Coventry Stakes

They seemed to be comparing against record times on the BBC today, which is probably even worse.

Agree that if they're going to talk about the time, there should be an adjusted par time ready to go for the specific conditions of the race in question.
 
Galileo said:
Interesting to see if he comes over for the Phoenix Stakes and clash with a Coolmore hotpot. He will have to come over.
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That race has been a bit of a graveyard for impressive Coventry winners in recent years. Three Valleys, Henrythenavigator and Art Connoisseur spring to mind.

At the moment Hannon seems to be leaning towards the July stakes.
 
Early days for Canford Cliffs and there is plenty of oposition to come and progress.
 
Warbler said:
I realise that accleration isn't uniform to all combatants so to speak. But if Mordin is correct (which I doubt) then 2.3 secs for 3F's about means he's opened up 13.5L's on an older age winner of a listed race, the winner and runner up of which have gone again. That's a massive burst of speed and would seem to indicate that Rakaan, Barzan, Ant Music and Jehu have also beaten the older horses. The listed race itself looks to have been run at a brisk pace and even if the final time of this is quicker over the 6F's race distance, it's still asking too much for me to believe. Even if the listed runners paced themselves more venly, 2yo's shouldn't be eating that sort of gap into them. I can't find any evidence that the listed race was tactical, and so I'm left with two things

1: Mordin is wrong and his hand-timing and on-line stop watch are misleading him
2: There was a strong and blustery wind blowing which just happened to hit the listed runners head on for about half a minute

The only other explanation is that Canford Cliffs is a cut above these and if he replicates this run will simply run away from the field
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someone on the betfair forum timed it 1 second faster over the last 2f Warbler

talking of Mordin..did you see his speed figure starter article in the Weekender last week...his scale used was way out..no wonder he thinks handicappers are G1 horses...he had Class C just 1.2 seconds slower per mile than G1 :confused:
 
if you go to Ante post forum there is a big thread on CC..this was the bit I read

Very impressive visually which was backed up by the clock.
As Hughes didnt shake him up till the furlong marker he put up a very smart time & the response was immediate.
Covered the last 2 1/2 furllongs a second quicker than Border patrol.
16s is 2 big.
 
ItalianStallion said:
Early days for Canford Cliffs and there is plenty of oposition to come and progress.
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if he isn't the full article yet himself then he will make a 130+ horse next year..not many of them around..his speed figure today is higher than Teofilo's, New Approach & Shamardal...all big figure 2yo's..they didn't win as easily either when gaining their figures

i really hope he progresses at an average rate..only not doing that can stop him being the next big thing
 
EC1 said:
if he isn't the full article yet himself then he will make a 130+ horse next year..not many of them around..his speed figure today is higher than Teofilo's, New Approach & Shamardal...all big figure 2yo's..they didn't win as easily either when gaining their figures

i really hope he progresses at an average rate..only not doing that can stop him being the next big thing
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Speed figures aren't the gospel truth to the potential career of a horse but I see where you are coming from and doing some cross comparison with previous horse who've achieved the same level.

The horse will be incredibly hard to beat this year for sure although there are still more 2yos to be revealed over the coming months, I think the horse might not train on after a hard campaign this year as some leave their focus and progression on the racecourse as at 2yo and don't bring anything to the fore as a 3yo, nevertheless exciting times :)
 
EC1 said:
someone on the betfair forum timed it 1 second faster over the last 2f Warbler

talking of Mordin..did you see his speed figure starter article in the Weekender last week...his scale used was way out..no wonder he thinks handicappers are G1 horses...he had Class C just 1.2 seconds slower per mile than G1 :confused:
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I can see why he's generating so many strange figures and his conclusion that the going was slowing horses up by 2pts in the example he gave from Epsom had me non-plused. If anyone gets the base foundation wrong, then it doesn't matter what method you use, your rating will be flawed. I suspect the other thing that will emerge is that Mordin places much more faith in his own judgement than he should, and that he's going to wander off into realms of 'projection rating' by week 3. I personally don't trust myself, and therefore try to minimse any subjective input.

Basically a wobbly base allied with a heavy dose of subjective opinion equals a reciepe for minor chaos, and since one error in projection rating will compound others if that is then used as the errorneous base that others are assessed off, you can quickly spin out of control like a chain letter does. I'm not unconvinced that Mordin wouldn't be better served from starting afresh, as I'm sure some of his sample is badly contaminated by now
 
Warbler said:
I can see why he's generating so many strange figures and his conclusion that the going was slowing horses up by 2pts in the example he gave from Epsom had me non-plused. If anyone gets the base foundation wrong, then it doesn't matter what method you use, your rating will be flawed. I suspect the other thing that will emerge is that Mordin places much more faith in his own judgement than he should, and that he's going to wander off into realms of 'projection rating' by week 3. I personally don't trust myself, and therefore try to minimse any subjective input.

Basically a wobbly base allied with a heavy dose of subjective opinion equals a reciepe for minor chaos, and since one error in projection rating will compound others if that is then used as the errorneous base that others are assessed off, you can quickly spin out of control like a chain letter does. I'm not unconvinced that Mordin wouldn't be better served from starting afresh, as I'm sure some of his sample is badly contaminated by now
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I'm have been convinced that his speed figures at the top end are too close together for some years tbh Warbler..when he says a horse is a G1 horse its actually a listed horse..if he is using something like 1.3 seconds per mile difference between Class 3 and G1 it explains a lot

the problem is that he is doing a disservice to what he actually really believes in..by constantly saying horses are better than they are he is inviting ridicule on speed figure making in general..yes he gets it right every now and then..a stopped clock is right twice a day as well.
 
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looking at his pedigree he should get a mile at 3..what does the dosage say Steve?

I didn't really see him as a sprinter today at all..he just totally outclassed them in what looked like an exercise gallop..with a nice prize
 
EC1 said:
looking at his pedigree he should get a mile at 3..what does the dosage say Steve?

I didn't really see him as a sprinter today at all..he just totally outclassed them in what looked like an exercise gallop..with a nice prize
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Breeding (like every other factor) is just one tool to use to access a horse. Damson won the Queen Mary over 5 furlongs but was not the same horse when stepped up to a trip she was bred to get.

The main Group 1 he sounds like he will be aimed at is the Middle Park, which he looks well capable of winning. He looked today as if he could win at 5 furlongs so while breeding itself is a positive pointer, he as an individual would give me doubts about him improving for stepping up to seven furlongs and beyond.
 
I would say its quite a guessing game what happens with CC...we were in this same situation with three valleys..that went the wrong way.

He was a cheap buy..maybe he is just a very mature 2yo...who knows?..I wouldn't like to nail my colours to the wall tbh..work in progress..I would love him to progress though.
 
His dosage figures would point to the Derby!!! Admittedly there;s a dearth of figures for it to be reliable, but what is there is spot on 12F's
 
Three Valleys's dosage total was high enough to be deemed meaningful, IIRC, and suggested he'd stay the St Leger trip (so I plunged in at very long odds for the Triple Crown) yet even Stephen was unconvinced he'd stay.

What was his longest winning distance in the US? 10f?
 
What are the opinions on his proportion and the ability to develop into a Derby contender, to me he has the physique of a sprinter and potentially grow into a decent 7f/8f.

CanfordCliffs_090515_Nwby3.jpg

CanfordCliffs_090515_Nwby2.jpg

CanfordCliffs_090515_Nwby1.jpg
 
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Goes for the Papin in France next.....bit of an odd choice but sounds like they are looking at the Morny.
 
Would be worried they're looking down in trip at the moment rather than going up steadily.

5.5f though maybe looking to pick up easy money while they can?
 
Put off by the supplementary fee, I think. And put off the July Stakes by the penalty he'd carry. So off to France it is, despite being half-owned by the head of the BHA.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Put off by the supplementary fee, I think. And put off the July Stakes by the penalty he'd carry. So off to France it is, despite being half-owned by the head of the BHA.
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The second entry fee was only around 8,000...sure he would cover that easily by placing.
 
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