Cheltenham - Non Festival Meets

He's a Ryanair winner though and stays the trip.

The last time he ran in a handicap was two years ago off this mark in the Massey-Ferguson (Caspian Caviar to younger readers). He gave Cepage 21lbs and a beating, the pair miles clear of the third.

I have concerns about today's race but they have nothing to do with the trip. I worry that the Ryanair got to him as he wasn't the same horse last year, hence his drop in the handicap. I'm also not sure if today's race is a serious target. A run round in midfield might see him drop a few pounds ahead of either the Mackeson or Massey-Ferguson again, both probably more valuable than this although I would imagine Nicholls has a couple of second-season future Grade 1 horses laid out for them.
 
Euronymous said:
Frodon, Elegant Escape and Terrefort crawled up the hill in slow motion that day.
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I have a vague recollection that the race was very strongly run though and finished EE for the season but he came out and was an excellent staying-on third in the Hennessy off 160, trying to give runner-up The Conditional 23lbs.
 
Grasshopper said:
Have decided to take a view on the opening juvenile hurdle, and am adopting a stance that says the Triumph isn’t worth a sook.

The Irish raider is being backed tonight, which I’m quite pleased to see, as it means that Strategem has drifted out to the (imo, unreal) price of 8/1.

Stratagem took the scalp of well-touted Triumph disappoinment Solo in his only French start, and was a solid third on his first start for Nicholls, before winning with his head in his chest at Kelso. On ratings, that puts him right in the mixer here, but most important of all, his regular jockey/unfailing liability Mr D Maxwell (3) does not take the ride tomorrow, with Harry Cobden jocked-up instead.

That speaks volumes to me, and I think the market has gone full tits-up in siding with the bogus Triumph form, and being sucked-in by the moody Irish one. I will likely go right off the cliff with Stratagem tomorrow, as it’s not often you get to back Maxwell’s horses minus their standard two-stone penalty.
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Maxwell is injured, rather than jocked off but I do like the horse.
 
As long as he isn’t in the plate is what matters Bonjers - the reason for his absence being somewhat inconsequential. I reckon improvement in Stratagem is practically guaranteed, simply for the want of professional handling.
 
He's by a Japanese stallion who's best horses on the flat enjoyed fast ground which may suggest he could improve for a bit of decent ground.
 
Lots to like about Stratagem today.

Just listening to Nicholls, it sounds like Frodon might not quite be fit enough although he's well known for putting us away.
 
Time on my hands this morning & looking at the 3m chase the 11 runners have 14 course wins between them from 84 runs...

Frodon 5 wins from 12 runs
Cogry 4 from 17
Perfect Candidate 3 from 18
West Approach 1 from 18 :)
Sensulano 1 from 1
Manofthemountain 0 from 0...

Not sure it helps find the winner, but makes you realise how often they keep coming back
 
Thoughts for today, copied from elsewhere and edited accordingly:

2.05 - Anna Bunina works out top-rated because of all the allowances but she’s already come out and made her improvement this season and Tricky Dicky will always be a negative for me. Nordano and Allmankind are entitled to improve into their second season so I expect them and the Nicholls horse to dominate the race. On reflection, I've decided Nordano at 10/1 is far too big a price to ignore each-way even with just two places on offer rather than plump for something shorter.

2.40 - It looks like Nicholls is trying to take full advantage of the new conditions pertaining to novice status as Southfield Stone would otherwise not be able to run in this so he has to be the obvious selection. Pileon would work out top-rated on ORs with her allowance and is entitled to improve for the switch to fences but, again, Johnson puts me off and I imagine they won’t ask her to be too extravagant on her debut but the potential danger is there. If she really takes to fences she could win and I’m curious that they’re taking in a race like this first time up when much easier opportunities could present themselves elsewhere. I'll probably back Southfield Stone if I end up with a freebie.

4.25 - This looks a sub-standard renewal (recent winners have been rated in the 140s or better). Nico de Boinville for Ben Pauling might hold some significance so if I have a bet it will be on The Macon Lugnatic.

5.35 - I read during the week that Whittington holds Calidad in some regard and the chances are that Hobbs, Henderson and Skelton also rate their unraced entries so this could be a good race. However, Smurphy Enki’s RPR is already on a par with previous winners’ and he has experience so, assuming he can improve into his second season, he should probably be up to winning at what might be a value price. He was 4/1 in a place last night and pink (weakening) so I held off until this morning but he's come back in again and I had to settle for 3/1, which I still think might be good value.
 
Frodon did something fairly remarkable when winning a handicap from a mark of 164 last season - that doesn’t happen often - and he attempts it again today over what is unquestionably his less preferred trip.
 
The Pink’n improved for the faster better ground at Chepstow and might just be some each way value value in the 2.05 at 14/1. Shame there’s only 7 runners though


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Grasshopper said:
As long as he isn’t in the plate is what matters Bonjers - the reason for his absence being somewhat inconsequential. I reckon improvement in Stratagem is practically guaranteed, simply for the want of professional handling.
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Oh absolutely! I just interpreted your post as thinking there was an alternative motive behind the jockey change.
 
I agree with DO that Sensulano might be worth chancing today, (not sure where that post is). Well backed too. It's great to have the jumps racing back.
 
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From what Nicholls said this morning, and that he has top weight, Frodon has a lot to do today and they are not expecting him to do it. That being the thinking he, Frodon, will not doubt go and defy everything but Nicholls is expecting this to bring him on.
I really, really hope this season they let him have a go at the Gold Cup.
 
Desert Orchid said:
2.05 - Anna Bunina works out top-rated because of all the allowances but she’s already come out and made her improvement this season and Tricky Dicky will always be a negative for me. Nordano and Allmankind are entitled to improve into their second season so I expect them and the Nicholls horse to dominate the race. On reflection, I've decided Nordano at 10/1 is far too big a price to ignore each-way even with just two places on offer rather than plump for something shorter.
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That went well...

Not.
 
Desert Orchid said:
2.40 - It looks like Nicholls is trying to take full advantage of the new conditions pertaining to novice status as Southfield Stone would otherwise not be able to run in this so he has to be the obvious selection. Pileon would work out top-rated on ORs with her allowance and is entitled to improve for the switch to fences but, again, Johnson puts me off and I imagine they won’t ask her to be too extravagant on her debut but the potential danger is there. If she really takes to fences she could win and I’m curious that they’re taking in a race like this first time up when much easier opportunities could present themselves elsewhere. I'll probably back Southfield Stone if I end up with a freebie.
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No freebie so no bet but reassured that I got it largely right.
 
Yes but only £3.50. Ew in free bets. Might have been closer with a more enterprising ride


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Desert Orchid said:
I'm flabbergasted at the opposition to Frodon, to be honest. That's not to say he will win but to dismiss him so forcefully really surprises me.

This is a Grade 1 horse running in a handicap. He doesn't need to make the running in my opinion but his cruising speed might just be a gear too fast for this field no matter how good they are. The extra distance will suit, I reckon, and he should be in his comfort zone for a long way. I can see him doing a Rouge Vif to this field but there are improvers aplenty in opposition.

Speaking of Rouge Vif, I've just watched the race again. It was run like a festival race and he has just run away from them. Off 156 and according the the ITV people looking as though he needed the run, he must be a 170+ horse. He has to be a contender for whichever festival race he ends up in.
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Great shout, DO, and a great performance from the horse - straight as a die at every fence, and game as you like. I’ll call the bas*tard right one day!
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'm flabbergasted at the opposition to Frodon, to be honest. That's not to say he will win but to dismiss him so forcefully really surprises me.

This is a Grade 1 horse running in a handicap. He doesn't need to make the running in my opinion but his cruising speed might just be a gear too fast for this field no matter how good they are. The extra distance will suit, I reckon, and he should be in his comfort zone for a long way. I can see him doing a Rouge Vif to this field but there are improvers aplenty in opposition.
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Not quite a Rouge Vif performance but simply fvcking brilliant to watch.
 
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