Chepstow!

So glad to hear this. I've had staying guests and no time to look at the race. Pressure off, so I can enjoy my porridge!
 
It takes a very good horse (G2/G1 level) to be winning this from the head of the weights, and only four horses carried more than 11-0 to win in the last 20 years; two of them being Gold Cup winners (Synchronised and Master Oats), and the other two being Native River (3rd in a Gold Cup) and Halcon Genelardais (4th in a Gold Cup).

There is nothing remotely that class in this race, imo, and with a marathon trip on Heavy Ground, I want to be with a relative lightweight. Of those declared at the 5-Day stage, I've rowed-in with Ask The Weatherman. He has winning-form at up to 3m4f (albeit in a Point), has winning-form on Soft/Heavy ground, has a progressive-looking profile under Rules (despite being a 9yo), has been laid-out for it, and with only 10-13 on his back, he will think he is running-loose (has never carried less than 11-7 in any of his previous races).

I've taken 19 through 16.5 on Betfair, and a boosted 13/1 with Ladbrokes.

Health Warning: my record in the race is fu*cking appalling, with Edmond being the only time I have called it right, and that was 18 years ago!
 
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I'll run through them tonight (since my internet connection is currently holding) and put up what I think but there has to be a chance the race won't survive again or will cut up.
 
CHP 2.10 CORAL WELSH GRAND NATIONAL HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3) Win £85,425 25 run 3m5f110y Heavy ITV
[TABLE="width: 645"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]NO.[/TD]
[TD]FORM[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]HORSE[/TD]
[TD]AGE[/TD]
[TD]WGT[/TD]
[TD]TRAINER RTF%[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]TS[/TD]
[TD]MON
(165)[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]RPR[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]2/81-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Silsol[SUP]42[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]11-8[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[SUP]45[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]147[/TD]
[TD]—[/TD]
[TD][172][/TD]
[TD]Hd[/TD]
[TD]—[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]403P-2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Bishops Road[SUP]35[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]11-5[/TD]
[TD]Kerry Lee[SUP]71[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]144[/TD]
[TD]115[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]163[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]P0-F22[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Raz De Maree[SUP]32[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]11-1[/TD]
[TD]Gavin Cromwell[SUP]63[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]140[/TD]
[TD]84[/TD]
[TD](168)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]3F7-12[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Vintage Clouds[SUP]42[/SUP] [/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11-1[/TD]
[TD]Sue Smith[SUP]59[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]140[/TD]
[TD]130[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]208-14[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Folsom Blue[SUP]41[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]10-12[/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott[SUP]58[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]137[/TD]
[TD]92[/TD]
[TD](165)[/TD]
[TD]p?[/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]69F1-2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Vicente[SUP]49[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]11-12[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[SUP]45[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]151[/TD]
[TD]147[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]PP8P-3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Firebird Flyer[SUP]55[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]10-5[/TD]
[TD]Evan Williams[SUP]29[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]130[/TD]
[TD]—[/TD]
[TD](164)[/TD]
[TD]oe
[173ed][/TD]
[TD]—[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]16-92F[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Two Smokin Barrels[SUP]11[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]10-0[/TD]
[TD]Michael Scudamore[SUP]38[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]125[/TD]
[TD]117[/TD]
[TD](164)[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]PPP6-[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]O´Faolains Boy[SUP]252[/SUP] [/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]10-12[/TD]
[TD]Rebecca Curtis[/TD]
[TD]137[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]163[/TD]
[TD]?
{179}[/TD]
[TD]150[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]149-P2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Alfie Spinner[SUP]28[/SUP] [/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]10-7[/TD]
[TD]Kerry Lee[SUP]71[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]132[/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[TD]163[/TD]
[TD]? p?[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]11F6-2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Final Nudge[SUP]56[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]11-6[/TD]
[TD]David Dennis[SUP]80[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD]140[/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]840-16[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Houblon Des Obeaux[SUP]28[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]11-4[/TD]
[TD]Venetia Williams[SUP]50[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]143[/TD]
[TD]128[/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[TD](170+)[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]PPP-63[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Milansbar[SUP]28[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]10-9[/TD]
[TD]Neil King[/TD]
[TD]134[/TD]
[TD]112[/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[TD][175+][/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]1174-1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Beware The Bear[SUP]35[/SUP]4x[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson[SUP]59[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[TD]127[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]200-11[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Buckhorn Timothy[SUP]44[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]10-12[/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard[SUP]31[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]137[/TD]
[TD]—[/TD]
[TD](161)[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[TD]—[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]3P3-94[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Streets Of Promise[SUP]7[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]10-6[/TD]
[TD]Michael Scudamore[SUP]38[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]131[/TD]
[TD]97[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[TD]?
[162][/TD]
[TD]150[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]113-1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Wild West Wind[SUP]28[/SUP]4x [/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]11-3[/TD]
[TD]Tom George[SUP]58[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]142[/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]1P12-[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Mysteree[SUP]294[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]10-13[/TD]
[TD]Michael Scudamore[SUP]38[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]138[/TD]
[TD]127[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]11P-3P[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Rathlin Rose[SUP]28[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]10-7[/TD]
[TD]David Pipe[SUP]20[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]132[/TD]
[TD]131[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]P5P-31[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Emperor´s Choice[SUP]7[/SUP]4x [/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]10-3[/TD]
[TD]Venetia Williams[SUP]50[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]128[/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD](167d)[/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]4126-1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Rock The Kasbah[SUP]84[/SUP] [/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Philip Hobbs[SUP]13[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[TD]134[/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]2111-2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]On The Road[SUP]43[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]10-5[/TD]
[TD]Evan Williams[SUP]29[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]130[/TD]
[TD]108[/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2751-1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Chase The Spud[SUP]42[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]11-9[/TD]
[TD]Fergal O´Brien[SUP]44[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]115[/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]115-9[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Pobbles Bay[SUP]56[/SUP] [/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11-5[/TD]
[TD]Evan Williams[SUP]29[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]144[/TD]
[TD]107[/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]147[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]1171-1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Ask The Weatherman[SUP]60[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]10-13[/TD]
[TD]Jack R Barber[SUP]67[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]138[/TD]
[TD]87[/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[TD]+?p?[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

This is, as usual, a very competitive renewal of an always fascinating race. Right now I don’t think I would want to put anyone off anything. As I was doing the figures, what was going through my mind was that it would be nice if Folsom Blue was under the radar but at a current best price of 10/1 I can wait.

The two that catch my eye at nice prices are Silsol (33/1) and Buckhorn Timothy (40/1). I was hoping for similar odds about Milansbar since I put him up at God knows what price in the ‘Long Shot’ thread the other week only fior him not to run but he’s 20/1 and blue this evening so again I can wait.

Silsol hasn’t run over fences since January 2016 but he was a 158 (OR) hurdler at this best so really should be a 170 chaser waiting to happen, which would make him very well in off 147. I’ll wait till he’s confirmed and a jockey booked before getting involved, though.

Buckhorn Timothy’s two wins this season from two runs have been over hurdles but I wonder if that is to preserve a good mark. It looks to me like those hurdles runs suggest he’s improving and if he translate that improvement back over fences he’s a lovely price. I’ve taken the price each-way.
 
RP article today suggested connections were "very confident" as the storm that had swept the country actually helped them out in that it was mainly wind which had dried the course. Not taht much rain expected there now apparently so I'd say it'll go ahead, on desperate ground still probably.
 
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wilsonl said:
RP article today suggested connections were "very confident" as the storm that had swept the country actually helped them out in that it was mainly wind which had dried the course. Not taht much rain expected there now apparently so I'd say it'll go ahead, on desperate ground still probably.
Click to expand...
Thanks, that is more positive than I was expecting!!

Sent from my SM-G360F using Tapatalk
 
moehat said:
Hasn't it been a long time since a horse won the Welsh without a prep run?
Click to expand...

Yes. The stat gets a mensh in the Weekender: "...no seasonal debutant has triumphed in more than three decades."

I do believe Native River well and truly bucked several trends last year, though.

The chances are nowadays 'seasonal debutants' will have had a racecourse gallop or three if they're taking the race seriously.
 
This is tougher than Aintree..Twice I backed Giles Cross and had a tenner or something on Native River in running last year....that's the best I have done in 40 years but this year I expect to have the win

NJH has been putting his heart and soul into winning this and you should Beware The Bear :)

His Newcastle win was nothing short of amazing. He looked like was taking the **** out of Sean Bowen for half the race but Sean persevered and won in the end. With JM back on board, who knows him so well, things should go much smoother.

He'll love every yard of the trip , the going won't bother him and the 4lb rise certainly won't stop him

NJH has waited along time to win a National and he should put that right on Saturday
 
moehat said:
I need a reason not to back O'Faolains Boy given that I've been backing him forever!
Click to expand...

He was a flash in the pan ..the things a useless donkey and you'd have to be on drugs to back the effin thing....Only reason Barry is riding it ais he's hoping to get another ride in the yard:blink:..Hope that helped :lol:
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Yes. The stat gets a mensh in the Weekender: "...no seasonal debutant has triumphed in more than three decades."

I do believe Native River well and truly bucked several trends last year, though.

The chances are nowadays 'seasonal debutants' will have had a racecourse gallop or three if they're taking the race seriously.
Click to expand...

O'Faolain's Boy has had a racecourse gallop as well as a wind op
 
20 Go in the National but one horse is engaged elsewhere.............Na cant be......O'Faolain's Boy:blink: also in the old timers chase at Sandown
 
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