Cheltenham Saturday

His gangly babyish frame is why I wont back him come Ballymore day.I do agree that he has serious scope to make a classy chaser in time. Very green today, not sure how he will cope in the hussle bussle of a Ballymore
 
Oh he's very much a chaser in the making.

I dunno Granger, I think he'll be harder than you think and should be ok in the race.
 
should have been able to give the weight if good enough to be 2/1 fav at this point...Punchestowns looks flattered on todays run...weight differences are used as an excuse far too many times imo

anyone gambling on weight pulls to reverse results only gain about 5% of the time...still think it's a good thing to reverse form?..I don't
 
davidjohnson said:
I think this has to be the best piece of advice on this thread. By a sire whose progeny show a preference for soft/heavy ground, he's weighted to beat Walkon on Chepstow form. That was just the third run of his life, he's improved markedly with each one (Walkon had 4 runs on the Flat), and he can't fail to be suited by the extra stamina test that today should provide. There's still room for improvement in his jumping, though with the conditions that shouldn't be put under so much pressure as at Chepstow and he's sure to be finishing strongly. Looks more a 13/8 chance than 3/1.
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Unlucky, ran into a very good one in Walkon by the looks of it. Reve De Sivola has been given a 25/1 quote for the Triumph, whereas Walkon is a 6/1 chance. Given that Reve De Sivola is still improving, I'm sure that price will tempt a few.
 
He looked to be thinking about pulling himself up in front after jumping the last flight to me, his head was going higher into the air and he didn't seem so keem to go forward IMO.
 
Grasshopper said:
Does that statistic apply to wfa races as well as handicaps, EC?
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it's a general stat Grass, so assume it does...and no I can't remember where I read it.

I do know that since that stat sunk in my thick skull I have always born it in mind..it's surprising but it does stand up to scrutiny

there was a classic example of it today with Walkon & Reve di Sivola..at the weights compared to their previous meeting Reve was "weighted to win by 2 lengths today..but still lost pretty comfy....the slide rule boys shown again that weight pulls very rarely reverse results

i think we all know that weight matters to a degree but there are other factors that affect a race far greater.

to base a future race outcome on a small weight pull is pure folly imo.
 
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Different with juveniles and unexposed types though, EC1, where progression is a matter of guesswork, and no-one can be exactly sure exactly how much any one horse has in hand over another.

To a certain extent, that might be the case with Big Bucks (still pretty unexposed over hurdles), but all the same, I'd be in the camp that says Punchestowns can reverse this form on quicker ground at at level weights.
 
to me the quicker ground and stronger pace would suit BB just as much as Punchestowns..probably more so....in fact todays jog and sprint should have suited P better..all in all..I would favour BB to laugh at any small weight change bearing it in mind he won today a race that P should have eaten.
 
Can't agree.

Henderson was saying all week he was worried about the ground. In the circumstances, I think Punchestowns run today did him great credit.
 
Watched the stuff at Navan today....

Diamond Harry will struggle against the Irish novices. Looks on the weak side, needs fences and looked a tricky ride. Trainer said he looked too light in the parade ring...not the best prep then to have a hard race like that 6 weeks for Cheltenham.

Punchestowns was disappointing, should have loved that ground I do not think better ground will suit him. Big Bucks won it well but Kasbah Bliss looks better and better particularly if the ground is decent.

The 3 mile chase will have no impact on the Gold Cup though I thought Tidal Bay ran a sound Ryanair Chase Trial.
 
did not back punchestowns today, i love this horse think he has tremendous potential but did feel a bit dissapointed at him getting beat however nicky henderson is very bullish seems he let the horse down slightly after last run and thinks he will come on for it cant help feeling in my gut that big bucks will confirm form at cheltenham however.
 
"
Quote:
Originally Posted by EC1
anyone gambling on weight pulls to reverse results only gain about 5% of the time...still think it's a good thing to reverse form?..I don't

Does that statistic apply to wfa races as well as handicaps, EC? "

I think it's very dangerous to assume taking one factor in isolation, eg a simple weights turnaround, will work out exactly.
 
A pathetic effort from the saddle from Daryl Jacob on Reve de Sivola. He was done for toe by Walkon at Chepstow so for some reason Jacob rides him to do him for a turn of foot. Real poor and it relects badly on him that people that have been nowhere near the horse can see how it should be ridden and he having sat on it still doesn't know.
 
davidjohnson said:
A pathetic effort from the saddle from Daryl Jacob on Reve de Sivola. He was done for toe by Walkon at Chepstow so for some reason Jacob rides him to do him for a turn of foot. Real poor and it relects badly on him that people that have been nowhere near the horse can see how it should be ridden and he having sat on it still doesn't know.
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Paul Duffy was told by several people that Jacob had cost his mount a decent chance of victory yesterday. He's very loyal and loath to criticise the lad, but he can't be best pleased in retrospect.
 
I agree with DJ's comments about Jacob's ride. I backed Walkon but I certainly didn't expect his main rival to be ridden like that.

As an ante-post backer of Punchestowns, I was only slightly disappointed with his run on Saturday. His price for the World Hurdle before Saturday's race was ridiculously short and the odds now more accurately reflect his chance at the Festival. I thought he travelled like the best horse in the race at the weekend but didn't really get home in the ground. He certainly wouldn't want it on the fast side in March but he'll be more suited by the better ground which we're likely to see then.

I take EC's point about the altered weights but I'll clutch at one particularly interesting straw. Two years ago, Blazing Bailey beat Inglis Drever in the Cleeve by four lengths in receipt of eight pounds from the runner-up, exactly the same margin and weight difference as Saturday. Come March, at levels, Inglis Drever reversed the form, finishing four lengths ahead of Blazing Baileys.
 
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