Cheltenham Handicap Watch

One horse who is getting a lot faster over fences at just the right time (hopefully for a crack at something like The Grand Annual) is the Edward O Grady trained Allardyce.

His form has really improved this season. He is rated 121 in Ireland. English rating will be higher. Looking at the horses form, who could rule out him winning another chase or two before March?

One to watch.
 
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Big ask. He would need an 8lbs hke and a 7lb "cheating Irish tax" to have any chance of getting in.
 
Lol.

I'd say he'd need to win one more handicap chase before the festival to get in on a mark roughly in the mid-130's.

He only ran the other day so I'd hazard a guess his next run would be later this month or early February.

That would come just in time for the handicap entries for Cheltenham which were published last year around February 20th.
 
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I've no inside information but, when Willie galloped Al Boum Photo, Kemboy, Cadmium and Aramon at Punchestown last month, I was struck that the 5th member of the group was Blazer. He came third in the Dan Moore last year off 139 and he runs in this year's edition on Saturday off 141. He didn't make Cheltenham last year (reason unknown) and he's been dual purpose over fences and hurdles (2nd in the 2018 Galway Hurdle off 139) so a specific target is hard to identify. However, he is currently 25/1 in the Hills any race market.

I wouldn't be leaping in now but I'll be watching Saturday's race with interest.
 
Slim said:
136 might scrape in. I would say he is very unlikely to get in.
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I was reading Irish Racing website just now. O Grady said after last weeks win there is a race at Gowran over 2M2F in February. That could be the next destination.

It is up to those owners who I believe are called the 'Class of 67' racing club and his trainer, but were he to win again, I'd like to see him take his chance at Cheltenham.

Roll the dice, why not. He'd be going in the race unexposed and still improving.

A lot depends on the next run. Win cosily and anything is possible.
 
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Marb,
The Class of 67 is made up of O'Grady's ex-schoolmates from Blackrock including former HKJC handicapper Ciaran Kennelly. I think they only have a small share or lease in it.

Allardyce is just a fun horse who wants a dig in the ground and 2 1/2 miles really. He was flat out turning in at Naas and only collared them close home as the leaders went off too hard.

Cheltenham is not on his radar.
 
simmo said:
To see what finishes 6th.
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Sire De Burlais 4th but most probably 5th.
Tedham is the one I’ll be keeping a close eye on.

Having looked again think Tedham will need to win or at least run very close to qualify for the final. If markets strong in morning might lump on.
 
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Someone I keep a track of on Twitter:

Its All Guesswork 33/1 ew Pertemps
Sire Du Berlais 16/1 Pertemps
 
Slim said:
They'll surely run it in the Classic Chase on Saturday?
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They are indeed running The Conditional tomorrow. If things go well for him he could win, but his opponents are hardly going to make a simple present of the race.
 
Grey said:
They are indeed running The Conditional tomorrow. If things go well for him he could win, but his opponents are hardly going to make a simple present of the race.
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Granted but I would put no one off taking 4/1 if they believe he is on an upward curve. He already has the best form in the race.
 
Grey said:
Maybe he has the best form, Slim, but I wouldn't call his past perfect.
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Certainly not but a solid 4/1 shot none the less. I think there is a far better bet at Kempton tomorrow. I might even resurrect an old thread...
 
Slim said:
Certainly not but a solid 4/1 shot none the less. I think there is a far better bet at Kempton tomorrow. I might even resurrect an old thread...
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I’m staying off that thread, but what site to behold. Think I can half guess what you’ll be posting. Runs in yellow and green.
 
Slim said:
Certainly not but a solid 4/1 shot none the less. I think there is a far better bet at Kempton tomorrow. I might even resurrect an old thread...
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I hope so, there are too many ifs about The Conditional for my liking.
 
Slim said:
County Hurdle

Is Elixir De Nutz being handicapped for the county? 153 has now become 146. If they could get another couple of lbs drop for getting run over in another graded race he might be on a dangerous mark for a 33/1 shot.
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Slim said:
At 33/1 for the County Hurdle you are getting a big enough discount for it not to matter.
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Elixir De Nutz NOT entered for the Champion Hurdle. Full steam ahead for the County.
Take all the 33/1 you can get now people!
 
Diamond Geezer said:
He's entered in the Betfair Hurdle though
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Yeah I hear you DG. But a solid midfield run in that leaves him on same mark he's on now, or winning it or coming close, while raising his mark, also boosts his form. Either way he'll go off much shorter than 33/1 in the County imo.

The fact he's not even entered in the CH leads me to think (hope) his main target is the county, despite the winning purse differential. Some owners just want that festival winner!

I still have the scars of Wicklow brave winning the County after me backing him heavily in the Betfair & the Imperial cup, before abandoning him for the County!
 
Looking through potential Ultima runners. Sticking my bollocks on the line here and going Yorkhill, if he goes. I’m absolutely convinced he was coming with a big run in the Ladbrokes, hoping if all is sound he could end up here on a very good weight.
 
As far as I recall, Skelton only has three entered in the Betfair. He has clearly decided one major target for every season will be the County. I wouldn't mind knowing why but with Superb Story, Mohaayed and Ch'tibello winning in recent seasons, whatever he decides to run, whether entered or not at Newbury, demands serious consideration.

He was kind eough on Saturday to tell us Flash Of Steel (was that its name?) has been trained all year for one of the handicap hurdles (the conditionals'?) so I'll be watching carefully for that one.
 
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