Cheltenham Saturday

Shadow Leader said:
It's only a furlong shorter than the Gold Cup, DJ - and he did alright in that last year.

Galileo's answer is what I love about this forum. Obviously Exotic Dancer ran way below his best in the Gold Cup, he had too, since slow old boats like Halcon Genelardais and Neptune Collonges beat it. Those two horses have been used ever since that race in an attempt to rubbish the form which is just daft, in my eyes. Slowly people are starting to accept that Neptune Collonges is a good horse yet Halcon is still seen as a slow old boat therefore since Exotic Dancer finished behind him Exotic Dancer HAD to be wrong on the day. What people forget is that Halcon Genelardais is actually pretty useful; you can't consistently finish close 2nds and 3rds in highly competitive handicaps off top weight and not be useful.

Whatever you lot think of it, the form is there in black and white, it happened. So there is every reason to think that Halcon Genelardais can beat Exotic Dancer again.
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Exotic Dancer was a doubtful runner in the build up to the race having met with a setback. That setback meant he missed his intended prep runs resulting in him jumped like a pig, making numerous serious errors and running miles below his best as the ratings suggest.

Just because I said the Gold Cup formline is not worth much does not mean I have forgotten Halcon Genelardais is actually pretty useful or that he has not produced top class efforts in handicap company. I actually think he could run a very good race on Saturday as conditions would suit.

But equally I recognise that it is unlikely that Halcon Genelardais is genuinely 16 lengths a better horse than Exotic Dancer and wouldnt have a hope in hell of a chance confirming that on handicap terms!
 
He didn't really need to be going anywhere though in fairness, since he did eventually end up comeing 4th. I agree that he is obviously better over further but nowadays I think when the groung comes up on the soft side he is a match for decent horses in these type of races also. When he ran in the Pillar two seasons ago I thought that type of race may have come a bit soon for him and you could almost argue he's getting better with age, he's almost always lumbered with top weight yest always runs his race in very competitive races.
 
Exotic Dancer is rated to win it, but I'm not so sure he will. There is a great concentration of horses I've been waiting for taking part in this. I'm looking forward to this a lot. Hopefully conditions won't ruin it.

I'd like the idea of Tidal Bay if he hadn't jumped so badly last time. Nevertheless he seems to concentrate better at Cheltenham.
 
Does anyone get the impression Barber Shop is being massively overhyped (not by his trainer!)? Not sure what justifies his price, as it seems to be factoring in an awful amount of improvement.
 
Not very original but think HG is a stand out bet. Depending on how soft it gets is poss SDM could not run also think you can put a line through IC and Knowhere. Especially with the prob NTD has at the moment think IC would run in the Bet chronicle anyway if they took their chances Sat. Could not have TB after his jumping LTO not assessed Nozic or Roll Along chances yet but 3-1 could look a nice price come Sat.
 
He's got a fair few pounds to find on the form book but An Accordion has good course form, will love the ground and will stay the trip and is an improving horse - just have a feeling that 33/1 will be too big (if they declare him).
 
Hamm said:
Does anyone get the impression Barber Shop is being massively overhyped (not by his trainer!)? Not sure what justifies his price, as it seems to be factoring in an awful amount of improvement.
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I think it is his ex-jockey (Mick Fitzgerald) that has been talking him up at every opportunity on tv.
 
Not only is he over-hyped, Barber's Shop is a horse I certainly wouldn't trust with my money - been there, done that, watched him do his utmost to make sure my cash went down the pan (and suceeded).
 
granger said:
Has anyone seen any prices yet? Had a look earlier and found nowt
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Halcon Genelardais 9/4
Star de Mohaison 7/2
Nozic 5/1
Tidal Bay 6/1
Roll Along 7/1
Albertas Run 16/1
Joe Lively 16/1
Snoopy Loopy 20/1
Imperial Commander 25/1
An Accordion 25/1
Monkerhostin 33/1
Miko de Beauchene 33/1
Ollie Magern 66/1


Punchestowns 8/11
Big Buck's 4/1
Blazing Bailey 6/1
Fair Along 7/1
Lough Derg 12/1
No Refuge 20/1
Petitfour 20/1
Tazbar 33/1
Turpin Green 66/1
:D
 
They're going to need flippers to get round, surely?

Certainly nothing would be getting near the start at Newbury today without a snorkel and armbands.
 
I'd be happier if they abandoned this meeting. The going is going to be the worst the course has experienced in years and will cut up very badly. If we have an extended cold spell between now and the festival the ground could end up a mess when it should be the best it can for the time of year.
 
Shadow Leader said:
Get on Reve De Sivola!
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I think this has to be the best piece of advice on this thread. By a sire whose progeny show a preference for soft/heavy ground, he's weighted to beat Walkon on Chepstow form. That was just the third run of his life, he's improved markedly with each one (Walkon had 4 runs on the Flat), and he can't fail to be suited by the extra stamina test that today should provide. There's still room for improvement in his jumping, though with the conditions that shouldn't be put under so much pressure as at Chepstow and he's sure to be finishing strongly. Looks more a 13/8 chance than 3/1.
 
What's going to beat him?? That performance was just green and the ground should be much better come March which will be better for him.

It's frightening really how good this horse might be - watching him I'm struck by how gangly, gawky and generally babyish he stil looks in the way he moves. He's still very much a raw product and when he strengthens up and fills out his enormous frame he will be some beast. Very similar could be said of Reve De Sivola too, actually.
 
Hes lovely isnt he Shads - first time Ive looked at him properly today - hes HUGE !!! (hate to admit agreeing with Simon, but he will be interesting over fences!!!) Wont he be just proper when he grows into himself?!!

Loved the Leth and Chris just now - that will have me grinning all day. (after RdeS wins as well of course!!)
 
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