Daily picks.

Have to say i'm amazed at the price of Two Turtle doves in the 1st race, has a 10lb pull with Dancing Welcome taking into account the apprentice allowance should get a fair bit closer but over 20/1 now!
Also the price of Country Road looks much too big on betfair at the moment 15/1!
 
I may start looking at big drifters on those that look to short at early pricesif i get some time, just randomly one day at swell i was looking on betfair and noticed 3/4 i had marked off that had doubled in price.Just before off they were big gambles,maybe worth looking into for a short period.
 
Look at that Wigham horse the other day, opened up at 2/1 drifted out to 15/2 before they came in for it, backed back into 11/2 on the off!
 
Had nothing to beat the one i was worried about didn't run as that had run slightly slower than frequency on the same day,the second fav ran .75 slower than towy boy on the same day and that only won off 60 so really there didn't look any dangers unless something took it on!Good this aw its certainly where all the value is.
 
I don't back 1/3 shots anyway,i thought it maybe 4/6 couldn't back it at that price i wouldn't say it was a cert if there's no pace as its not necessarily any quicker than the second and third favs over shorter.It's all rubbish the card thats me done for the day,just doing saturdays card now as i've done tomorrows.
 
A maiden after 19 runs but sole run over this c/d in a time as quick as anything has run in tomorrows race had winners archie rice now off 76,whodunnit won off 62 now rated 70 and also another of tomorrows runners prince of thebes well behind.Is better off with prince of thebes puts it well in with idol deputy and various formlines through the horses mentioned you could through interpretation have it on a par with the fav.Hard to back horses not repeating form,but that one run over c/d makes it a 7/1 shot in this race.
 
SlimChance said:
Dirty filthy Skimming
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:lol:

Guilty as charged, m'lud.

My defence plea would be that trading isn't really a felony crime -- more a minor misdemeanour. :)
Trading is the only game in town if you want consistent profits.
Get yourself "greened-up" at every opportunity ! :whistle:
 
icebreaker said:
:lol:

Guilty as charged, m'lud.

My defence plea would be that trading isn't really a felony crime -- more a minor misdemeanour. :)
Trading is the only game in town if you want consistent profits.
Get yourself "greened-up" at every opportunity ! :whistle:
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If greening out is the aim I have no problem with it. What I frown upon is people who lay back bets when they go shorter because they can. That way you never maximise your wins and reduce what little edge you have. If I were backing Gugilo's selections and greening the book, I would not even look at the result of the race because it would be completely irrelevant and if you laid back the winner it could throw your discipline off track.
 
Anyone who's kept track of the winners since i put the trades and ews on here will know the profits on the ews far outway the trades.Like i said before i put up the trades as i know they will always be in profit,the problem with the ews is i have maybe 7/8 bets aday and maybe not post on here for a couple of days as its a major miracle even getting a bet on.I reckon there's probably a 25-30% strike rate on the ews not including places,some of the trades that have been winners on here i havn't even been able to bet.:blink:
 
That's the problem. I know all of your selections are over priced when you post but I'm not getti accounts clamped to back them. I'd make a profit but I'd be unable to get a decent bet on at best price when I really want to go to town on something. Bookmakers HATE punters to pull their pants down consistently with these overnight prices.
 
I never saw your posts earlier slim yep returned big sp in the end very late drift,luckily.:cool:Keep it going icebreaker nice to see someone consistently winning,the aw races it's pretty easy to find the horses that will be bet,sometimes i try to be a bit to clever but from november till april should be able to carry on in the same vain.:ninja:
 
I must've had 20 hills accounts over the years,it gets boring now as i phone two people and they're getting £100 on with firms but with quite a lot of them winning lately it's either no bets or other firms at shorter prices.
Thats ok on the aw though as quite a lot are miles out so taking shorter prices doesn't mean there's still no value,i'm just not used to doing it.
I can get bets on in shops no problem just not hills as i'm banned,but i know a few smaller books i can have bets with no problem,i even know the managers i almost got one sacked the one day she took a bet off me a place 6 on the horses.I was doing it as an experiment she let me do them for 3 months never had a touch,then one day had $400 on a slip returned 25k.:lol:
She almost lost her job and never spoke to me for a year,a freak dividend compared to the ppot.
 
:lol:

The only way for Hills to get rid of your business for certain would be to have you shot, it would be more cost effective for them too...



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SlimChance said:
That's the problem. I know all of your selections are over priced when you post but I'm not getti accounts clamped to back them.
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You're absolutely right !
Experience has taught me that bookmakers detest anyone consistently beating the SP price -- even if the selections are losers. They seem to hate punters who avail of their ( the bookmaker's) overlays even more than they dislike winning punters. Backing overpriced horses is the quickest way to get your online account gubbed or severely limited.
It's for that reason I back the selections on Betfair or Smarkets; I don't want my remaining accounts shut down.
 
icebreaker said:
You're absolutely right !
Experience has taught me that bookmakers detest anyone consistently beating the SP price -- even if the selections are losers. They seem to hate punters who avail of their ( the bookmaker's) overlays even more than they dislike winning punters. Backing overpriced horses is the quickest way to get your online account gubbed or severely limited.
It's for that reason I back the selections on Betfair or Smarkets; I don't want my remaining accounts shut down.
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Yeah that's the ONLY way to do it. That's my chunk at 8.8 btw. GET INVOLVED :lol:
 
:D
I don't think it's going to happen today with Land Hawk, tbh. Too much moolah queueing on the Lay side.
I've thrown in the towel at 12.0 for a break-even after commission.
 
icebreaker said:
:D
I don't think it's going to happen today with Land Hawk, tbh. Too much moolah queueing on the Lay side.
I've thrown in the towel at 12.0 for a break-even after commission.
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Sometimes you have to put your hand between your legs and remind yourself what's there... No move from 8.8 here.

Faith :D


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