Daily picks.

Ayr gold cup The wagon wheel 25/1 sportingbet/ppower/sportsbook

The wagon wheel massive eyecatcher in the Beverley bullet today making up 10ls in the last fuirlong,the 3yr old receiving 9pound off the older horses but could well have been 2ls clear in another 100 yards so at least visually impressive,the time of the race wasn't great only .51 quicker than the weak class 5 on the card,but that makes the wagon weheels run even look better from that position.Was very disappoting in the consolation stewards I remember on the day thinking would goof fav around 4-5/1 but was easily beaten on soft ground drifting out to 10/1,previous to that was a cracking piece of form at chester hacking up by 3ls from avon breeze,avon breeze followed up by winning twice after that run and retired on a mark of 92 so could quite easily make a case for the fahey horse a 100+ horse at least on that form,that race was franked by the 5th and 6th finishing 2nd and 3rd in a fillies handicap for horses rated upto a hundred at haydock on next runs as well.Today the ground was over watered was nearer gd/gdsft at Beverley so maybe that's it's deal ground similarly at chester the ground was gd/gdsft,the horse is obviously progressive don't think there was any fluke about the run,think her mark will get raised to a hundred she looks one to follow for the future.Her participation may just be reliant on the ground not being desperate,was pretty soft ground at goodwood when running well below form, bar that type of ground then looks likely anything else will suit,kimberella was 5th in the ayr gold cup last season and the wagon wheel finished infront of it today,fahey has plenty of horses he could leave in the race so would be a big positive if she runs and also will probably point to the prices contracting considerably.Have had some poor lucj with ane post bets lately lots not running but with this trainer and looking thoroughly unexposed have to have some sort of interest..

25/1 sunbets never heard of them..
 
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Kempton 7.50

Secondo 14/1 lads/corals

Secondo has obviously had loads of problems with only 20 runs as 7 yrold onkly one run in 2015 and changed trainer four times,in 2014 was rated 92 and was third to pretend at wolves has other decent aw form although a long time ago from that season was 3rd to steelriver over tomorrows c/d in a decent time under 1m11 seconds.Ran two races for previous trainer in france on soft ground,not even convinced that was right ground as all its best form has been on quicker and the aw,made his reappearance after almost a year off when 8/13 to upstaging at Windsor on gd/gdsft ground for horses rated upto 105 for new trainer joe tuite, was unlucky not to be involved in finish getting baulked between two of the place finishers he would've been in the first four.
Next time out ran over 5fs that was on softer ground,don't think it really suited and the trip definitely didn't even though didn't run that badly behind Atletico, last time out ran at windsor in a really hot race,but the ground was very soft drifted like a barge huge prices.Those losses have enabled him to run off just 82 tomorrow,5 pound lower than the decent run on seasonal debut he obviously retains plenty of ability,has run well at this track as above 7 pound lower than when 3rd here in better race,betting will be interesting probably a bit to ask to predict when he runs to best but he could be well gambled the Windsor unlucky run would make him look overpriced.Most of these are pretty exposed it looks like one of those races any could win,oisin murphy rode a winner for joseph tuite today so stable in form ,could easily see this going off half its current price so could be a decent trade especially if stable think they have him spot on in a race for horses rated uopto just 85,get the feeling he needs a decent pace to be seen to best..Would aoso not put anyone off the other rag dutiful son has 5 c/d wins at the track and tomorrow will be off lowest ever mark over this c/d won here last season off 77 now off just 75,wouldn't surprise me if both of these moved above a copuple of the other runners currently in the betting,could well be another that trades well at 12/1...

11/1 365 10/1 hills/betfred/skybet/victor/totesport/betbright..
 
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Holy ****, 4-1 now. Had no access to web yesterday, missed it.
Obviously too short to punt now :rolleyes:

How about laying it hoping the right people aren't on (highly possible) and trading out when it drifts?
 
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gigilo said:
Kempton 7.50

Secondo 14/1 lads/corals

Secondo has obviously had loads of problems with only 20 runs as 7 yrold onkly one run in 2015 and changed trainer four times,in 2014 was rated 92 and was third to pretend at wolves has other decent aw form although a long time ago from that season was 3rd to steelriver over tomorrows c/d in a decent time under 1m11 seconds.Ran two races for previous trainer in france on soft ground,not even convinced that was right ground as all its best form has been on quicker and the aw,made his reappearance after almost a year off when 8/13 to upstaging at Windsor on gd/gdsft ground for horses rated upto 105 for new trainer joe tuite, was unlucky not to be involved in finish getting baulked between two of the place finishers he would've been in the first four.
Next time out ran over 5fs that was on softer ground,don't think it really suited and the trip definitely didn't even though didn't run that badly behind Atletico, last time out ran at windsor in a really hot race,but the ground was very soft drifted like a barge huge prices.Those losses have enabled him to run off just 82 tomorrow,5 pound lower than the decent run on seasonal debut he obviously retains plenty of ability,has run well at this track as above 7 pound lower than when 3rd here in better race,betting will be interesting probably a bit to ask to predict when he runs to best but he could be well gambled the Windsor unlucky run would make him look overpriced.Most of these are pretty exposed it looks like one of those races any could win,oisin murphy rode a winner for joseph tuite today so stable in form ,could easily see this going off half its current price so could be a decent trade especially if stable think they have him spot on in a race for horses rated uopto just 85,get the feeling he needs a decent pace to be seen to best..Would aoso not put anyone off the other rag dutiful son has 5 c/d wins at the track and tomorrow will be off lowest ever mark over this c/d won here last season off 77 now off just 75,wouldn't surprise me if both of these moved above a copuple of the other runners currently in the betting,could well be another that trades well at 12/1...

11/1 365 10/1 hills/betfred/skybet/victor/totesport/betbright..
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Backed Secondo all the way down to 9/1 and Dutiful son to 8/1 and laid off for a 1/4 of a barrow 5.6 and 5.7 and couple of nice free bets cracking trading race...
 
I thought you had lost your mind when you put that up but stick a fistful on anyway......hasn't raised a gallop in ages.............who gives a hoot now great back to lay...cheers
 
Won another few quid laying off at 6/4 in running as well,wouldv'e been worth fortunes if it had won will settle for it think the two I backed went off first and 2nd favs and they were the two rags...very slow pace which I thought might happen lost it the race very slow time..

Went 1.02 in running...
 
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London mile handicap Kempton saturday

Ripoll 20/1 ppower

Ripoll has won four times all on the aw looks an exposed handicapper,only rated 72 on the turf and no wins from 14 runs was a massive eyecatcher in the coral challenge handicap cantering with a furlong to go but getting no run was running against 100+ horses in that race that would've been by far best ever run on the turf and wouldn't have been a fluke as time was very good.It looks as though theseright handed tracks suit with three wins at kenpton and that eyecatching run at sandown,as all other form does not compare on straight tracks or different ground I've been waiting for him to run on a right handed track on fast ground but that looks more and more unlikey as season goes on.
Last time he won was in a 0-90 over Saturdays c/d as yet he hasn't produced any decent finishing times on aw runs but the win in may off 78 was still impressive giving the field 6ls off a slow pace and picking them up under hand's n; heels,thought it was quite interesting pat dobbs never went for the whip in the race and was very cionfident of reeling them in.Saturdays race has obviously quite a few horses that are unexposed the 20/1 might not seem overly generous on overall form but purely on the sandown run and back on fav surface there could still be some improvement to come on the surface,not worth going too mad as may not even run but if declared at the two day stage could possibly get a bigger price.It's a speculative bet in a highly competitive race,i think the horse can definitely win more races just a case if this grade is slightly too high..Mudallel has won a couplr of c/d handicaps recently,they havn't been great races but the time of its win last time out was pretty decent and off just 8-8 looks the one most open to progression..

20/1 365/sportsbook..
 
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yeah, won quite a bit myself. Always stick quite a few short lays in-play, they only get matched when they win but it worked out quite well today, would have loved it to
have won for those who followed but don't lay but hey hoh, excellent trade.....
 
gigilo said:
Ayr gold cup

One of the biggest eyecatchers recently was donjuan triumphant in the stewards at goodwood now with balding after being a group 2 winner with fahey,has just had the three runs with him and the last was the stewards cup,was rated 115 at one point ran off 106 in the stewards and now dropped another two pound.He was drawn 20 in the stewards had no chance from that draw held up everything that got a good pitch on the far rail was massive advantage,was only runner held up from near side to finish in the first 10 and still finishing strongly at finish.Shanghai glory is fav for the ayr gold cup was drawn 3 in the stewards and beat donjuan triumphant by 1 3/4ls there's now a tyrnaround of 4 pound in favour of donjuan triumphant and the likelyhood of no draw advantage,also has a 9 pound turnaround with growl as well for 2 1/2ls growl was drawn 8 in the race.
What he does need is soft, gd/sft ground so would not go overboard as for the last few seasons I've backed jack dexter and he never really got his ground,septembers have tended to be quite decent months weather wise,if there is some cut then there's no chance he will be going off 25/1 as the tipsters will be onto it after the goodwood run and he'd probably go off 14s 16s tops...

Donjuan triumphant 25/1 Betfred.totesport,corals..
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not fancy this today giggs?
 
It may not even run now,but taling all the 25s and 20s no reason why it should be bigger thab anything else in the race after winning that,nice trade in there wouldn't surprise me to see it 14s by end iof day..
 
Kempton 5.50

Mister music 14/1 365 12/1 hills

11/1 victor 10/1 totesport/lads/corals/betfred/betway/betbright..
 
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ew multiples small stakes speculative picks tomorrow think the betting will be interesting as they could be gambles or huge drifters as quite a few negatives but prices have tempted me in at very small £..


Kempton 5.50

Mister music 14/1 365 12/1 hills

Mister music hardly ever wins now,has never won on the aw from 7 runs but equally never run a bad race at Kempton hasn't been running badly either always seems to be out the back off a slow pace and finishing strongly,last time out over an inadequate 7fs big turnaround with wannabe friends a stone over a furlong further andf mister music has c/d form wanna be friends 4/1 fav.Three or four horses have the best times over this c/d he is one of them although there are at least one or two that could easily be better than these,it was only june 28th he was a staying on fourth
to chief of chiefs in this grade staying on not getting a run,that was off 78 tomorrow off 73 and with 3 pound claim down to 70.It's a very competitive race,hard to rule too many out but if he gets a decent pace to run at he could run well off this mark.Will be reliant on a decent pace to show his best..
If the less exposed runners don't get backed he could easily go off 7-8/1and looks a decent trade,Ernststavroblofeld the least unexposed 3yr old ran in a different class race here on aw debut was beat 5ls but on this surface could be more improvement to come,think this one will determione mister musics price as looks the most likeliest to be gambled with just 6 runs..

11/1 victor 10/1 totesport/lads/corals/betfred/betway/betbright

8.50

Banish 14/1 victor/ppower/betstar/boyles/sportsbook Sam's missile 20/1 ppower/lads 18/1 victor/lads/corals/boyles/betway/betstars

A couple that have run fast times over 1m3fs at the track,but they have been very inconsistent and there are two progressive types heading the market so maybe playing for just one place probably wouldn't have bothered with them but as both are bigger than I thought they would be
then worth doing at prices.Sam missile was 2nd in one of these qualifiers last season and time dipped below 2m18 and similarly banish beat mohatem off 85 last season over c/d wnning time 2m17.62 these times if at thier best would give them good ew chances..



Ascot 5.0

Big baz 14/1 365

Big baz showed a glimpse of form last time out at York,a strong running on 6th of 17 to flaming spear he's probably coming into form although just looking at his profile it wouldn't surprise me if something else is lined up for him during the autumn.The reason being he has run here three times and shown absolutely nothing,which is the opposite iof what you're looking for, at this price it's worth seeing tio find out,runs off 96 lowest mark since October 2014 on turf.Just looks a strange place to run and muir knows exactly how much ability this horse has and off this mark becomes dangerous,the betting will be interesting as 14/1 with a horsecoming what looked back into form looks a big price even if it may not like the track..

1.30

Speak in colours 10/30 skybet 3/1 365/betfred/ppower/totesport/betfred...

The form of speak in colours doesn't look upto much,running 3rd on debut on desperate ground at Nottingham heavy ground race was slow by 9 seconds not really sure what ground will be at ascot,looking more at the place side of things if ground is very slow and moore is booked for trainer in form.Not really going on form as its been let down,just thought the 6fs on slow stiff6fs might be negative for others..

KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!Backed it again with the drift on betfair and 1.45 a place,when it ran at notts the time wasn't that bad compared to guishans win,so was worth risking even though form hadn't worked iut covers most of my day and other dodgy picks..:ninja:

Musselburugh 7.05

Brandon castle 5/2 ppower/sportsbook

Archie Watson seems to have rejuvenated Brandon castle has won back to back races after looking on massive downgrade then last two runs for new trainer with HT applied and now sitting on 72,has only won three races so couldn't say looks well handicapped but this is no better than his last win at sailsbury and had plenty of place form in the high 70s.
 
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Hopefully covered the bases on this one. :)
Chocolate Box @ 6.00:D
Mister Music @ 10.00
Sam Missile @ 17.00
Banish @ 12.00
Kasperenko @ 11.00
Big Baz @ 11.00
Speak In Colours @ 4.00
Bombastic @ 5.00
Sacred Act @ 7.50
Brandon Castle @ 3.00
Trebles, 82 bets * £0.10
Plus a few other combos.
 
gigilo said:
London mile handicap Kempton saturday

Ripoll 20/1 ppower

Ripoll has won four times all on the aw looks an exposed handicapper,only rated 72 on the turf and no wins from 14 runs was a massive eyecatcher in the coral challenge handicap cantering with a furlong to go but getting no run was running against 100+ horses in that race that would've been by far best ever run on the turf and wouldn't have been a fluke as time was very good.It looks as though theseright handed tracks suit with three wins at kenpton and that eyecatching run at sandown,as all other form does not compare on straight tracks or different ground I've been waiting for him to run on a right handed track on fast ground but that looks more and more unlikey as season goes on.
Last time he won was in a 0-90 over Saturdays c/d as yet he hasn't produced any decent finishing times on aw runs but the win in may off 78 was still impressive giving the field 6ls off a slow pace and picking them up under hand's n; heels,thought it was quite interesting pat dobbs never went for the whip in the race and was very cionfident of reeling them in.Saturdays race has obviously quite a few horses that are unexposed the 20/1 might not seem overly generous on overall form but purely on the sandown run and back on fav surface there could still be some improvement to come on the surface,not worth going too mad as may not even run but if declared at the two day stage could possibly get a bigger price.It's a speculative bet in a highly competitive race,i think the horse can definitely win more races just a case if this grade is slightly too high..Mudallel has won a couplr of c/d handicaps recently,they havn't been great races but the time of its win last time out was pretty decent and off just 8-8 looks the one most open to progression..

20/1 365/sportsbook..
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Three books cut it too 16/1 worth keeping an eyeout incase bigger tomorrow..
 
Slowly run race ruined mister musics chances,did say in wriyte up that would need decent pace,thats two bets this week at the track still think there was a strange drift on it though out to 13s on betfair,overly competitive stuff at the moment and ground changes all the time might be a quiet patch for awhile.Havn't had a losing run this year,whether it's this month October or November bound to happen especially with the winter autumn/winter form changing just try and keep it as short as possible..





Wolves 8.30

Hussar ballad 12/1 ppower/sportsbook...


Hussar ballad very rarely wins bit of a veteran now hasn't won for a longtime has a c/d record of 6/66,3/65,3,67,3/65 and 4/65 so usually runs well over this c/d although rarely wins,last win was December 2015 but has won three on the aw.Tomorrow drops into a 0-60 now on that mark that's lowest since decemmber 2013 the claimer takes it down to 53 wghich is lowest ever mark,usually runs in 0-70s really if could produce anywhere near best should be 4-5/1 for this race tops.There is a possibility of it goinjg off near favourite although does run against quite a few in form,but that's probably negated that the trainer rarely has any winners but at least this one usually runs the same race,at least a decent ew chance..Am going to keep backing it see if I can make a few quid trading aswell as most of the turf racing looks like its going tio be on dodgy ground at ascot and haydock,will keep backing it dowen to 7/1 hopefully no dodgy druft tomorrow..

Thirsk 4.40

Start time 12/1 lads/corals..


Start time is an interesting runner,he could be ome for later in the autumn and there maybe a plan for him from the new midgley stable could only be speculative tomorrow but one I will be following closely over the next couple of months.The horse has had 9 lifetime runs 2015 was 2nd in a group 3 for sbs then only one run in 2016,jpined the midgley stable and first two runs last in both,ran in the consolation st wilifred last time out and showed as lot more promise,started on farside and came standside had no chance racing on the outer of the field eventually only 12th beaten 7ls but for the last furlong and a half jockey stopped riding and lost very little ground.Think he was struggling on the track and probably ground a little to quivk,those three runs have enabled him to drop 12 pound from 92 to 80 ground will be softer tomorrow he obviously has had some problems but looks to have loads of ability and the blinkers are on forst time tomorrow.These midgley horses when well handicapped invariably get heavily backed,the ripon run was a lot more promising than the result appeasrs and worth a small bet,its one I will be following for a while as he rarely purchases sprinters that don't come right at some point.With this stable it could go off 4/1 it could go off 25/1 very hard to get rihht..The race looks wide open although quick look has joined mick easterby from the Jarvis yard and has been staying on over 5fs getting its mark to drop a couple of pounds to get in this grade and is still lightly raced..
 
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What a surprise smashed into 3/1 and Midgley stable pull it,think it might be time for a little break hard enough trying to get a bet on without picks like this that are hard to find..
 
Sometimes I hate this filthy game...was just about to trade out for a lovely profit and the horse is pulled. What a surprise. All the stables are rotten.Great shout anyway Giggs :) you can't win em all when you're up against crooked stables and bookies.
 
Got my money back off Ripoll anyway on Quick look,huge prices considerung non runner of the fav to place as well, for 4 places got 2.9 places thought the lows would be an advantage there today and the 15 draws won thought quick look would've been near enough fav ashame it just got dione by the one..was 6/1 last night...

Made a few quid trading hussar ballad but nothing like was expecting..
 
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Curragh 2.0

Raucous 10/1 365/skybet/sportsbook/10bet/betway/corals 9/1 betstars/betfred/victor/ppower/totesport/lads/boyles/betway

Can't say I really fancy this but looks like being massively overbet and a decent trade so may as well do it,i put it up for the stewards after it running well behind outdo in the Wokingham 8th, but was 6ls behind the far side after a furlong and was out the back and stopped in run off 105 running on well at finish.Went to the stewards cup and got the 28 draw had absolutely no chance conceding at least 6ls at start from virtual standing start to follow field over to the far side was eventually 12th still running on beaten just over 4ls.Interesting was the 9th donjuan triumphant drawn 20 and from better position I put up for gold cup based on this run and raucous looked to concede and get a worse run than that one,donjuans franked the form recently winning listed race and one of the favs for the gold cup.Raucous then went to goodwood over 7fs which you can forgive any horse and over 7fs,he doesn't look straight forward and difficult to win with hung in the ascot race and has done previously,but drops in grade,moore rides,has the 22 draw although i'm not sure draw means that much anymore and he may need luck in rinning anyway,plus not sure whether he really wants softer ground now off 102.He could easily go off 5-6/1 in this race so looks decent trade anyway,may even go off a really stupid price..

10/1 corals..


Got to lay off at 8.4,money predictably came for it was easty enough to make a little profit on the race don't think i'd bother with the thing again till it gets back on decent ground was hanging yet again..
 
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gigilo said:
Slowly run race ruined mister musics chances,did say in wriyte up that would need decent pace,thats two bets this week at the track still think there was a strange drift on it though out to 13s on betfair,overly competitive stuff at the moment and ground changes all the time might be a quiet patch for awhile.Havn't had a losing run this year,whether it's this month October or November bound to happen especially with the winter autumn/winter form changing just try and keep it as short as possible..





Wolves 8.30

Hussar ballad 12/1 ppower/sportsbook...


Hussar ballad very rarely wins bit of a veteran now hasn't won for a longtime has a c/d record of 6/66,3/65,3,67,3/65 and 4/65 so usually runs well over this c/d although rarely wins,last win was December 2015 but has won three on the aw.Tomorrow drops into a 0-60 now on that mark that's lowest since decemmber 2013 the claimer takes it down to 53 wghich is lowest ever mark,usually runs in 0-70s really if could produce anywhere near best should be 4-5/1 for this race tops.There is a possibility of it goinjg off near favourite although does run against quite a few in form,but that's probably negated that the trainer rarely has any winners but at least this one usually runs the same race,at least a decent ew chance..Am going to keep backing it see if I can make a few quid trading aswell as most of the turf racing looks like its going tio be on dodgy ground at ascot and haydock,will keep backing it dowen to 7/1 hopefully no dodgy druft tomorrow..


KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAAAAAAAAAAAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Who the hel lays these horses,the best horse in the race,miles clear on speedfifgures and wuinsd exactly how I thought it should was backing it all last night and today won £400 trading and had £600ew at average of 10s unreal and still the layers were offering 10s,that's the beauty of unfashionable trainer if punjters just jnew how much classs difference there was incredible.Whereare the aw punters these days,that thing should've been 3/1 unreal it is...:lol::lol::lol::ninja: won by half the track!!!

Thirsk 4.40

Start time 12/1 lads/corals..


Start time is an interesting runner,he could be ome for later in the autumn and there maybe a plan for him from the new midgley stable could only be speculative tomorrow but one I will be following closely over the next couple of months.The horse has had 9 lifetime runs 2015 was 2nd in a group 3 for sbs then only one run in 2016,jpined the midgley stable and first two runs last in both,ran in the consolation st wilifred last time out and showed as lot more promise,started on farside and came standside had no chance racing on the outer of the field eventually only 12th beaten 7ls but for the last furlong and a half jockey stopped riding and lost very little ground.Think he was struggling on the track and probably ground a little to quivk,those three runs have enabled him to drop 12 pound from 92 to 80 ground will be softer tomorrow he obviously has had some problems but looks to have loads of ability and the blinkers are on forst time tomorrow.These midgley horses when well handicapped invariably get heavily backed,the ripon run was a lot more promising than the result appeasrs and worth a small bet,its one I will be following for a while as he rarely purchases sprinters that don't come right at some point.With this stable it could go off 4/1 it could go off 25/1 very hard to get rihht..The race looks wide open although quick look has joined mick easterby from the Jarvis yard and has been staying on over 5fs getting its mark to drop a couple of pounds to get in this grade and is still lightly raced..
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