Cheltenham - Non Festival Meets

granger

granger

Senior Jockey
Joined
Nov 3, 2005
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Moscow Flyer Stables
Showcase today and hopefully a promising novice or two

Galvin is very short in the novice chase

Ask for Glory in the 1.50 probably the horse i'm looking forward to most

Charles Byrnes a great man to have a horse forever in one of the showcase novice chases
 
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I have been suckered in to the Ask For Glory/Galvin double. Will do a couple of each way doubles with the enhanced odds on offer as well. Its good to see members can watch the whole card on RUK free of charge.
 
Yesterday evening I took 7/4 AFG, 7/4 Galvin and 5/4 Pipesmoker in a treble (16/1, which I thought was better the twice the true odds). Pipesmoker was as short as 4/9 (generally 4/7) when it was withdrawn (under 11/1 the treble by then).

The withdrawal casts doubt on whether I would have landed the treble but I'm happy enough to let the bet ride for a 13/2 double. I think both should be odds-on. They are 8lbs and 6lbs clear respectively on RPRs with the prospect of better to come.
 
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Yeah, Galvin is short for a reason. Bunged him in a double earlier in the week with Valia (Prix Royal Oak on Sunday)
 
Only doubt for me on Galvin is the trip. He’s looked a fairly strong stayed over 2m 4/5f, but it’s not a given he’ll stay the 3m, especially here. At the prices I'll take a chance on Mossy Fen
 
Galvin is reportedly being aimed at the NH Chase back here in March so will just be getting going up the hill. He tried to come from well off the pace against Imperial Aura at the festival and was a plot foiled. He's probably still about 10lbs better than his current rating with more improvement likely.
 
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I’m rowing-in with Mossy Fen in the 3m novice chase, in receipt of 8lbs from the principals. The trainer may be a duffle-coat-wearing rear-end, but he knows how to get them ready for this meeting.
 
This is where I’m thick as pig muck.

How can Galvin be a novice when jumping fences last season? So because he didn’t win he’ll be a novice all this season as well?
 
They changed the rules recently so he remains a novice until November, I think. Another reason to believe they're out to exploit it today.
 
Double J said:
This is where I’m thick as pig muck.

How can Galvin be a novice when jumping fences last season? So because he didn’t win he’ll be a novice all this season as well?
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It’s always been the case that you retain novice status in your second season, if you fail to win in your first, hasn’t it?
 
Desert Orchid said:
They changed the rules recently so he remains a novice until November, I think. Another reason to believe they're out to exploit it today.
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Elliott is aiming him at the NH Chase, DO, which is restricted to novices. He’ll retain that status all season.
 
Grasshopper said:
Elliott is aiming him at the NH Chase, DO, which is restricted to novices. He’ll retain that status all season.
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Yeah it’s confusing me tbh.

Has a massive advantage over Mossy Fen already. What a stupid rule.

Hard to not bald Galvin for this, but I do really like Mossy Fen. Hopefully Twiston has his winner tomorrow in Cogry. I can’t get away from him.
 
Grasshopper said:
Elliott is aiming him at the NH Chase, DO, which is restricted to novices. He’ll retain that status all season.
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Cheers, GH. Yes, I knew the NH Chase was the plan so can't understand why it didn't occur to me that he retained his novice status all season. I tried to take 12/1 ante-post this morning but had to settle for 10s.
 
Just caught up with today's replays.

I was never happy with how AFG was travelling. A wee bit fiddly at some of the hurdles and never seemed to be travelling with any strength in a race in which everything else needed to improve a lot to beat him. I'm sure an excuse will emerge but it served as an early reminder not to get too cocky about this game.

I got a text from the brother telling me Galvin was impressive and looked like a future National horse. Again, I was never that confident watching him but I should lay my cards on the table and confess I don't like Robbie Power as a jockey on my horses and thought he could have presented the horse a lot better at his fences. Once the pace picked up he started jumping much more cleanly but I was still not confident of victory until the leaders hit their wall going to the last. I thought he merely stayed on - not bad news for the ante-post bet for the NH Chase for which he's now 6/1 and 7/1 - and the one that ran in last throughout was roughly the same distance behind him at the line as at two out. I reckon Davy Russell will improve him 7lbs though with better jumping.

Still, looking forward to tomorrow.
 
Interesting you should say that about Power DO. I also have him ear marked next to NDB as a jockey I just can’t take to. Not sure about Russell having 7 pounds on him though. Think I just don’t like the fact the media are up his backside all the time.

Hoping for a good day from the Skeltons tomorrow. Not posting a right up why I’ve backed these but here’s a couple of my selections for tomorrow.

2.05 - Allmankind (2022 County Hurdle winner :ninja:)
2.40 - Not that Fuisse
3.50 - Cogry (Still can’t believe Frodons price, worst fav ever)

Worth noting I’ve had an horrific day today. The way Twiston Davies horses were backed today and then not performing quite concerns me for Cogry. This is no doubt his Gold Cup though and Twister will have him fit.
 
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Double J said:
Interesting you should say that about Power DO. I also have him ear marked next to NDB as a jockey I just can’t take to. Not sure about Russell having 7 pounds on him though. Think I just don’t like the fact the media are up his backside all the time.
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I can't remember where and when my distrust of Power started but probably through watching him get nowhere near winning on horses that should have won or gone close, through indifferent jumping. Same kind of situation as Tricky Dicky, I reckon.

I'm a big fan of Nico, though, but maybe that's because he rides so many Hendo horses to victory.

I don't like Skelton's riding style but I do like that he rarely gives up the inside to anybody.
 
You'll do well to get a better run for your money than with Cogry at this meeting. Mr Dependable.

Missed the prices with Cobra de Mai, but he's one I can never get right. Happy to leave him alone now.

Will take a chance on Ballymalin in the other 3m handicap and the Hobbs horse in the bumper for no reason other than he has a good record here in such ef events and i never catch onto one.
 
I'm flabbergasted at the opposition to Frodon, to be honest. That's not to say he will win but to dismiss him so forcefully really surprises me.

This is a Grade 1 horse running in a handicap. He doesn't need to make the running in my opinion but his cruising speed might just be a gear too fast for this field no matter how good they are. The extra distance will suit, I reckon, and he should be in his comfort zone for a long way. I can see him doing a Rouge Vif to this field but there are improvers aplenty in opposition.

Speaking of Rouge Vif, I've just watched the race again. It was run like a festival race and he has just run away from them. Off 156 and according the the ITV people looking as though he needed the run, he must be a 170+ horse. He has to be a contender for whichever festival race he ends up in.
 
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Frodon surely vulnerable on trip grounds with a stopping weight? I don’t reckon he’s a G1 horse at 3 miles myself, though to be honest, I don’t have a strong opinion on the race.

One horse I’m very keen on tomorrow is The Macon Lugnatic, who looks sure to benefit from being stepped-up in trip, and goes with plenty of enthusiasm.
 
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Have decided to take a view on the opening juvenile hurdle, and am adopting a stance that says the Triumph isn’t worth a sook.

The Irish raider is being backed tonight, which I’m quite pleased to see, as it means that Strategem has drifted out to the (imo, unreal) price of 8/1.

Stratagem took the scalp of well-touted Triumph disappoinment Solo in his only French start, and was a solid third on his first start for Nicholls, before winning with his head in his chest at Kelso. On ratings, that puts him right in the mixer here, but most important of all, his regular jockey/unfailing liability Mr D Maxwell (3) does not take the ride tomorrow, with Harry Cobden jocked-up instead.

That speaks volumes to me, and I think the market has gone full tits-up in siding with the bogus Triumph form, and being sucked-in by the moody Irish one. I will likely go right off the cliff with Stratagem tomorrow, as it’s not often you get to back Maxwell’s horses minus their standard two-stone penalty.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Frodon surely vulnerable on trip grounds with a stopping weight? I don’t reckon he’s a G1 horse at 3 miles myself, though to be honest, I don’t have a strong opinion on the race.

One horse I’m very keen on tomorrow is The Macon Lugnatic, who looks sure to benefit from being stepped-up in trip, and goes with plenty of enthusiasm.
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Didn't Frodon win the Cotswolds Chase over pretty much CD? I backed him for the Gold Cup that year and Nicholls himself said he felt he'd stay. The pace won't be as strong as a Gold Cup, obviously, and the weights tell us he's a class apart, giving something like 17lbs and more to Class 3 horses.

I'm a big fan of Cogry but if he forces the pace he's merely going to set it up for Frodon.

Sensulano at a decent price might be a sound each-way play despite slight concerns that the ground might not be quite soft enough for her.

I too like The Macon Lugnatic, though.
 
True, he did, but that was a Grade 2 rather than a Grade 1, with crocks, boats and dodgepots in opposition, and I doubt it took too much winning.

Frodon will undoubtedly run his customary honest race, but he makes little appeal to me at around 6/1.....in much the same way that Rouge Vif didn’t appeal to me today! :lol:
 
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