I'd have said yes, otherwise I can't think what Song of Hiawatha is doing in there as he won't be good enough to slow it up single handed, they'll just run round him. As a race for older horses, it seems to be the case that the winner already has a Gp1 to their name (7 of the last 10 did) and you might forgive Dalipour who had come second in both Derby's and had the misfortune to run into Montjeu in one of them. Yeats was having his first try at Group 1, and Warrsan was the only other one who hadn't got a win on the board. The old addage reads that Gp1 horses win Gp1 races
Going into this race, only Red Rocks, and Soldier of Fortune can join Youmzain in that claim. Now neither Red Rocks or Youmzains Gp1 win was spectacular and their S/R in the grade is low. It could be argued that their respective wins coming in the races they did are inferior, (I wouldn't really disagree) but of the two Youmzains form looks much the more superior to Red Rocks on just about every collateral line that ties them together. If you decide to start placing a secondary filter on meritous second places then his unlucky Arc and good King George would make him the obvious pick
What price would Dylan Thomas be if he were lining up?
Soldier of Fortune must be being focused at second half targets I'd thought? and I'd be surprised if he's been trained to the moment for this. In trying to win this off such a break he'll be attempting something that hasn't been achieved in recent times. Those horses which had a break of 75 odd days and went onto win, ran in the Sheema, no one's defied 243 day. Indeed, quite a few ran at Nad Al Sheeba
Warrsan - 5th - Sheema
Boreal - 3rd - Sheema
Mutafaweq - 8th - Dubai World Cup
Daylami - 5th - Sheema
Youmzains 5th in the Sheema isn't out of kilter with a prep for this target race. The only one you'd really be scarred of is Getaway, but Youmzains holds him on the Arc, and at the prices must rate a better bet. In any event, the Jockey Club is a bit contradictory. Sixties Icon was comfortably beaten (3.5L's) when likely to have been in need of the run. Fair enough, he goes and beats Sweet Lily NTO in a listed race at Goodwood. But listed doesn't equal Gp1. You could argue he was entitle to win this. The third horse home (4.5L's) was Galactic Star who was beaten at Chantilly over the weekend and finished last of 8 in a Gp2. Which of these races was likely to be the fairer reflection on the quality of those running behind Getaway at Newmarket? I'm more inclined to be worried about the third horse homes inability to lay a glove on his subsequent opponents in the higher grade, then Sixties Icon to win in a lower grade.
Initially I thought I'd recorded a Group 1 time in the Ormonde for MacArthur, but having seen both Supersonic Dave (2nd) and Red Gala (4th) go to York and finish a distant 8th (22L's) and 5th (5.75L's) I'm prepared to accept I've got this wrong. As the only two horses to have advertised the Ormonde it would take a blind leap of faith now.
Youmzains group 1 form is better than Red Rocks in terms of place finishes, quality of races contested, combined lengths beaten, average lengths beaten, proximity to other horses they've both raced, even if they both read 1 win from 8.
Youmzain and Getaway reversed
