Here is the preview I did for this race. Bear in mind it is intended as a general form preview assessing the merits of the main contenders, rather than a simple "I fancy X, hear's why."
Thanks to Chris Beek for giving me a hand.
As always, feedback and opinions are definitely welcome.
Coronation Stakes (G1)
Three year-old fillies take centre stage on day four of Royal Ascot with the Coronation Stakes, run over a mile on the round course. A race won in recent years by the likes of Russian Rhythm (2003) and Attraction (2004), it once again brings Irish, French and English 1,000 Guineas form to the fore. It is disappointing, however, that not one of the three Guineas winners line up, particularly the crack French fillies Natagora and Zarkava. On balance, it looks to be a solid, competitive, though by no means vintage, renewal. With the exception of Alain de Royer-Dupre’s Zarkava, this is probably a relatively fair assessment of the generation as a whole thusfar as well.
The Chevelely Park Stud, so successful in the race in the past with the likes of Nannina, Russian Rhythm and Exlusive, is responsible for the front two in the market, Spacious and Infallible. Spacious, a daughter of Nayef, created a good impression when following up a Leicester maiden victory with a win in the May Hill at Doncaster over a mile. Though the runner-up, Kotsi, has not done a great deal to frank the form this year, Spacious confirmed herself a high-class filly when chasing home Natagora in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket. The relatively steady tempo at which the Guineas was run didn’t look to suit James Fanshawe’s filly, who took a while to pick up before staying on well to chase Natagora to the line without ever looking like getting to her. Despite the French Guineas probably being stronger overall form than the Newmarket equivalent, her second behind Pascal Bary’s filly is probably the strongest piece of form on show. A big filly with plenty of scope, Spacious can be expected to improve from what was her first run this year. However, she shaped as if she very much needed a strongly run mile to be seen to best effect (as she will almost certainly stay 10 furlongs) and there is no guarantee that will be the case tomorrow either, which might perhaps leave her vulnerable to a filly with a superior turn of foot over the trip. While she deserves her position at the head of the market, she could hardly be described as value at 3/1.
Cheveley Park’s two-pronged attack on the race is completed by John Gosden’s Infallible. A daughter of Pivotal, Infallible shot to the head of the Guineas market with an impressive victory in the Nell Gwyn over 7 furlongs at Newmarket on her seasonal debut. Like Spacious, she wasn’t suit by the way the 1,000 Guineas was run. As the field tracked over to the stand’s rail, she failed to find cover and, as a result, was a touch keen during the early stages. She quickened nicely to challenge Natagora in the dip, but could find no extra in the final half-furlong. Although connections believe she gets a mile, her Guineas run did not seem to back that assertion. Her pedigree does not exactly inspire confidence on the stamina front either, being by Pivotal out of a mare (by Cadeux Genereaux) who was probably best suited by 6 furlongs. As the mile at Ascot is a stiffer test than the Rowley Mile, there must be some question of her getting the trip, as well as to whether she will be ideally suited by fast ground. That said, she is reportedly in better form at home than she was before Newmarket.
The sole French challenger in the field is David Smaga’s Modern Look, having finished behind both Natagora and Zarkava. represents the collateral form link between the English and French Guineas, having finished a length and a half behind Natagora in the Prix Imprudence over 7 furlongs before being beaten 4 ¼ lengths by Zarkava in the Pouliches. She has since run out an impressive runner of the Prix Sandringham over a mile, but it is far from certain that she will be suited by fast ground. However, her pedigree suggests that fast ground will not inconvenience the Zamindar filly. In the Pouliches Modern Look finished ¾ of a length behind Aidan O’Brien’s Halfway To Heaven, who went on to win the Irish 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh. Among those beaten was Dermot Weld’s Caribbean Sunset, promoted to third following the disqualification of Tuscan Evening. On a line through Halfway To Heaven there is very little, at least on collateral form, between Modern Look (who was slightly hampered close home at Longchamp), Tuscan Evening (who also lines up tommorrow) and Caribbean Sunset. Indeed, when it is taken into account that Halfway To Heaven chased quite a strong pace at Longchamp but was prominent in a relatively slowly-run race at the Curragh, it could be argued that there is actually more merit in the performance of Caribbean Sunset at the Curragh, who was given a lot to do by Pat Shanahan before running on well. Given Caribbean Sunset’s progressive profile and proven ability to handle fast ground, she looks outstanding each-way value at 12/1.
The Irish challenge is completed by Psalm and Lush Lashes. Psalm is evidently held in quite high regard at Ballydoyle and made an encouraging start to her career at Naas behind subsequent Group 3-winning stablemate Kitty Matcham under a considerate ride. Her saddle slipped on her seasonal reappearance at Leopardstown, when she was very well-fancied and her subsequent run in the French 1,000 Guineas, staying on well from the rear to finish sixth leaves her with a bit to find with the likes of Caribbean Sunset on collateral form. This is by no means out of the realms of possibility, given her clearly progressive profile. She is probably best suited by cut in the ground, however, and any rain would be in her favour. Were the rains to arrive, she could represent decent value at 10/1. Lush Lashes turns out here a fortnight after her Oaks run, where she looked to fail to stay the trip. However, whether she has the pace to win a Group 1 over a mile on fast ground must be highly doubtful. Though her cause would certainly be helped by rain, she is readily opposed. It is difficult to see why her trainer has elected to run her here when more suitable opportunities, most obviously Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh, exist.
The English 1,000 Guineas form is further represented by Nahoodh and Muthabara. Nahoodh was arguably unlucky not to win at Newmarket having encountered traffic problems when running on strongly inside the final furlong. On that form she rates a leading contender, but she subsequently disappointed at the Curragh and has sinced moved to the care of Mark Johnston. Though many will oppose her given her last run and subsequent trainer switch, those circumstances have been factored into her price, and were she to recapture her Newmarket form and the rain were to stay away, she could well make a mockery of her current price (10/1). Muthabara, trained by John Dunlop, won the Fred Darling at Newbury despite not having come in her coat. She then suffered a slight setback the day before the 1,000 Guineas. However, she nevertheless ran a decent race and further improvement can be expected from the Red Ransom filly. However, she probably doesn’t have the pace needed to win over a mile at the highest level, and shapes as a filly who will come into her own over further.
