify, having putting in a fairly eye catching performance in a Plumpton bonus race before beating a fairly good horse in Dashing Perk at Sandown in staying on fashion.
Currently rated 133 he’d need to win well to have any chance of going up the necessary 7 to 8 lb to have any chance of qualifying for the festival race.
If that doesn’t happen on Saturday then he won’t qualify for March so you’ll get your money back but if he does produce the required performance then he’s sure to be one of the favs, especially with their current market leader City Island now being aimed at the stayers.
Could also back him at 16/1 NRNB for the plate as a safety net in case he runs well on Saturday but doesn’t go up enough to qualify for the novice race as a 4 or 5 lb hike may sneak him into the Thursday race.
He’s entered for the 2.5 novice handicap on Trials day with Cobden seemingly jocked up.
He needs the third run over fences to qualify, having putting in a fairly eye catching performance in a Plumpton bonus race before beating a fairly good horse in Dashing Perk at Sandown in staying on fashion.
Currently rated 133 he’d need to win well to have any chance of going up the necessary 7 to 8 lb to have any chance of qualifying for the festival race.
If that doesn’t happen on Saturday then he won’t qualify for March so you’ll get your money back but if he does produce the required performance then he’s sure to be one of the favs, especially with their current market leader City Island now being aimed at the stayers.
Could also back him at 16/1 NRNB for the plate as a safety net in case he runs well on Saturday but doesn’t go up enough to qualify for the novice race as a 4 or 5 lb hike may sneak him into the Thursday race.
133 isn't getting into the Plate either.
Agreed but my point is, if he runs well enough on Saturday to warrant a 4 or 5 lb rise to sneak into the bottom of the plate (which he could do with c. 138) or betters that with a 7 or 8lb rise to get into the Novice race then that sort of performance would put him near the head of the market in either race.
And if he doesn’t produce that on Saturday, and his mark stays on 133 then you’ll get your money back from both races as he won’t qualify and it’s NRNB.
It’s a no lose situation, even if you want to hedge out after Saturday.
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Hedge out? Why not just beg on the street for the price of a can of coke and a Twix bar...
If you genuinely think he will be at the head of the betting for a festival handicap on the back of getting a rise on Saturday then you should be smashing the 11/1 with Coral that he wins on Saturday.
I’ve taken it already
Double Handful
At the Start
I've been studying the same race - the 2.5 novice handicap 13:15 Sat at Cheltenham - but there's been a couple of different ones took my eye, with a forward view to the Close Bros. at the festival. Elliot was fishing for UK H'cap marks with more than just Samcro here. Galvin at 20/1 for the Close Bros. interests me.
Then the Fav Imperial Aura has been very much on my radar since he finished 2nd to PYM at Cheltenham over 3 miles in December.
He ran a cracking race before just succumbing to the stamina of Pym. I'd hope the shorter trip is ideal for him.
Currently off OR 136 he needs 4/5 lbs rise himself to be sure of getting into the Close Bros. where he's currently a 25/1 shot for that.
Double Handful
At the Start
Fair point. I'm probably living on past glories as having studied it last year led me to Ben Dundee EW at a big price who got placed.
Suppose just trying to identify early if there's a potential A Plus Tard in there this year!
I think people try too hard to work out things that aren't necessarily the edge they think it will be. That race was 5s the field last year and A Plus Tard thrown in! First time to look at it will be the day before in my opinion.
Entered up in the Matheson Handicap Chase on Feb 1st.
Interesting with a low weight in that.
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The other JP wears a tongue tie after having a wind op. Talk about making sure a horse won't choke...
swedish chef
At the Start
This is the one that interests me, probably needs to win today to guarantee a run in the final at the festival.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I'd have said the same, however I took a good half-hour last night to try and make out what Paul Kealy was suggesting for this weekend in his Weekender article and he advises Imperial Aura at 25/1 (apparently having already tipped it in the RP at 33/1) for the Close Brothers rather than back it this weekend. That's my kind of price so I'm following him in blind (in just about every sense!)
Double Handful
At the Start
Kealy must be reading my posts again........
Last year OR 138 was the lowest to get in to the Close Bros. and it's been a very tight H'Cap range of only 6/7 lbs in recent years.
Imperial Aura OR 136 still needs to go up a few lbs to guarantee getting in, which means he'll have to be trying tomorrow.
By that logic, I thought he was potentially still a bet tomorrow too, although 3/1 is a little bit skinny in a competitive race.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Apologies, DH. I'm unable to follow the threads as closely as I'd like.
Kealy arrives at the same conclusion as you re Saturday - thinks he should/needs to win but reckons the price is skinny. He's anticipating a reduction in price for the CB if/when he wins on Saturday.
Fingers crossed for a result.
Kealy arrives at the same conclusion as you re Saturday - thinks he should/needs to win but reckons the price is skinny. He's anticipating a reduction in price for the CB if/when he wins on Saturday.
Fingers crossed for a result.
You should try and look at Phoenix Way off 133 in the 2.35 Huntingdon today. The form of his last race will your eyes popping out of your head. He is out to 5/1 as the market plays it's favourite games, JP will he won't he.
archie
Senior Jockey
Burbank runs in the Skybet tomorrow off 145.
Finished just ahead of Kemboy in the 2017 Neptune Hurdle, looks to be progressive over fences and acquired by Trevor Hemmings early last year. If he goes well but runs out of steam in the last half mile, he might be of interest in the Close Bros. On the other hand, his season might be all about tomorrow.
Finished just ahead of Kemboy in the 2017 Neptune Hurdle, looks to be progressive over fences and acquired by Trevor Hemmings early last year. If he goes well but runs out of steam in the last half mile, he might be of interest in the Close Bros. On the other hand, his season might be all about tomorrow.
frontrunner
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