Csf Trial

Bet 5/50

2.30 Kempton - 6pts Kauto Star/Exotic Dancer

One of the rare occasions where the most likely outcome is also the value outcome.
 
Originally posted by Melendez@Dec 26 2007, 12:24 PM
Bet 5/50

2.30 Kempton - 6pts Kauto Star/Exotic Dancer

One of the rare occasions where the most likely outcome is also the value outcome.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure what the angle was there. Arguably you were a shade unlucky but that's not really the point. Why did you think this was a "value" bet?
 
Actually, I agree, there was no value angle by the time of the race. At time of posting, MWDS was joint 2nd favourite for the race, if anything a little stronger than ED, on the basis that "he could be anything" whereas ED was nearly half his price to get placed and in the forecast with KS on betfair, but the fact he had been beaten so regularly by KS led people to look for alternatives in the win market. Sadly by race time, probably due to Each Way bets, Exotic Dancer was probably at the point where any value had been sucked from the csf.
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Dec 17 2007, 12:53 PM
Trust me, my paddock notes on this beast are accurate - she's incredible! She's not just big, she's powerful and very well built. She looks like a gelding and has a real "come and get me" attitude - swaggers around the paddock.
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Shads

Did you notice that Ian "Barty" Bartlett refered to Kruguyrova at least twice as "the little mare" in his commentary at Newbury today?
 
Indeed I did - I was watching through my bins, shouting "she's not little, she's fecking massive, you tosser!!!" Several eye witnesses can confirm!!!

FWIW, I think that Paddy cocked up. The mare outjumped Big Buck's at every fence and could have stretched him easily if he'd have kicked her on from the bend. The Nicholls yoke with its indifferent jumping and not travelling any better than her would not have got to her had he gone on when he had the chance.
 
In actual fact, Bartlett is crap as a commentator. I forget what else he came out with but he peddled at least two other bits of utter crap this afternoon over the tannoy. He's also far too fond of his own voice - mind you I'll have to tell Luke that he doesn't have to yell over the loudspeaker, that's the point of it....
 
Colin, the mare is certainly large and rangey - she also looks more like a gelding. She is pretty tall, have you ever seen her in the flesh?
 
I heard it in commentary whilst at Doncaster and raised an eyebrow :brows: . This was something Graham Goode excelled at.... 'huuuuge horse , giiiant striiide ' er no graham its not that big at all....For some reason he always had a habit of making hype horses 'big' in his commentaries.
 
I backed Kruguyrova today and while she jumps at speed I thought she was a little one-paced on the run-in.
 
Ideally she wants further, Betsmate - but I feel she should have won today anyway by kicking on and using her high cruising speed allied with her brilliant jumping. I really do think that had Paddy kicked on he would have stretched Big Buck's enough that he wouldn't have gotten to her; he was starting to niggle him from the home turn and she should have taken advantage. Still, she ran a decent race and is a lovely horse.

Colin, strangely enough, I find it necessary to actually look at a horse before pronouncing over its size.
 
I listened to a live radio commentary today where Krugyrova was referred to as small and later watched a replay where the same comments were made. Big Buck's is presumably called BIG for a reason! - he certainly looked bigger than her today

However, she looks rangy and long - as so many jumping mares are - and I can see that geldings might have filled out more than her since the start of the season. It don't matter tiddly squat anyway, so long as she can do the biz.

Trainer did say as reported in the RP today that she might not appreciate the ground. Sorry to see her beat. Would need to watch it again to see if the ride was to blame... doubt it though, looked today to me as if she was beat on merit, but ground might change that. To me she has that shape and action which goes faster on good ground
 
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