The key to this race is how you rate Clanford Cliffs. Visually impressive yes, Time impressive yes, form impressive yes and figures impressive yes. Really he does tick all the boxes so its hard to pick faults. However to win a race in that manner on debut you have to be one of three things, either ready as you’ll ever be on debut, taking on weak opposition or a seriously high class prospect.
He really was backed as if defeat was out of the question on debut which draws you to the 3rd conclusion but we were sat here last year chewing over the same fat about Orizaba equally as impressive a year prior in the same Newbury maiden. However way you look at it, it really is hard to find a fault in the favourites armour but I couldn’t bring myself to back him at 2/1 in a race of this nature and I’m not entirely convinced he will follow that run up with one of equal measure. 2/1 and likely to shorten, I don’t feel like this is place to sit on the fence.
The fact is over the course of the year there will be several horses like this, most will be generated via gallops hype and stable yard buzzes. Then there will be vibes that ones improved out of all recognition. Other times you get clock stoppers, however the one thing that remains the same is they are always short prices, this may not surprise many but the fact is they are short prices when stepping up in grade and the key is regardless of how good you are you always need to keep improving and I’m struggling to find where this horse can find the improvement from. That’s my dilemma, I see a standard for others to reach which may mean Clanford Cliffs can win reproducing his debut effort but on another hand if something raises the bar I have to be convinced Clanford Cliffs can raise it again, and that’s where I’m not convinced. At 2/1 I have to be a layer rather than a player.
No Hubris and Air Chief Marshall are live players for reasons stated above but for me there are three horses in the line up who are the wrong price.
Red Jazz in my opinion has the best form in the book. A runaway winner of a race which worked out on debut he improved to beat a hard as nails opponent in Archers Road here on his second start. They in turn pulled clear of horse nice horses who have more than franked the form, whilst the 2nd Archers Road has proven himself very smart over the minimum distance. There can be no doubt that the 6f will improve Red Jazz and around 10/1 I very much want him batting for me.
The two at big odds are both 20/1 however. Firstly Xtension in my opinion was equally as impressive as Clanford Cliffs when winning on debut and having shown signs of greenness I can further expect improvement from him, something I don’t see in the favourite. Every year Clive Cox always finds a nice 2yo and seeing how he readily brushed aside some nice rivals in a fair maiden I do feel he could be smart. Unlike a lot of these, I do feel confident saying there is more to come and at long odds he is value.
However I predict a shock on paper but not a shock on facts here. RAINES CROSS is the wrong price at 20/1 for this and with a more fashionable trainer he would be half his odds. On debut at Bath my paddock notes read “nice strong type, still coming into his coat and growing to do, showing signs of inexperience but looks a nice prospect”. Sill despite apparent signs that there would be improvement for the run he absolutely dotted up. He was dropped in from a slow go but cruised through the pack and won in the style of something pretty special, he barely broke sweat. Its easy for some to say it was a weak race but I firmly disagree, the 2nd Avonvalley a winner itself has upheld the form in some strong maidens, whilst the 3rd Toga Tiger may have been deemed disappointing next time when beat at 4/11 but it was Tom Dascombe’s Hilary Needler winner Don’t Tell Mary which beat him so the form is again franked. Back in 4th was a ready winner next time in Stargaze whilst Pinnacle Lad in 6th has placed since. The 7th Avon River won next time before acquitting himself very pleasingly in the Woodcote, and 9th placed Timelord also has placed in two fair maidens. You can go back to 11th to find Quaker Parrot who won next time before running okay for a long way in the Hilary Needler.
Its easy to dismiss form without properly looking but those who stopped at the 3rd when beat at 4/11 next time made an error as they failed to notice what a smart race at Bath that was.
Now Raines Cross’ next start at Sandown in the National Stakes is the one I like. All of Hannon’s will be saying Monsieur Chevalier is not as good as Clanford Cliffs and I don’t doubt that, but despite being beaten 4L I do feel this horse was unlucky. He was slowly away and caught in a bit of a pocket when the pace quickened halfway. Stopping the tape 2f out, this horse probably has 8 or 9L to make up and you wouldn’t given him a chance of coming 3rd. Also at the furlong pole he still has plenty to do, but at the line he is catching hand over fist and with another furlong I can see this horse improving still. Another few strides and this horse would have been second and I have no doubt with another furlong he would have been a runaway winner.
I really feel this horse is underrated and his figures only put him 7lb off the favourite, that is not something I feel is impossible for this horse to find, and at 20/1 I am happy to find out.
A good e/w bet methinks.
