Crossroads approaching.

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
24,240
I'm gradually arriving at the conclusion that it's time to pack it in.

New Year might be the right time. Get the King George and Welsh National meetings out of the way and find something else to occupy my time, energy and emotions from 01 January.

Over the last 45 or so years I've been happy to let our sport be my number one distraction from the trials of life but now it's probably becoming a trial itself and life is more of a distraction from it.

For probably at least 30 years whenever people ask me my hobby or favourite sport, etc, I've always said either "horseracing" or "studying form" (which usually then requires further explanation.

They almost invariably follow up with the question along the lines of whether I make it pay.

"I wouldn't do it if I couldn't make it pay," has always been my answer. There then usually follows a short conversation about why I don't bet professionally. It's short because once I start talking in terms of single-figure percentage profit on outlay I can see their eyes glaze over. The minutiae of the game are of no interest to them.

They just want to know do I win big. I don't. But for years I was winning steady, ugly even.

I always said if I couldn't make it pay I'd give it up.

I'm getting to that stage. I've now had a number of losing seasons, Flat and NH, in succession and the current jumps season is going the same way.

My ratings generally are doing fine. I'll happily pitch my ratings against any commercial operation with all their mechanical intellect in support. But I seem to have lost the knack of picking winners.

A couple of years back, I had a ridiculously healthy betting balance. I had allowed myself holidays paid for from the bank account I use exclusively for my betting. I had paid deposits on cars from the same account. And still had a very healthy balance, confident a couple of months would replenish the funds.

I've now dipped below ten figures for the first time and it is the result of a longer-term decline that's showing no signs of halting, let alone reversing.

For some reason I can make the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals pay but right now that's about it. The big Saturday handicaps, for so many years my bread and butter, are seeing me haemhorraging resources.

I'm still comfortably in front but I'm not blind to what's happening. When I get out I'm determined to get out while I'm ahead.

I'm getting by in life on my modest work pension (ably supported by Mrs O's) and I will never allow things to get to the stage where I fritter that. I'll take time out to thing about how best to maximise my existing tank.

But I'm afraid my punting days are very much numbered.
 
Crossroads indeed DO, big decision that. Would you stay involved for "fun" in the game ? Or just take no interest in it at all ?? I dont bet , but i still love watching the "sport ".
 
Carl said:
Crossroads indeed DO, big decision that. Would you stay involved for "fun" in the game ? Or just take no interest in it at all ?? I dont bet , but i still love watching the "sport ".
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After typing the original post I popped down to the shops just to get one or two wee things to make sure we were fixed for refreshments should the weather threat materialise and this was what was on my mind. Do I keep studying just to keep my eye in or make a clean break.

The honest answer is that I don't know.
 
Fair enough, matey. Not sure what to say, apart from that you would be a huge loss to the forum as your always stimulating the debates. If you decide to move on, fair play to you, you'll be remembered!
 
I don't think I'll be leaving the forum. I'll keep following the debates and I'll still be studying the form ahead of Cheltenham and Aintree and offering an opinion. I just won't be punting much and probably won't be tipping anything outside the big festival meetings. I'll maybe stick the odd fiver each-way on something for the sake of an interest but the serious stuff will be finished.
 
Is it just beacause you are not “picking winners” lately or has the whole business of studying form become a chore rather than an enjoyable pastime?

I know you concentrate on the higher end of racing but there is so much racing now, it seemed much easier when the valuable races were spread throughout the week instead of it all being crammed into Saturday.

My own interest in the sport has diminished over the years. I rarely watch live racing these days, manage to see what I want in replays without all the crap that the various TV channels insist on giving us.

As has been said above your input would be sorely missed.
 
Tbh Des I find it a strange because its so so different to the way I live. I've seen the pictures you put up of Orchid Towers ,which looks like a house I'd only dream about. Yet punting wise from what you've told me your stakes aren't that big in comparison to mine and mine aren't really considered that big in serious circles. I've always got spare cash and waste/enjoy a lot of it eating out and generally entertaining me and the Mrs but in fairness I could fit my house in your garage most likely. I don't need to top up my living but the more I make the more I spend/waste I just enjoy betting now (that wasn't always the case ) and whether I do my nuts or I'm having a good time of things I have found a nice balance so it doesn't have a financial effect, or rather losing doesn't, winning has a positive effect. Whether or not your making money from it the only question you should ask is do you enjoy it still if not then its time to pack it in for a while. Nothings permanent but change it doesn't have to be a final decision. You're not committed to writing it all up every week and producing your figures every week for all and Sundry. Reduce your work load maybe you enjoy it more. If its pissing you off atm take a break. Perhaps you come back to it, maybe you don't I had about 2 years out once something I thought I'd never do because at one time I loved it all too much. When I came back to it I felt completely detached from the form ....truth be told it only took about a month to feel fully immersed again and in truth I ended up with my biggest winning season ever off the back of it.

Don't put pressure on yourself mate have a little break see how you feel do other things and see if they float your boat if not this game will still be here for a few years yet ( he says hopefully). Or even try a fresh approach throw the you're normal way of doing things out of the window and find another angle that might reinvigorate your enthusiasm I know it's more or less sacrilegious to say that to a figures guy but there are other ways of finding winners.

As you like, D.O but in my opinion I give you credit for the work you put in and sharing on a regular basis. On that basis alone your a top bloke. Secondly the candidly honest way in which you can say this isn't working anymore and that your actually not making it pay again is a credit to you. Thirdly Des having seen your home, your attitude on this forum, retirement plans, and just from what I've grasped in general in the short space of time I've been on here I think you've at least won in the game of life mate and that's far more important.

All the best D.O whatever you decide.
 
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Good luck with whatever you do,but you have to keep your eye in.
You could always buy Kilmarnock to keep you interested in life.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Is it just beacause you are not “picking winners” lately or has the whole business of studying form become a chore rather than an enjoyable pastime?

I know you concentrate on the higher end of racing but there is so much racing now, it seemed much easier when the valuable races were spread throughout the week instead of it all being crammed into Saturday.

My own interest in the sport has diminished over the years. I rarely watch live racing these days, manage to see what I want in replays without all the crap that the various TV channels insist on giving us.

As has been said above your input would be sorely missed.
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I do think it's a bit of both, Colin.

I reckon if the bank balance was still growing the way it used to I'd be happy to keep putting the work in but now I feel I'm wasting my time.

Not for the first time recently I got a phone call last week from one of my brothers who gets my email but who tends to bet his own judgment anyway (because he's been to the bookies before he gets my stuff) which started, "Jeez you must have made a fortune today..."

He'd seen that I'd top-rated Walk In The Mill (joint with Call It Magic which I put on the longshot thread) and second-top rated Warriors Tale (behind Kilcrea Vale but with a 'p' whereas KV had a '?'). He couldn't have looked at my list of bets. He'd assumed I'd backed both and doubled them.

It's become quite typical of the way things have been going. The ratings are working well but I'm backing top-rated when they lose and not backing them when they win. I used to be good at working out when to back and not to back them. It's the selection processes that are the problem and they are 100% down to me. I'm maybe over-thinking some races and under-thinking others and that is what I used to do quite well.

Beating the SP has boosted profits and minimised losses over the years but now it's really only doing the latter. The losses are still there. Getting better than the true odds is always key to making money at betting but not if your horses aint winning at all!
 
I can only hope you reconsider for selfish purposes, as your input is top notch. However, own personal happiness must come first, and if you're not happy then who are we to say reconsider.

Best of luck with whatever you decide to do, hope you still post on the forum mind.
 
Danny said:
You're not committed to writing it all up every week and producing your figures every week for all and Sundry.
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Thanks, Danny. Among all your kind comments the above stood out.

It stood out because I would say it was only once I started typing out my figures and thoughts that I went from keeping nicely in front to experiencing a serious rise in gains. Sharing those figures and thoughts was just my nature.

I know I shouldn't, but I sometimes let it bug me if I feel other people might have had a bad day following my figures or thoughts or bets. I know we're all grown up and nobody is putting a gun to anybody's head to bet anything but just as I get a deal of satisfaction dismantling a tricky handicap for others I do get negative feelings when things go wrong. As I say, it's just my nature. The only thing I tend to keep to myself is the prospect of getting the prices before I release my stuff. I know people on here or on my mailing list can move markets in away I can't [directly].
 
Sounds to me like you’re making a potential decision on short term results. What you need to work out is whether the process is right. If something has changed that is making the process poor then it’s certainly worth taking a pull and coming back once you’ve re-evaluated and had a break.

If you still believe the process to be good then I’d say carry on as results will come it’s just a case of bank roll management during this period.
 
Reading your Crossroads approaching post one or two things spring to my mind. Firstly New Year is as good a time as any if you're going to do things differently (or not at all as might be the case). I'm in the same boat as you re the distraction - wish mine was only 45 years! Next though is the "wouldn't do it if I couldn't make it pay" which to gamblers seems obvious however if you'd played, say, golf all your adult life your enjoyment would be the justification for a considerable outlay every year. The point being do you have to make it pay to get your enjoyment from racing? Of course, some find that gambling is a way to the poor house but that's not what I'm advocating. I've had days where I've had a few 50p ew bets (last of the big spenders, that's me) and thoroughly enjoyed the fun of the day. You may decide that your punting days are numbered but does that have to mean that you stop enjoying the sport?

Good luck in whatever you decide to do, but whatever decision you arrive at it will be the correct one.

I agree 100% with the other comments re you sharing your knowledge, many thanks for having done it.
 
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SP Only said:
Sounds to me like you’re making a potential decision on short term results. What you need to work out is whether the process is right. If something has changed that is making the process poor then it’s certainly worth taking a pull and coming back once you’ve re-evaluated and had a break.

If you still believe the process to be good then I’d say carry on as results will come it’s just a case of bank roll management during this period.
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Yes. I've already been modifying my stakes for a wee while and/or backing each-way when I'd normally reserve that for proper longshots.

The decision isn't really based on short term results though. I've been conscious of sliding profits for at least two full years (amounting to several thousand pounds).

A bit of me wonders if it's the increasing importance of the festivals and mega-handicaps. The form really works there and I tend to do very well in the handicaps at the festivals. The only logical reason I can come up with is that in some of the good Saturday handicaps too many well-handicapped horses are keeping their powder on the dry side for an even bigger target and it's the ones genuinely targeting the Saturday races that are doing the business. I'll have these ones on my short/long-lists for the races but not alighting on them for betting purposes.
 
2017diary said:
however if you'd played, say, golf all your adult life your enjoyment would be the justification for a considerable outlay every year. The point being do you have to make it pay to get your enjoyment from racing?
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This is a discussion I have occasionally with Mrs O. She'll comment now and again about how much time I spend with my nose in the form and/or watching recordings. My polite reply is to ask her how much her Rock Choir, art, meeting Orchidettte / pals for coffee etc costs her in terms of time and money and that at least my hobby doesn't cost me money. Golf has been mentioned since I planned to take it up once I retired but a back problem in the last year has hindered that. I play the brothers at snooker once a month, which amounts to a full day out as we 'do' lunch as well and that can cost money but the full day out might cost a piddling £15. That's nothing compared with what football supporters put out following their team, especially a successful team. And golf, if taken seriously, can also cost a packet. And it's all money they'll never get back.

I've always taken the view that my hobby makes me money rather than costs me money and I don't really want that to change!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Getting better than the true odds is always key to making money at betting but not if your horses aint winning at all!
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Seems you've identified your problem in that one short para. DO.
Maybe you could skip obssessing about prices for a while, and concentrate your energies more on the latter?
Won't sit well with many on here, but I do speak from personal experience.
GL for the future, whatever you decide.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes. I've already been modifying my stakes for a wee while and/or backing each-way when I'd normally reserve that for proper longshots.

The decision isn't really based on short term results though. I've been conscious of sliding profits for at least two full years (amounting to several thousand pounds).

A bit of me wonders if it's the increasing importance of the festivals and mega-handicaps. The form really works there and I tend to do very well in the handicaps at the festivals. The only logical reason I can come up with is that in some of the good Saturday handicaps too many well-handicapped horses are keeping their powder on the dry side for an even bigger target and it's the ones genuinely targeting the Saturday races that are doing the business. I'll have these ones on my short/long-lists for the races but not alighting on them for betting purposes.
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Appears you understand why the process may be failing at certain points which is half the battle surely. You just need to make the adjustments and you’ll be in business.
 
Like most things in life, take a break, relax and recharge yourself.

Get a new hobby, let's say gardening and get a balance in your life between new things, life with Mrs O and make time for things that make you happy e.g. Cars and holidays.

Racing isn't going to disappear and come back to it fresh if it peaks your interest.

I hope not just for you but for all on here that they can enjoy racing and the beauty of horses without the need to monetise things to determine an interest in the sport.

Good luck in whatever you do next Mo and thanks for everything that I have learned from you on here.
 
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