Daily picks.

Hsas the look of a gamble this race haajes hasn't run over 5fs on soft ground since october last year when first off 83,infact his last four runs over 5fs on soft ground has run 1/83,5/84,3/85 in this race last year and 2/80.Today is off all time low of 69 with the claim inprobably one of the weakest races its ever run in and with midgeley having two winners yesterday can see a right gamble.A very small ew and trade for me.

HAAJES 15/2 HILLS.

8/1 sjames
 
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Alsaabils race they drew clear 6 seconds above stabdard false form,i still believe alsaabil to be near group class and on better ground i will be backing it again.


Barney mcgrew 20/1 hills

International debut 11/1 ppower 365

Will back both of these ew barney mcgrew ran an eyecatching run at york over 5fs off 100,now down another 10 pounds he also ran 3rd behind prohibit and invincible ash at meydan in february.Also followed that up with a 4th to war artist beaten 1 1/2ls in totally different class handicaps to these,so there's no doubting his ability is still there.At 20/1 can't refuse backing a horse with that ability and the stiff 6fs at ponte may suit.
International debut not well handicapped but very consistent and stays around this mark,only a pound higher than when 7/2 fav beaten 3/4l by flipando(94)over c/d.Has run at ponte three times twice second the run against flipando and a second to castles in the sky off 89 both slightly better races than this.He has also been placed over 5fs at ponte just showing how stiff the track is as the stiff 6fs for him is perfect as he gets 7fs as well.
Backing them both ew and trying a couple of trades if international debut was 7/2 against flipando 11/1 must be value and a trade.
 
Internationaldebut is a horse that fascinates me -a sprinter by High Chapparal.I remember place laying him for everything in my Betfair account one winter Saturday at Lingfield when he was drawn widest of all-was never sighted in the race.Unfortunately I repeated the trick a few times since and paid the price.
 
Lots of ability but can't say its a dodgepot as it runs well in decent race,when your stuck around the high 80s the races are very competitive plus new horses coming along.A bit like webbow competes in the best handicaps but seems to run better against better horses as opposed to being dropped in class.
 
Caledonian princess runs at her favourie track tomorrow 3 runs over c/d and two wins plus another win over the 5fs there and on this seasonal debut a 4th.Ross atkinson has ridden it 5 times and won on it the three times its won here,he hasn't ridden it since last september,tomorrow runs off 74 a pound higher than its last win here beating far better horses rsted in the 80s and 90s.Last time out ran at bath with blinkers and wandered around,tomorrow they're off as when she won her three races,drawn 4 if back to her best this is a far weaker race than her seasonal debut when 4th.That race is already working out well with,living it large and the second diamond charlie winning again both last week off 84 and 80.If she's at her best 12/1 should be neare 6/1.I also like another in this race but waiting to see the books in the morning.
 
I also like bianva de medici poor draw today but think it maybe one to follow only having the six runs on turf,its one run at newbury really stands out.The winner saddlers bend is now off 90,the second caelis has won since is now off 72 bianca de medici conceded 18 pounds to it that day,the 4th valencha looks an improver beating russian rave then running second to golden delicious in a hot race and then the 5th chokurei won since second off 81 bianca gave it 16 pounds in that race.Looks one to follow for the future with improveent to come,although looking at its form still hard to see what its right distance is.

12/1 tote,bet,sjames.
 
newmarket 2.15 salford art 4/1 lads 7/2 general.

Salford art on debut ran a decent time on ground with a bit of juice which newmarket looking at the times today should be ok.Behind free verse on debut was eased and yet that maiden was only .17 slower than sirius prospects(82) 3yr old handicap later on the card.With natural improvement you'd expect salford art to be around that mark with the 3yr olds tomorrow gets in off 80.Just incase the ground dries out i will be trading on this as well as a win bet,lazy bet but to much racing to trawl through.If the form students latch onto this and there's not a saturday punters gamble on fallon this could go off very short.It does look between the top two but the windsor run from salford art i the best bit of form,if you look at newbury race today all the highs in the fillies listed race were in the last 4/5 places so a line can be put through free verses run.That was false form winner apart.
 
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Lockantanks last ran at kempton off 76 tomorrow off 75 that race he was drawn in the one box raced wide and managed to lead a furlong out just to get collared.That was a far better race than tomorrows everything was in the high 70s and 80s and lockantanks is off top weight even off 9-11 he still has some of the quicker times in the race.The price looks like its based on its turf form which is nowhere near as good as aw form this looks a 7/1 shot to me with the unexposed 3yr olds in the race,quite difficult to judge any of teir runs.Fourths to fanditha and follow the flag at lingfield and one of those races in a decent time,on those runs is definitely overpriced,have backed it ew and will be trading on it as well.
Yesterdays runner made negligible profit,kieran against dane o' neil enough said giving fallon 6ls head start.:blink:
 
Returned the price i said it shouldv'e been but won nothing on the race even with reasonable trade,still think although off its highest ever mark may be worth following as all its decent runs have come in fast run races.
 
4.50 ithoughtiswasover 8/1 paddy,stan probably others in morning.

The handicap in which ithoughtitwaslover(89) was in lto will show the first four to be well ahead of their marks,the time of the race was almost identical to that as the following race won by averroes(94) on the same card.Both of those races were run at a decent pace and the form is solid the older handicap was full of horses in nineties,this probably means that horses such as ithoughtitwasalover are at least 10 pounds in with these older horses.
The race looks like worth following over a cliff especially the first four from that race,tomorrow two big negatives back 2fs and drawn 14 but still have to have at least a token bet as really if drawn well this should be a 4/1 shot and thats purely down to the fact the fav could be anything.
 
A few additional bets present danger 5/4 with corals 365 may turn out to be disappointing but really caught my eye last year on soft ground,typical dascombe horse as looked a bit special will see today if its gone backwards.
I will give it two chances including today to prove itself,after clocking a time only a second slower than quest for success last season at hamilton..

5/4 corals,365.

Phair winter couldv'e easily beaten see the bees that form ties in with todays fav syncopated lady,all phair winters best form has come thios way round and its two poor runs have been left handed.Would be difficult to be confiendt but the horse is extremely well handicapped on the hamilton run also had deep applause 10ls behind at hamilton and thats 11/2.If it runs to that hamilton form 16/1 with 365 14s generally is massive i've had a small ew and will be trading on this as it really should be shorter in a poor race.

16./1 365 14s generally.
 
Trade was good again will ignore the johnston run and the dascombe horse hard to back in future not winning a mediocre race like that.

WEAPON OF CHOICE 16/1 boyles.

This looks a cracking trade,there are several lines of form through electra star and yojimbo that make this half its current odds.One line of form gives it the beating of regal salute and another just behind john biscuit,i've looked at the other formlines and can't possibly see how this can be 16s.The bottom one will probably be taken out and the price is best taken tonight,only way this won't go off shorter is if they declare the ground gd'fm.Like nothing tomorrow,no value at all on the york card and the rest of the cards are crap.
Hopefully this will be hammered.
 
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And left £60 of the profit on it at 16s as well :lol:,these prices were miles out plus the rain helped otherwise it wouldn't have been backed.:cool:
 
CIRCUMVENT 16/1 CORALS.

Seems a little to big with 4 non runners,looks like coming back to form and is extrememely well handicapped.Hughes gave it a very poor ride at ascot sitting off the pace travelling well then having to come wide when the race had gone.I havn't backed it as a single just to trade as the race looks very hot but 16s is bound to tempt ew punters.
 
Kempton 5.15 Ocean legend 25/1 sjames to trade 22/1 hills.
 
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Another horse priced up on its turf form ocean legend infact its run 16 times on the turf and never won
yet only 3 races back was third off 80 to new leyf at donny over an inadequate 6fs.Tomorrow night runs over its favourite c/d winning 4 from 9 and infact its last 5 runs over this c/d has been 3/1/3/1/3incredibly it returns to the track off an 11 pound lower mark than when third off 83.If the horse was guaranteed to run to any of its runs here would be 4 or 5/1 as horses such as rondeau aren't anywhere near as good yet that particular horse is priced at 11s just showing the ridiculous discrepancy.Also it has the two quickest times in the race over the c/d when it won off 82 clocked 1m24.22 off 9-2,has a bad draw tomorrow in 13 and this stable have cost me a lot of money lately withdrawing horses when i've got the prices so will be interesting to see what happens.I've backed it to trade but will have a very small single as well.

sjames 25/1
hills 22/1
 
Out at average of 19.5 i see there was two huge drifts on the carroll horses,no surprise there then!

3.0 WITCHRY.
Witchry looks overpriced in this race should be around the 5/1 mark on any ground,but if the rain arrives and there's supposed to be a deluge would look a 4/1 shot as its soft ground form over 6fs in recent times has been better.Its last 4 runs over 6fs been 1/2/1/0 and this time last year was first then followed it up with a second finishing 2ls infront of mata hari blue,thats 5/1 fav yet 4 pounds worse off in the weights.How witchry isn't fav i don't know,on all known form only 5 horses in the race have soft ground form as well making this look a great trade.I will have a little single as well,but i will be surprised if this isn't nearer the 9/2 mark by the off.

8/1 to trade boyles
 
Forgot to mention has run in the greys race the last 3 seasons and at least been placed on its follow up run!!!
 
Seems to be following me around hugh taylor two days on the bounce,still beating him to the prices am trading most of mine out as it looks as though there's hardly any rain there.If it does may shorten further but not worth sitting round all day waiting to see,left a small bet on it.:cool:
 
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