Cleeve Hurdle

Knockara Beau ran an RPR of 154, equal to his best ever rating and a sure sign that all the cards fell his way on the day.
Big Bucks ran a 160, a mark he only fell below once in his 18 win sequence, and while he might improve for better ground and a more judicious ride, the notion that he's going to find a deal more for conditioning - considering his long and detailed preparation, and he wouldn't be sent out half-fit to run on a potentially game leg - is optimistic; at best. The obvious inference is that he's regressive.
At Fishers Cross, conversely, is rated to have run his best ever race, and - to these eyes - was ridden more to ensure he didn't have a hard race than going hell-for-leather to win, and I'd expect him (even though he's 3 times the price) to find at least the 4lbs or so he'd need to confirm the form in the big one.
 
Yes. I'm reading posters talking about bankers in the wh which is very strange. It's the race with the most imponderables

We know the doubts surrounding ap and bb but I still think it is less than guaranteed that arc will hurdle effectively again and certainly may not get ideal ground
 
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reet hard said:
Knockara Beau ran an RPR of 154, equal to his best ever rating and a sure sign that all the cards fell his way on the day.
Big Bucks ran a 160, a mark he only fell below once in his 18 win sequence, and while he might improve for better ground and a more judicious ride, the notion that he's going to find a deal more for conditioning - considering his long and detailed preparation, and he wouldn't be sent out half-fit to run on a potentially game leg - is optimistic; at best. The obvious inference is that he's regressive.
At Fishers Cross, conversely, is rated to have run his best ever race, and - to these eyes - was ridden more to ensure he didn't have a hard race than going hell-for-leather to win, and I'd expect him (even though he's 3 times the price) to find at least the 4lbs or so he'd need to confirm the form in the big one.
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RPR is no more than an opinion not fact .
 
Unless my deeper reading of the form tells me anything different, I'll be rating Knockara Beau as having run to whatever his best hurdles run in the last couple of seasons was and then taking the rest of the race from there.

Heavy ground will always render form suspicious. Often only one or two in a race genuinely act in a particular kind of heavy in one race. I also tend to allow only 1/2lb per length in heavy even at 2m.
 
BB best horse at weights and is the only one to take out of the race, as far as the Stayers is concerned. Only AP stands between him and victory, and current odds could look awfully generous after the race.
 
Grasshopper said:
BB best horse at weights and is the only one to take out of the race, as far as the Stayers is concerned. Only AP stands between him and victory, and current odds could look awfully generous after the race.
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Shuffling through tons and tons of sh*te of yours, you make a smell of a decent comment. Only a whiff mind :D
 
Is it possible Mullins moves Quevega to WH and let's AP have the mares. I wouldn't have thought so originally but he is so protective of AP he doesn't want to risk her confidence in CH or destroy her in a slog in the WH.

Reckon Big Bucks will improve for the ground, I'd imagine Nicholls had him fairly close to peak fitness for the Cleve so don't think that was the issue people are making out
 
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Annie Power is better than Quevega and Mullins knows it, which is why she'll run in a proper championship race and leave Quevega to enter the record books by beating up inferiors again. I'd make the champion favourite. A mare in her second season doesn't need to be running in a 3m war. She would have a massive chance if she did but I think they'll go the 2m route and if she gets beat they'll go novice chasing.
 
Anybody think Big Bucks could improve a bit if they took half of the 28Lb he had strapped to the saddle and wrapped it round the jockeys waist.
I Fe hil y could
 
Joking apart if Annie Power does skip it the temptation to put Ruby back On Big Buck's would be enormous for all their support of Sam's ride .
 
Maxbet said:
Anybody think Big Bucks could improve a bit if they took half of the 28Lb he had strapped to the saddle and wrapped it round the jockeys waist.
I Fe hil y could
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That's an interesting angle.

What do the physicists say?

I imagine the difference would be marginal but it might make all the difference in a photo finish.
 
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BigTea said:
Is it possible Mullins moves Quevega to WH and let's AP have the mares. I wouldn't have thought so originally but he is so protective of AP he doesn't want to risk her confidence in CH or destroy her in a slog in the WH.

Reckon Big Bucks will improve for the ground, I'd imagine Nicholls had him fairly close to peak fitness for the Cleve so don't think that was the issue people are making out
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Quevega stays in the Mares. No doubt. I am worried that Ruby is telling Mullins to run AP in the CH as he doesnt think the horse will settle enough to win a WH.
 
Maxbet said:
Anybody think Big Bucks could improve a bit if they took half of the 28Lb he had strapped to the saddle and wrapped it round the jockeys waist.
I Fe hil y could
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I have discussed this elsewhere several years ago , there is no doubt that the heavier jockey is a more balanced weight for the horse to carry and in my opinion is better, the other consideration is the size and build of the horse , We came to the conclusion that the smaller the horse the more it would be effected by the lead in the saddle bags.
For the record I cant understand why Fehily wasn't on the horse anyway.
 
frontrunner said:
I have discussed this elsewhere several years ago , there is no doubt that the heavier jockey is a more balanced weight for the horse to carry and in my opinion is better, the other consideration is the size and build of the horse , We came to the conclusion that the smaller the horse the more it would be effected by the lead in the saddle bags.
For the record I cant understand why Fehily wasn't on the horse anyway.
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Once Jacob was out of the picture and Walsh/McCoy unavailable it was Stewart's call and they chose Sam TD.
 
Fehily isnt a PFN jock now is he? Thought it was Jacob and Scholfield? But he obv wants STD as his future no.1 and this was one way to court him.
 
Digger said:
Fehily isnt a PFN jock now is he? Thought it was Jacob and Scholfield? But he obv wants STD as his future no.1 and this was one way to court him.
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Sam would be the easiest one to put an arm around the shoulder and say, We have had second thoughts, especially now Ruby is available. Hypothetically speaking.
 
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