Daily picks.

Pavershooz maybe backed today and there are a couple of reasons to back this up,the horses hasn't run since may but all its best form and wins have been in june/july.This has obviously been deliberate the break,noel wilson managed to get hypnosis to win after two years at donny last week and similar to pavershooz was tumbling down the weights.The trainers had 2 out of hois last nine runners win and a place and perhaps more significantly the jockey.Brian toomey has a really good strike rate for a jock that doesn't get many rides and showing over £30 profit on total rides i don't usually bother with stats and this just means they seem to be trying with this today and i can see a gamble.Toomey had the 6 rides on the flat thise season and already one winner i think he's in profir for nearly every trainer he's ridden for which seems quite incredible so at least points to it trying as opposed to one of its rides this season.

Pavershooz 12/1 boyles ew and to trade.
 
Hmmmm..........statistics and damned lies.

Brian Toomey two winners from 23 rides on the flat in the last five seasons.

During that period he has ridden for 21 different trainers, he rode a winner for Laura Mongan during the 2008 season and won for Kevin Ryan this season. He is in profit for those two but not for the rest.

Many more rides over jumps in the same period; 28 wins from 285 runners and he is in profit for 12 trainers, and many, many more for whom he is in the red.
 
I leave stats to the number crunchers who think they can win by using stats,i never use them just saw brian toomey thought unusal booking clicked on his name came up with this over the last 12 months.Thats all i was looking for someone who can ride in comparison to other jocks in the race over the last 12 months.

Last 12 Months Stats
Course Type Runners Wins Places Win Prize Strike Rate P/L to £1 Stake
Flat (Turf) 6 1 0 £2,590 16.67% £2.00
Flat (All Weather) 2 0 0 0.00% £-2.00
National Hunt Flat 16 2 5 £3,322 12.50% £-2.00
Hurdles 83 9 15 £18,177 10.84% £43.03
Chases 9 0 0 0.00% £-9.00
TOTAL 116 12 20 £24,089 10.34% £32.03
 
Ascot 4.0 dorback 7/1 and oil strike 11/1 boyles.

Dorback was one of the biggest eyecathchers of the season behind novellen lad switched three or four times looked the best horse in the race in what was a very competitive affair.Next time out completely flat maybe a dodgepot but this this is a weaker race than that and if repeats that run and gets the breaks would be the most likely winner.
Oilstrike was in that race also he was also stopped and wouldv'e been a lot closer and although not as good a run as dorback that run would still give him a big chance as this race is weaker.
 
Think that showed how far wrong the handicapper got firebeam ;),it was minimum of mid eighties with the older horses on debut run!!
 
If the times are to be believed fom ascot then the race won by lightning cloud was very quick there only 1.41 slower than standard as opposed to the earlier sprint won by kanaf in the older sprint handicap.The 6f race was 1.34 above standard kanaf rated 89 tomorrow lightning clouds off 80 against the older horses top rated big noise is off 80.
Big noise was a non runner i put it on here when entered at liecester,dr scargill seems to save these races at liecester for big noise,started the season on 87 now on 80.The handicap is open to horses rated 61-80 so its the first time the horse has been able to run in this low a handicap since august 2007.Last time out at newmarket eased but only beaten 3 1/2ls on ground that was deteriorating and couldv'e finished a lot closer,tomorrows c/d record is first off 89 in the month of july and last season 4th of 90 beaten 4 1/2ls.If the horse reacts well to first time pieces,looks the danger to the favourite and 12/1 would be a big price in a race where a few look underpriced.Tom durcan although not one of my fav jocks tbh has won and been second on it as well.
 
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6.50 bath reflessione 16/1 s.james to trade.

Lowest ever mark for reflessione(65)on turf, yet the last time he ran on the flat was here last september off 70 in a similar race when second to barons spy off 70.He finished ahead off compton spirit in that race yet comptons priced up at 6s and reflessione is even better off in the weights,also a second over the same c/d to sometsuke shows the c/d suits.He also on that occasion finished infront of kylallachy storm by 21/2ls today priced at 4s.In pieces today which he's also won in looks miles over priced on those runs and i will be surprised if there isn't money for him.I may even have a little win as well,but mainly to trade,it's more an 8/1 shot and everything looks poorly handicapped in the race as well.
 
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Not a bad days work,chucked in the fcast for good measure as well and traded out at 8s!!!!They stood out a mile,will have to keep an eye on that ascot run as the time was quick.
 
3.10 wannabe king 16/1 sporting bet.

Nothing much stands out for me today so small bet on wannabe king.
Looked unlucky at york stuck out the back going well and although beaten 7ls with a run and not eased wouldv'e been a couple of lengths behind dance and dance.Thats makes the 16s to big on that run should be nearer 12s especially when the previous run to that at sandown had next time winners julieanas winning the hunt cup,dunn'o and directorship behind.I think its more likely one of the unexposed ones will win but theres 3/4 so just had a small bet on this.
 
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Bit weather dependent this as pegasus bay hasn't got any soft ground form i've backed it ew and will trade on it if ground stays as it is at present,if it changes will trade out to get stake back.

Pegasus bay has now slipped to its lowest turf mark since actually running two of its better races over this c/d.Back to back runs in 2009 over tomorrows c/d coming 3rd off 77,then following that up with a win off 78,tomorrow runs off 71.It's been a non trier on at least 3 occasions out of its last 6 runs,the run behind big bay and ahern just dropping it out plus finishing twice with double handfuls.Those runs have been in far better races than tomorrows and if reproduces its past windsor runs i can see this going off fav,looking briefly at the times in the race over the c/d its also clocked the quickest time by some way.Probably end up laying the trade off with all the rain about, but it won't be 7/1 if the ground does stay gd/fm be more like 7/2 4/1
 
Five hearts ran in a decent maiden last season and that form is the best in the yarmouth race but on seasonal debut was last of 8 thats why the massive price.Last season was 5th of 19 behind make a dance (86)the third elmaam just recently won off 76 and the 4th saskias dream was recently third off 70.That was only her debut run so she potentially looks at least as good as todays runners,if you excuse her seasonal debut she wouldv'e been 4/1 in this maiden not 16s.The day of that maiden there were two on the card quschi won the other but was .61 slower,qushis now rated 86 that beat choral rated 77 and also in behind in third was joviality thats now rated 105.The time comparisons make good reading and i will be surprised if there isn't a bit of money for her unless of course they are going for a mark!! Will be interesting to see if there's any money for her so trying a trade and will be watching this race closely as potentially could be a reasonable one to follow for handicaps.
 
Almost full house a pity,but a nice race drifyed like a barge just before the off!!!!!:lol:
 
Just a small interest for me looks a bet to nothing ew last time out finishing 2ls infront of totheendoftheearth,that won a handicap off 72 next time out.The time at sailsbury compared favourably with quite afew races,the 7f maiden being 4.94 above standard compared to leviathans 89 run over a mile 5.95 above standard and the 6f race won by dead cool off 68 that was slow by 5.89.Todays race won't take much winning and although there are potentially better runners in the race just with the soft ground form makes it worth a small bet.Don't like the combination of james useless and dane o'neil tbh thats why i've only had a small bet.:thumbsdown:
 
Got flu at the momewnt in july down to our great weasther so havn't been doing much,so havn't done much form.Two small things i looked at when doing a little bit of form last night.

Ascot 3.15
Today if the ground is similar to its win at newmarket will take all the beating,runs off 98 but looks on the verge of group company.The standard winning time was only .12 slower than brae hill rated 94 over a furlong shorter and albaasil carried 2 pound more hacking up.That mark of 98 looks more like 100+ with the older horses.

9/4 general.
 
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