Cheltenham - Tuesday - What are you backing?

Ardross said:
The prices were barmy - Honeysuckle was very close to Benie on form and was too quick for her off the bend. I suspect she would have given Epatante one hell of a race .
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Now I think that more than ever - today she both outstayed and had too much pace for the opposition.
 
How much stamina does it take to run a trip 5 secs slower than the 131 h'capper that won the race following?
Suspect a CH tilt would show exactly how good she isn't.
 
reet hard said:
How much stamina does it take to run a trip 5 secs slower than the 131 h'capper that won the race following?
Suspect a CH tilt would show exactly how good she isn't.
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This

Predicted this on another thread, she’d win, and therefore everything else will be a nicer price because of it.
 
reet hard said:
How much stamina does it take to run a trip 5 secs slower than the 131 h'capper that won the race following?
Suspect a CH tilt would show exactly how good she isn't.
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That Hurdle race was a 140 rated performance! She put 20 length's between herself and the winner at the post, on video comparison, carrying 14Lb more.
She doubled that distance against the group 2, 140 rated performance of the bumper, she was in receipt of 8Lb, but she did pop 8 hurdles.

I thought it was very impressive...
 
It was impressive, Max, albeit off a a steady pace. The doubt is; can she reproduce against a CH field - most of which will mean business, much more than they did?
 
ps Dress it up how you like; the only direct comparison is she ran more than 5 secs skower than a 131 hurdler.
 
reet hard said:
ps Dress it up how you like; the only direct comparison is she ran more than 5 secs skower than a 131 hurdler.
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She ran it nearly 5 seconds faster...

Chanelle Pharma Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
2m, €84,000
Going: Soft To Heavy
6. Honeysuckle
10/11F
1. Abacadabras
10/1
5. Sharjah
100/30
6 ran Distances: 10l, 9l, 2l Time: 4m 1.50s (slow by 16.50s)
Winning jockey: Rachael Blackmore.
Winning trainer: Henry De Bromhead.

Ladbrokes Hurdle (Extended Handicap Hurdle) (Grade B)
2m, €73,750
Going: Soft To Heavy
18. Drop The Anchor
8/1
14. Champagne Gold
16/1
19. Saint D'oroux
16/1
20. West Cork Wildway
16/1
22 ran ..Distances: 1¼l, 5l, 3l Time: 4m 4.10s (slow by 19.10s)
Winning jockey: Simon Torrens
Winning trainer: P A Fahy

Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
2m, €73,750
Going: Soft To Heavy
1. Appreciate It
1/3F
2. Ballyadam
10/1
3. Blue Lord
14/1
13 ran NR: Distances: 3¼l, 2¾l, 1½l Time: 4m 6.90s (slow by 21.90s)
Winning jockey: Paul Townend
Winning trainer: W P Mullins
 
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What in the name of God is going on with this thread? Looks like some merging went wrong.
 
Maxbet
Apologies - you're correct, and I've obviously read it AAF. Still doesn't alter the fact it was no way a thorough test. In the CH proper, she'll be challenged by a sizeable field of quality horses; probably at every hurdle, and many places in between, by horses travelling at 2m Champioship speed, which (imo) she has yet to prove capable of. That certainly wasn't the case, either on Saturday or at last year's festival.
 
Power has ridden twice for Mullins since last years festival, that said Mullins had 6 horses in both races, so options were probably thin on the ground
 
reet hard said:
Maxbet
Apologies - you're correct, and I've obviously read it AAF. Still doesn't alter the fact it was no way a thorough test. In the CH proper, she'll be challenged by a sizeable field of quality horses; probably at every hurdle, and many places in between, by horses travelling at 2m Champioship speed, which (imo) she has yet to prove capable of. That certainly wasn't the case, either on Saturday or at last year's festival.
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Though he waxes lyrical about Honeysuckle's performance, SR's own figures show that Rachel B was allowed to do her own thing, from about 3 out.
https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight/10-February-2021/dublin-racing-festival---winners-compariso
 
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reet hard said:
Though he waxes lyrical about Honeysuckle's performance, SR's own figures show that Rachel B was allowed to do her own thing, from about 3 out.
https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight/10-February-2021/dublin-racing-festival---winners-compariso
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I agree, but figures alone without some context cant tell the real story!

After the 4th last Honeysuckle cruised alongside Petit Mouchoir, about 30 metre's past the 3rd last she pushed on. There was no immediate panic from Cooper on Petit, but kennedy saw the move and squeezed a bit of urgency out of Abacadabra's, Patrick Mullins followed Him through on the outside. Saldier tried to improve up the inside, didn't make a good jump and immediately came under pressure, Cooper started rowing away, and Walsh and Saint Roi began their earnest attempt at closing, those 3 were flat to the boards for the rest of the race. Meanwhile, halfway between the 3rd and the 2nd last, Kennedy tried to close, on the bridle at first but soon got at his mount. Mullins did exactly the same but was further back. On the approach to the last, Blackmore started giving Honeysuckle a ride, and despite the urgings of the riders behind, Honeysuckle started to stretch away.

Now it's not as if they went any slower through the race than the handicap, in fact, she was a second faster between the 4th and the 5th, but from the 3rd last to 2 out she gained 4 seconds, from 2 out to the last, another 4 seconds, and from the last to the line, 3 seconds and carrying a stone more weight. If that isn't tactical speed, I don't know what is!

Yes, she did catch them napping, but they were powerless and ability shy to have done anything about it. Epatante has a high cruising speed, she does make mistakes and she has shown that she is vunerable to a horse that has started it's top speed run, from some way out. I Honestly believe, Honeysuckle will have too much tacticle speed, her strength and stamina up the hill will enable Blackmore to shake them all off. Can just see the scrimmaging in behind, jockeying for position...."the two mares have gone right away, what a ride from Blackmore..Honeysuckle the new Champion, the new girl on the block"
 
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Just my opinion, but Eparante was beaten by the ground at Kempton, which was a piece faster than the previous year, but Cheltenham isn't Kempton and - all other things being equal - tactical speed won't be an issue this March. Wouldn't bet ante-post, but 11/4 on the day would probably look attractive.
 
reet hard said:
Just my opinion, but Eparante was beaten by the ground at Kempton, which was a piece faster than the previous year, but Cheltenham isn't Kempton and - all other things being equal - tactical speed won't be an issue this March. Wouldn't bet ante-post, but 11/4 on the day would probably look attractive.
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I'd also add that they found a back issue which they've corrected. All plausible because it clearly wasn't her running at Kempton.

I'm all over Epatante, but I have to admit that despite previously writing Honey off for this race, I was wrong and she is a very real threat.
 
reet hard said:
Just my opinion, but Eparante was beaten by the ground at Kempton, which was a piece faster than the previous year, but Cheltenham isn't Kempton and - all other things being equal - tactical speed won't be an issue this March. Wouldn't bet ante-post, but 11/4 on the day would probably look attractive.
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You can have 11/4 nrnb with PP now....
 
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